WorldCupArena: Fine-Grained Evaluation of Language Models and Deep-Research Agents on Football Forecasting

Predicting a football match before kickoff requires more than knowing past results: a model must use changing information and make a clear prediction before the answer is available. We present WorldCupArena, a dynamic benchmark for language models and deep-research agents. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is its first evaluation, and the same process can be reused for future leagues and cups. Before each match, a model either receives a common evidence package or searches for information itself. It predicts the result and score, likely players and events, match statistics, and the outcome of the competition. After the match, these predictions are compared with the recorded result. We report result accuracy, exact-score accuracy, and a scoreline score that gives some credit when a predicted score is close but not exact, together with scores for the other prediction tasks. Across 104 matches and 13 systems, models with similar result accuracy differ more clearly on detailed predictions. Compared with betting-market and human-fan baselines, the best system shows only small gains in result and exact-score accuracy, but a clearer gain in Scoreline. New schedules can be added as they begin, allowing the benchmark to evaluate future models without using outcomes that are already known. Code, prompts, predictions, and evaluation scripts are open sourced at https://github.com/wzk1015/WorldCupArena.

Hölder Policy Optimisation

Group Relative Policy Optimisation (GRPO) enhances large language models by estimating advantages across a group of sampled trajectories. However, mapping these trajectory-level advantages to policy updates requires aggregating token-level probabilities within each sequence. Relying on a fixed aggregation mechanism for this step fundamentally limits the algorithm's adaptability. Empirically, we observe a critical trade-off: certain fixed aggregations frequently suffer from training collapse, while others fail to yield satisfactory performance. To resolve this, we propose \textbf{HölderPO}, a generalised policy optimisation framework unifying token-level probability aggregation via the Hölder mean. By explicitly modulating the parameter $p$, our framework provides continuous control over the trade-off between gradient concentration and variance bounds. Theoretically, we prove that a larger $p$ concentrates the gradient to amplify sparse learning signals, whereas a smaller $p$ strictly bounds gradient variance. Because no static configuration can universally resolve this concentration-stability trade-off, we instantiate the framework with a dynamic annealing algorithm that progressively schedules $p$ across the training lifecycle. Extensive evaluations demonstrate superior stability and convergence over existing baselines. Specifically, our approach achieves a state-of-the-art average accuracy of $54.9\%$ across multiple mathematical benchmarks, yielding a substantial $7.2\%$ relative gain over standard GRPO and secures an exceptional $93.8\%$ success rate on ALFWorld.