The Complexity Ceiling Benchmark: A Multi-Domain Evaluation of Sequential Reasoning Under Depth Scaling

We introduce the Complexity Ceiling Benchmark (CCB), a controlled evaluation of how language-model reasoning decays as the number of required sequential steps grows. CCB fixes the semantic content of a task and varies only its depth N in {5,...,50} across three structurally distinct regimes: grounded spatial state-tracking, abstract symbolic pointer manipulation, and transitive relational inference. Across 6,000 trials over five frontier and open-weight LLMs we find a consistent pattern of geometric per-step decay with widely separated domain ceilings: on the first two regimes the strongest models retain pd>0.92 across N=50; on the third every model collapses by N=5, with the best model's 50%-success horizon at H0.5~4.7 steps despite pd=0.863. A trace-level metric (TFBC) shows that 14.5% of correct answers across the benchmark are reached via incorrect intermediate reasoning. Forced verbose state-tracking does not move the ceiling (McNemar p=1.000), and the mean step at which reasoning first diverges, k*, predicts within-domain accuracy better than parameter count. CCB and the geometric decay model together reduce a model's long-horizon reasoning profile to one interpretable number per task family.

What Do Lorentz-Equivariant Jet Taggers Learn?

We study what Lorentz-equivariant jet taggers learn internally, using equivariance tests, linear probes and grade ablations across five models including L-GATr, L-GATr-slim and LLoCa-T. Linear probes show that equivariant models suppress frame-dependent pseudorapidity to zero while encoding jet mass and N-subjettiness strongly. Grade ablations on L-GATr reveal that bivector channels are negligible for top-quark tagging while vector-like channels are dominant but seed variable, consistent with the network exploiting multiple representational pathways. These results characterize which physical features and algebraic grade structures carry discriminative information in equivariant taggers and may inform future development of such models.

FinBalance: A Multi-Document Accounting Reconciliation Benchmark

Existing financial-NLP benchmarks mostly evaluate prepared artifacts such as filings, tables, or extracted values. Real accounting begins earlier: source documents must be reconciled into cited journal entries, aggregated into a balance sheet, and checked for contradictions. We introduce FinBalance, a multi-document accounting reconciliation benchmark built from source-document bundles across eight industries, three period types, and five difficulty levels. Human-authored business scenarios, accounting policies, tax/FX treatments, document schemas, distractors, and inconsistency templates are composed by a deterministic generator whose ledger produces journal entries,balance sheets, and 23 inconsistency-code labels. On a 710-record evaluation split, six contemporary LLMs reach at most 46% exact final-balance-sheet accuracy. Four models show a 26-41 pp gap between BS_exact, the model's reported balance sheet, and BS_recon, the balance sheet obtained by replaying its entries through our ledger. Models often recover numerically plausible entries but fail to bind them to supporting documents and aggregate them consistently. Citation-pressure prompting barely changes document-linking errors, while ledger-feedback ablations substantially improve reported balance sheets and expose inconsistency-detection trade-offs. Expert finance reviewers validate the benchmark design and labels.

Authority, Truth, and Citation Bias: A Large-Scale Multi-Domain Benchmark for Studying Epistemic Susceptibility in Large Language Models

Large language models are increasingly deployed in citation-augmented settings, yet the effect of citation presence on model behavior independent of factual content remains poorly understood. We introduce AuthorityBench, a 220,564-prompt multi-domain benchmark that isolates how citation-based authority signals influence epistemic behavior in LLMs. The benchmark uses a fully balanced 2x2 factorial design crossing claim veracity with citation veracity, the first to do so, across four domains (general knowledge, science, law, and medicine), with controlled variation over 40 prompt templates, four venue prestige tiers, and a country-coded author name dataset. Evaluating seven models on 12 structured research questions, we find that citation presence, whether real or fabricated, consistently increases hallucination rates relative to a no-citation baseline. The effect is strongest when fabricated citations accompany true claims, raising hallucination rates by 3 to 22 percentage points and reaching 35 to 77% in the general knowledge domain, while legal claims are comparatively robust and venue prestige and author demographics show negligible impact. All datasets and evaluation code are available at: https://github.com/floating-reeds/AuthorityBench

Where Computation Lives Inside TabPFN: Causal Localisation of Attention Head Function

We present the first causal mechanistic analysis of a tabular foundation model, investigating how TabPFN 2.5's feature wise attention heads distribute computation across layers. Using activation patching, ablation, and attention entropy across two synthetic regression datasets, we find clear temporal specialisation: one head's causal necessity dominates that of the others by 2 to 5 times at peak layer, with its dominant layer shifting across tasks of different complexity, while the remaining heads exhibit symmetric late layer profiles. Attention entropy and patching provide convergent evidence for the computationally active layers of the dominant head. We additionally investigate inference time steerability via contrastive activation steering, which fails to transfer across samples. We attribute this result to TabPFN's in context learning mechanism, which encodes task structure through context dependent attention rather than the stable parametric directions that make steering tractable in language models.

Mix, Don't Pick: Why Synthetic Corpus Composition Matters for Time Series Foundation Model Pretraining

Choosing the wrong synthetic generator for time-series foundation model pretraining is costly: under identical training budgets, the best and worst generators produce up to a $2\times$ gap in forecasting error, yet the field has no principled way to make this choice. The problem is compounded by the fact that generator rankings are not stable across architectures: across 11 generator families evaluated on Chronos-T5-Mini and Moirai-Small trained from scratch, we find that which generators are useful depends on the model architecture. Rather than solving the generator selection problem, we sidestep it: a simple equal-weight mixture of all generators matches or beats the best individual generator for both architectures, and composing this mixture with real data yields the strongest pretraining corpora overall. Synthetic pretraining is therefore a corpus composition problem, not a generator selection problem, and composition choices should be validated per model family rather than assumed to transfer.

GITCO: Gated Inference-Time Context Optimization in TSFMs

Patch-based Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) suffer from context poisoning: structurally anomalous patches capture disproportionate attention and silently degrade zero-shot forecast quality. We propose improving TSFM accuracy at inference time by optimizing the input context rather than modifying model weights. We present GITCO (Gated Inference-Time Context Optimization), a lightweight three-component framework: Gate, Router, and Critic that selectively identifies and suppresses harmful patches without any parameter updates. Evaluated on TimesFM 2.5 across 53 GIFT-Eval datasets under K-fold cross-validation, GITCO achieves an average +1.95% MASE reduction on TimesFM 2.5 while capturing 89.9% of the improvement upper bound. We introduce context sensitivity profiles as a new characterizable property of TSFMs: the mapping from time series meta-features to expected accuracy improvement under inference-time context intervention, shaped jointly by model architecture and the statistical structure of the data.

REGEN: Reference-Guided Synthetic Multivariate Time Series Generation for Forecasting

Training robust multivariate time series forecasting models requires large, diverse corpora, yet many real-world domains provide only a handful of observed sequences. Existing generators fail to resolve this mismatch: prior-based approaches (e.g., CauKer, TimePFN) produce domain-agnostic samples, while data-driven methods (e.g., TimeGAN) treat references as black-box supervision, forfeiting explicit control over periodic structure, local variability, and cross-variable dynamics. We propose ReGeN, a reference-guided generative pipeline that treats observed sequences not as examples to imitate, but as structural scaffolds for controllable synthesis. ReGeN decomposes each reference into three interpretable components: a phase-aligned periodic backbone capturing dominant domain morphology; per-variable stochastic residuals modeled with a deep-kernel Gaussian process; and lag-aware cross-variable dependencies injected through a structural causal model with fitted coupling coefficients. Sampling these components at controllable temperature broadens distributional coverage while preserving domain-grounded structure. We show that ReGeN-generated data consistently substitutes for real sibling data with minimal forecasting degradation, and in strongly periodic domains such as traffic, can outperform the real source itself. We further show that a foundation model pretrained on ReGeN corpora outperforms those pretrained on prior-based and data-driven synthetic alternatives. This suggests that in low-data regimes, how reference data is structurally exploited can matter as much as how much data is available.

"I Strongly Suspect This Website Is a Scam": Benchmarking PII Leakage and Detection without Defense in Autonomous Web Agents

Deceptive web content, widely instantiated across the internet and commonly known as \textit{social-engineering attacks}, manipulates autonomous web agents into submitting users' personally identifiable information (PII) to attacker-controlled endpoints. In this paper, we show that social-engineering attacks are highly effective at extracting critical-tier PII from frontier web agents, posing a severe risk to deployed agentic systems. To quantify this risk, we introduce \textbf{\textsc{Scammer4U}}, a pre-registered benchmark of 91 attacker-controlled environments and 10 benign-twin baselines, spanning 8 attack vectors and 16 site categories on an 8-axis factorial taxonomy that isolates the causal contribution of individual attack design factors. Across frontier agents, we find that critical-tier PII leakage reaches 54--93\% under no privacy guidance, compared to 0\% on benign-twin baselines, confirming that leakage is attack-attributable rather than incidental form-filling. Escalating prompt-level mitigation yields sharply model-dependent reductions across the four families and remains insufficient to reliably prevent critical PII submission at the pooled level. Most critically, we identify a detection--action gap: agents whose reasoning an independent LLM judge confirms has flagged the site as suspicious still submit critical PII in 35.9\% of sessions, versus 66.1\% when no suspicion is verbalized, a 30.2\% gap robust across all four model families. Our findings reveal that defenses conditioned on the agent's own recognition of an attack are gating on the wrong signal, motivating output-level interception of outbound submissions that operates independently of the agent's reasoning loop.

Cultural Fidelity in English-to-Hindi Translation: A Preservation-Fluency Frontier for Gender Recoverability

Generative translation systems are cultural technologies because they decide how socially meaningful cues are rendered within culturally specific grammatical systems. We study one concrete notion of successful cultural translation: when an English source explicitly encodes gender, an English-to-Hindi translation should preserve the recoverability of that cue unless the source itself is ambiguous. We evaluate this criterion on a 37,345-instance benchmark spanning twelve categories and show that five systems frequently erase gender through ergative and honorific constructions. We then introduce two mechanism-aware inference-time interventions. The first, the Source-Aware Reranker (SAR), prefers candidates that avoid gender-neutralizing syntax. The second, the Phenomenon-Aware Reranker (PAR), preserves gender through targeted lexical marking even when ergative syntax remains. Across GPT-4o-mini and Sarvam, PAR improves target-subset accuracy from 11.07% to 54.47% and from 15.99% to 49.66%, respectively. Human evaluation shows that PAR increases gender preservation from 10.3% to 81.3%, but reduces mean fluency from 4.36 to 3.37. These findings place the two interventions on a preservation and fluency frontier rather than supporting a single dominant solution, and show how culturally situated generation can require explicit tradeoffs among fidelity, fluency, and stylistic naturalness.