Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference

We introduce Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference (UMUI), a multimodal inference task spanning text, audio, and video, where models must produce calibrated probability estimates of hypotheses conditioned on a premise in any modality or combination. While uncertain inference has been explored in text, extension to other modalities has been limited to single-modality binary entailment judgments, leaving no framework for fine-grained probabilistic reasoning in or across other modalities. To address this, we curate a human-annotated evaluation set with scalar probability judgments across audio, visual, and audiovisual settings, and additionally evaluate on existing text and audio benchmarks. We introduce CLUE (Calibrated Latent Uncertainty Estimation), which combines self-consistent teacher calibration and distribution-based confidence probing to produce calibrated predictions. We demonstrate that our 3B-parameter model achieves equivalent or stronger performance than baselines up to 32B parameters across all modalities.

SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as multi-step decision-making agents, where effective reward design is essential for guiding learning. Although recent work explores various forms of reward shaping and step-level credit assignment, a key signal remains largely overlooked: the intrinsic uncertainty of LLMs. Uncertainty reflects model confidence, reveals where exploration is needed, and offers valuable learning cues even in failed trajectories. We introduce SELAUR: Self Evolving LLM Agent via Uncertainty-aware Rewards, a reinforcement learning framework that incorporates uncertainty directly into the reward design. SELAUR integrates entropy-, least-confidence-, and margin-based metrics into a combined token-level uncertainty estimate, providing dense confidence-aligned supervision, and employs a failure-aware reward reshaping mechanism that injects these uncertainty signals into step- and trajectory-level rewards to improve exploration efficiency and learning stability. Experiments on two benchmarks, ALFWorld and WebShop, show that our method consistently improves success rates over strong baselines. Ablation studies further demonstrate how uncertainty signals enhance exploration and robustness.

HLTCOE Evaluation Team at TREC 2025: VQA Track

The HLTCOE Evaluation team participated in TREC VQA's Answer Generation (AG) task, for which we developed a listwise learning framework that aims to improve semantic precision and ranking consistency in answer generation. Given a video-question pair, a base multimodal model first generates multiple candidate answers, which are then reranked using a model trained with a novel Masked Pointer Cross-Entropy Loss with Rank Weights. This objective integrates pointer-based candidate selection, rank-dependent weighting, and masked cross-entropy under vocabulary restriction, enabling stable and interpretable listwise optimization. By bridging generative modeling with discriminative ranking, our method produces coherent, fine-grained answer lists. Experiments reveal consistent gains in accuracy and ranking stability, especially for questions requiring temporal reasoning and semantic disambiguation.