A Lightweight Causal Model for Interpretable Subject-level Prediction

Recent years have seen a growing interest in methods for predicting a variable of interest, such as a subject's diagnosis, from medical images. Methods based on discriminative modeling excel at making accurate predictions, but are challenged in their ability to explain their decisions in anatomically meaningful terms. In this paper, we propose a simple technique for single-subject prediction that is inherently interpretable. It augments the generative models used in classical human brain mapping techniques, in which cause-effect relations can be encoded, with a multivariate noise model that captures dominant spatial correlations. Experiments demonstrate that the resulting model can be efficiently inverted to make accurate subject-level predictions, while at the same time offering intuitive causal explanations of its inner workings. The method is easy to use: training is fast for typical training set sizes, and only a single hyperparameter needs to be set by the user. Our code is available at https://github.com/chiara-mauri/Interpretable-subject-level-prediction.