PRiMeFlow: Capturing Complex Expression Heterogeneity in Perturbation Response Modelling

Predicting the effects of perturbations in-silico on cell state can identify drivers of cell behavior at scale and accelerate drug discovery. However, modeling challenges remain due to the inherent heterogeneity of single cell gene expression and the complex, latent gene dependencies. Here, we present PRiMeFlow, an end-to-end flow matching based approach to directly model the effects of genetic and small molecule perturbations in the gene expression space. The distribution-fitting approach taken by PRiMeFlow enables it to accurately approximate the empirical distribution of single-cell gene expression, which we demonstrate through extensive benchmarking inside PerturBench. Through ablation studies, we also validate important model design choices such as operating in gene expression space and parameterizing the velocity field with a U-Net architecture. The PRiMeFlow architecture was used as the basis for the model that won the Generalist Prize in the first ARC Virtual Cell Challenge.

Pathspace Kalman Filters with Dynamic Process Uncertainty for Analyzing Time-course Data

Kalman Filter (KF) is an optimal linear state prediction algorithm, with applications in fields as diverse as engineering, economics, robotics, and space exploration. Here, we develop an extension of the KF, called a Pathspace Kalman Filter (PKF) which allows us to a) dynamically track the uncertainties associated with the underlying data and prior knowledge, and b) take as input an entire trajectory and an underlying mechanistic model, and using a Bayesian methodology quantify the different sources of uncertainty. An application of this algorithm is to automatically detect temporal windows where the internal mechanistic model deviates from the data in a time-dependent manner. First, we provide theorems characterizing the convergence of the PKF algorithm. Then, we numerically demonstrate that the PKF outperforms conventional KF methods on a synthetic dataset lowering the mean-squared-error by several orders of magnitude. Finally, we apply this method to biological time-course dataset involving over 1.8 million gene expression measurements.