Random features models: a way to study the success of naive imputation

Constant (naive) imputation is still widely used in practice as this is a first easy-to-use technique to deal with missing data. Yet, this simple method could be expected to induce a large bias for prediction purposes, as the imputed input may strongly differ from the true underlying data. However, recent works suggest that this bias is low in the context of high-dimensional linear predictors when data is supposed to be missing completely at random (MCAR). This paper completes the picture for linear predictors by confirming the intuition that the bias is negligible and that surprisingly naive imputation also remains relevant in very low dimension.To this aim, we consider a unique underlying random features model, which offers a rigorous framework for studying predictive performances, whilst the dimension of the observed features varies.Building on these theoretical results, we establish finite-sample bounds on stochastic gradient (SGD) predictors applied to zero-imputed data, a strategy particularly well suited for large-scale learning.If the MCAR assumption appears to be strong, we show that similar favorable behaviors occur for more complex missing data scenarios.

Sliced-Wasserstein Estimation with Spherical Harmonics as Control Variates

The Sliced-Wasserstein (SW) distance between probability measures is defined as the average of the Wasserstein distances resulting for the associated one-dimensional projections. As a consequence, the SW distance can be written as an integral with respect to the uniform measure on the sphere and the Monte Carlo framework can be employed for calculating the SW distance. Spherical harmonics are polynomials on the sphere that form an orthonormal basis of the set of square-integrable functions on the sphere. Putting these two facts together, a new Monte Carlo method, hereby referred to as Spherical Harmonics Control Variates (SHCV), is proposed for approximating the SW distance using spherical harmonics as control variates. The resulting approach is shown to have good theoretical properties, e.g., a no-error property for Gaussian measures under a certain form of linear dependency between the variables. Moreover, an improved rate of convergence, compared to Monte Carlo, is established for general measures. The convergence analysis relies on the Lipschitz property associated to the SW integrand. Several numerical experiments demonstrate the superior performance of SHCV against state-of-the-art methods for SW distance computation.

Compression with Exact Error Distribution for Federated Learning

Compression schemes have been extensively used in Federated Learning (FL) to reduce the communication cost of distributed learning. While most approaches rely on a bounded variance assumption of the noise produced by the compressor, this paper investigates the use of compression and aggregation schemes that produce a specific error distribution, e.g., Gaussian or Laplace, on the aggregated data. We present and analyze different aggregation schemes based on layered quantizers achieving exact error distribution. We provide different methods to leverage the proposed compression schemes to obtain compression-for-free in differential privacy applications. Our general compression methods can recover and improve standard FL schemes with Gaussian perturbations such as Langevin dynamics and randomized smoothing.

Proving Linear Mode Connectivity of Neural Networks via Optimal Transport

The energy landscape of high-dimensional non-convex optimization problems is crucial to understanding the effectiveness of modern deep neural network architectures. Recent works have experimentally shown that two different solutions found after two runs of a stochastic training are often connected by very simple continuous paths (e.g., linear) modulo a permutation of the weights. In this paper, we provide a framework theoretically explaining this empirical observation. Based on convergence rates in Wasserstein distance of empirical measures, we show that, with high probability, two wide enough two-layer neural networks trained with stochastic gradient descent are linearly connected. Additionally, we express upper and lower bounds on the width of each layer of two deep neural networks with independent neuron weights to be linearly connected. Finally, we empirically demonstrate the validity of our approach by showing how the dimension of the support of the weight distribution of neurons, which dictates Wasserstein convergence rates is correlated with linear mode connectivity.

Compressed and distributed least-squares regression: convergence rates with applications to Federated Learning

In this paper, we investigate the impact of compression on stochastic gradient algorithms for machine learning, a technique widely used in distributed and federated learning. We underline differences in terms of convergence rates between several unbiased compression operators, that all satisfy the same condition on their variance, thus going beyond the classical worst-case analysis. To do so, we focus on the case of least-squares regression (LSR) and analyze a general stochastic approximation algorithm for minimizing quadratic functions relying on a random field. We consider weak assumptions on the random field, tailored to the analysis (specifically, expected H\"older regularity), and on the noise covariance, enabling the analysis of various randomizing mechanisms, including compression. We then extend our results to the case of federated learning. More formally, we highlight the impact on the convergence of the covariance $\mathfrak{C}_{\mathrm{ania}}$ of the additive noise induced by the algorithm. We demonstrate despite the non-regularity of the stochastic field, that the limit variance term scales with $\mathrm{Tr}(\mathfrak{C}_{\mathrm{ania}} H^{-1})/K$ (where $H$ is the Hessian of the optimization problem and $K$ the number of iterations) generalizing the rate for the vanilla LSR case where it is $\sigma^2 \mathrm{Tr}(H H^{-1}) / K = \sigma^2 d / K$ (Bach and Moulines, 2013). Then, we analyze the dependency of $\mathfrak{C}_{\mathrm{ania}}$ on the compression strategy and ultimately its impact on convergence, first in the centralized case, then in two heterogeneous FL frameworks.

Conformal Prediction with Missing Values

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Stochastic Approximation Beyond Gradient for Signal Processing and Machine Learning

Stochastic approximation (SA) is a classical algorithm that has had since the early days a huge impact on signal processing, and nowadays on machine learning, due to the necessity to deal with a large amount of data observed with uncertainties. An exemplar special case of SA pertains to the popular stochastic (sub)gradient algorithm which is the working horse behind many important applications. A lesser-known fact is that the SA scheme also extends to non-stochastic-gradient algorithms such as compressed stochastic gradient, stochastic expectation-maximization, and a number of reinforcement learning algorithms. The aim of this article is to overview and introduce the non-stochastic-gradient perspectives of SA to the signal processing and machine learning audiences through presenting a design guideline of SA algorithms backed by theories. Our central theme is to propose a general framework that unifies existing theories of SA, including its non-asymptotic and asymptotic convergence results, and demonstrate their applications on popular non-stochastic-gradient algorithms. We build our analysis framework based on classes of Lyapunov functions that satisfy a variety of mild conditions. We draw connections between non-stochastic-gradient algorithms and scenarios when the Lyapunov function is smooth, convex, or strongly convex. Using the said framework, we illustrate the convergence properties of the non-stochastic-gradient algorithms using concrete examples. Extensions to the emerging variance reduction techniques for improved sample complexity will also be discussed.

FLamby: Datasets and Benchmarks for Cross-Silo Federated Learning in Realistic Healthcare Settings

Federated Learning (FL) is a novel approach enabling several clients holding sensitive data to collaboratively train machine learning models, without centralizing data. The cross-silo FL setting corresponds to the case of few ($2$--$50$) reliable clients, each holding medium to large datasets, and is typically found in applications such as healthcare, finance, or industry. While previous works have proposed representative datasets for cross-device FL, few realistic healthcare cross-silo FL datasets exist, thereby slowing algorithmic research in this critical application. In this work, we propose a novel cross-silo dataset suite focused on healthcare, FLamby (Federated Learning AMple Benchmark of Your cross-silo strategies), to bridge the gap between theory and practice of cross-silo FL. FLamby encompasses 7 healthcare datasets with natural splits, covering multiple tasks, modalities, and data volumes, each accompanied with baseline training code. As an illustration, we additionally benchmark standard FL algorithms on all datasets. Our flexible and modular suite allows researchers to easily download datasets, reproduce results and re-use the different components for their research. FLamby is available at~\url{www.github.com/owkin/flamby}.

Adaptive Conformal Predictions for Time Series

Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works tackled this issue, we argue that Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI, Gibbs and Cand{\`e}s, 2021), developed for distribution-shift time series, is a good procedure for time series with general dependency. We theoretically analyse the impact of the learning rate on its efficiency in the exchangeable and auto-regressive case. We propose a parameter-free method, AgACI, that adaptively builds upon ACI based on online expert aggregation. We lead extensive fair simulations against competing methods that advocate for ACI's use in time series. We conduct a real case study: electricity price forecasting. The proposed aggregation algorithm provides efficient prediction intervals for day-ahead forecasting. All the code and data to reproduce the experiments is made available.

Minimax rate of consistency for linear models with missing values

Missing values arise in most real-world data sets due to the aggregation of multiple sources and intrinsically missing information (sensor failure, unanswered questions in surveys...). In fact, the very nature of missing values usually prevents us from running standard learning algorithms. In this paper, we focus on the extensively-studied linear models, but in presence of missing values, which turns out to be quite a challenging task. Indeed, the Bayes rule can be decomposed as a sum of predictors corresponding to each missing pattern. This eventually requires to solve a number of learning tasks, exponential in the number of input features, which makes predictions impossible for current real-world datasets. First, we propose a rigorous setting to analyze a least-square type estimator and establish a bound on the excess risk which increases exponentially in the dimension. Consequently, we leverage the missing data distribution to propose a new algorithm, andderive associated adaptive risk bounds that turn out to be minimax optimal. Numerical experiments highlight the benefits of our method compared to state-of-the-art algorithms used for predictions with missing values.