Towards a Unified Analysis of Neural Networks in Nonparametric Instrumental Variable Regression: Optimization and Generalization

We establish the first global convergence result of neural networks for two stage least squares (2SLS) approach in nonparametric instrumental variable regression (NPIV). This is achieved by adopting a lifted perspective through mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD), unlike standard MFLD, however, our setting of 2SLS entails a \emph{bilevel} optimization problem in the space of probability measures. To address this challenge, we leverage the penalty gradient approach recently developed for bilevel optimization which formulates bilevel optimization as a Lagrangian problem. This leads to a novel fully first-order algorithm, termed \texttt{F$^2$BMLD}. Apart from the convergence bound, we further provide a generalization bound, revealing an inherent trade-off in the choice of the Lagrange multiplier between optimization and statistical guarantees. Finally, we empirically validate the effectiveness of the proposed method on an offline reinforcement learning benchmark.

Provable Benefit of Curriculum in Transformer Tree-Reasoning Post-Training

Recent curriculum techniques in the post-training stage of LLMs have been widely observed to outperform non-curriculum approaches in enhancing reasoning performance, yet a principled understanding of why and to what extent they work remains elusive. To address this gap, we develop a theoretical framework grounded in the intuition that progressively learning through manageable steps is more efficient than directly tackling a hard reasoning task, provided each stage stays within the model's effective competence. Under mild complexity conditions linking consecutive curriculum stages, we show that curriculum post-training avoids the exponential complexity bottleneck. To substantiate this result, drawing insights from the Chain-of-Thoughts (CoTs) solving mathematical problems such as Countdown and parity, we model CoT generation as a states-conditioned autoregressive reasoning tree, define a uniform-branching base model to capture pretrained behavior, and formalize curriculum stages as either depth-increasing (longer reasoning chains) or hint-decreasing (shorter prefixes) subtasks. Our analysis shows that, under outcome-only reward signals, reinforcement learning finetuning achieves high accuracy with polynomial sample complexity, whereas direct learning suffers from an exponential bottleneck. We further establish analogous guarantees for test-time scaling, where curriculum-aware querying reduces both reward oracle calls and sampling cost from exponential to polynomial order.

Consistency Is Not Always Correct: Towards Understanding the Role of Exploration in Post-Training Reasoning

Foundation models exhibit broad knowledge but limited task-specific reasoning, motivating post-training strategies such as RLVR and inference scaling with outcome or process reward models (ORM/PRM). While recent work highlights the role of exploration and entropy stability in improving pass@K, empirical evidence points to a paradox: RLVR and ORM/PRM typically reinforce existing tree-like reasoning paths rather than expanding the reasoning scope, raising the question of why exploration helps at all if no new patterns emerge. To reconcile this paradox, we adopt the perspective of Kim et al. (2025), viewing easy (e.g., simplifying a fraction) versus hard (e.g., discovering a symmetry) reasoning steps as low- versus high-probability Markov transitions, and formalize post-training dynamics through Multi-task Tree-structured Markov Chains (TMC). In this tractable model, pretraining corresponds to tree expansion, while post-training corresponds to chain-of-thought reweighting. We show that several phenomena recently observed in empirical studies arise naturally in this setting: (1) RLVR induces a squeezing effect, reducing reasoning entropy and forgetting some correct paths; (2) population rewards of ORM/PRM encourage consistency rather than accuracy, thereby favoring common patterns; and (3) certain rare, high-uncertainty reasoning paths by the base model are responsible for solving hard problem instances. Together, these explain why exploration -- even when confined to the base model's reasoning scope -- remains essential: it preserves access to rare but crucial reasoning traces needed for difficult cases, which are squeezed out by RLVR or unfavored by inference scaling. Building on this, we further show that exploration strategies such as rejecting easy instances and KL regularization help preserve rare reasoning traces. Empirical simulations corroborate our theoretical results.

Statistical Analysis of the Sinkhorn Iterations for Two-Sample Schrödinger Bridge Estimation

The Schr\"odinger bridge problem seeks the optimal stochastic process that connects two given probability distributions with minimal energy modification. While the Sinkhorn algorithm is widely used to solve the static optimal transport problem, a recent work (Pooladian and Niles-Weed, 2024) proposed the Sinkhorn bridge, which estimates Schr\"odinger bridges by plugging optimal transport into the time-dependent drifts of SDEs, with statistical guarantees in the one-sample estimation setting where the true source distribution is fully accessible. In this work, to further justify this method, we study the statistical performance of intermediate Sinkhorn iterations in the two-sample estimation setting, where only finite samples from both source and target distributions are available. Specifically, we establish a statistical bound on the squared total variation error of Sinkhorn bridge iterations: $O(1/m+1/n + r^{4k})~(r \in (0,1))$, where $m$ and $n$ are the sample sizes from the source and target distributions, respectively, and $k$ is the number of Sinkhorn iterations. This result provides a theoretical guarantee for the finite-sample performance of the Schr\"odinger bridge estimator and offers practical guidance for selecting sample sizes and the number of Sinkhorn iterations. Notably, our theoretical results apply to several representative methods such as [SF]$^2$M, DSBM-IMF, BM2, and LightSB(-M) under specific settings, through the previously unnoticed connection between these estimators.

Uniform convergence of the smooth calibration error and its relationship with functional gradient

Calibration is a critical requirement for reliable probabilistic prediction, especially in high-risk applications. However, the theoretical understanding of which learning algorithms can simultaneously achieve high accuracy and good calibration remains limited, and many existing studies provide empirical validation or a theoretical guarantee in restrictive settings. To address this issue, in this work, we focus on the smooth calibration error (CE) and provide a uniform convergence bound, showing that the smooth CE is bounded by the sum of the smooth CE over the training dataset and a generalization gap. We further prove that the functional gradient of the loss function can effectively control the training smooth CE. Based on this framework, we analyze three representative algorithms: gradient boosting trees, kernel boosting, and two-layer neural networks. For each, we derive conditions under which both classification and calibration performances are simultaneously guaranteed. Our results offer new theoretical insights and practical guidance for designing reliable probabilistic models with provable calibration guarantees.

Propagation of Chaos for Mean-Field Langevin Dynamics and its Application to Model Ensemble

Mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) is an optimization method derived by taking the mean-field limit of noisy gradient descent for two-layer neural networks in the mean-field regime. Recently, the propagation of chaos (PoC) for MFLD has gained attention as it provides a quantitative characterization of the optimization complexity in terms of the number of particles and iterations. A remarkable progress by Chen et al. (2022) showed that the approximation error due to finite particles remains uniform in time and diminishes as the number of particles increases. In this paper, by refining the defective log-Sobolev inequality -- a key result from that earlier work -- under the neural network training setting, we establish an improved PoC result for MFLD, which removes the exponential dependence on the regularization coefficient from the particle approximation term of the optimization complexity. As an application, we propose a PoC-based model ensemble strategy with theoretical guarantees.

Direct Distributional Optimization for Provable Alignment of Diffusion Models

We introduce a novel alignment method for diffusion models from distribution optimization perspectives while providing rigorous convergence guarantees. We first formulate the problem as a generic regularized loss minimization over probability distributions and directly optimize the distribution using the Dual Averaging method. Next, we enable sampling from the learned distribution by approximating its score function via Doob's $h$-transform technique. The proposed framework is supported by rigorous convergence guarantees and an end-to-end bound on the sampling error, which imply that when the original distribution's score is known accurately, the complexity of sampling from shifted distributions is independent of isoperimetric conditions. This framework is broadly applicable to general distribution optimization problems, including alignment tasks in Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback (RLHF), Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), and Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO). We empirically validate its performance on synthetic and image datasets using the DPO objective.

Provably Transformers Harness Multi-Concept Word Semantics for Efficient In-Context Learning

Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) have displayed remarkable creative prowess and emergence capabilities. Existing empirical studies have revealed a strong connection between these LLMs' impressive emergence abilities and their in-context learning (ICL) capacity, allowing them to solve new tasks using only task-specific prompts without further fine-tuning. On the other hand, existing empirical and theoretical studies also show that there is a linear regularity of the multi-concept encoded semantic representation behind transformer-based LLMs. However, existing theoretical work fail to build up an understanding of the connection between this regularity and the innovative power of ICL. Additionally, prior work often focuses on simplified, unrealistic scenarios involving linear transformers or unrealistic loss functions, and they achieve only linear or sub-linear convergence rates. In contrast, this work provides a fine-grained mathematical analysis to show how transformers leverage the multi-concept semantics of words to enable powerful ICL and excellent out-of-distribution ICL abilities, offering insights into how transformers innovate solutions for certain unseen tasks encoded with multiple cross-concept semantics. Inspired by empirical studies on the linear latent geometry of LLMs, the analysis is based on a concept-based low-noise sparse coding prompt model. Leveraging advanced techniques, this work showcases the exponential 0-1 loss convergence over the highly non-convex training dynamics, which pioneeringly incorporates the challenges of softmax self-attention, ReLU-activated MLPs, and cross-entropy loss. Empirical simulations corroborate the theoretical findings.

Improved Particle Approximation Error for Mean Field Neural Networks

Mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) minimizes an entropy-regularized nonlinear convex functional defined over the space of probability distributions. MFLD has gained attention due to its connection with noisy gradient descent for mean-field two-layer neural networks. Unlike standard Langevin dynamics, the nonlinearity of the objective functional induces particle interactions, necessitating multiple particles to approximate the dynamics in a finite-particle setting. Recent works (Chen et al., 2022; Suzuki et al., 2023b) have demonstrated the uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for MFLD, showing that the gap between the particle system and its mean-field limit uniformly shrinks over time as the number of particles increases. In this work, we improve the dependence on logarithmic Sobolev inequality (LSI) constants in their particle approximation errors, which can exponentially deteriorate with the regularization coefficient. Specifically, we establish an LSI-constant-free particle approximation error concerning the objective gap by leveraging the problem structure in risk minimization. As the application, we demonstrate improved convergence of MFLD, sampling guarantee for the mean-field stationary distribution, and uniform-in-time Wasserstein propagation of chaos in terms of particle complexity.

Convergence of mean-field Langevin dynamics: Time and space discretization, stochastic gradient, and variance reduction

The mean-field Langevin dynamics (MFLD) is a nonlinear generalization of the Langevin dynamics that incorporates a distribution-dependent drift, and it naturally arises from the optimization of two-layer neural networks via (noisy) gradient descent. Recent works have shown that MFLD globally minimizes an entropy-regularized convex functional in the space of measures. However, all prior analyses assumed the infinite-particle or continuous-time limit, and cannot handle stochastic gradient updates. We provide an general framework to prove a uniform-in-time propagation of chaos for MFLD that takes into account the errors due to finite-particle approximation, time-discretization, and stochastic gradient approximation. To demonstrate the wide applicability of this framework, we establish quantitative convergence rate guarantees to the regularized global optimal solution under (i) a wide range of learning problems such as neural network in the mean-field regime and MMD minimization, and (ii) different gradient estimators including SGD and SVRG. Despite the generality of our results, we achieve an improved convergence rate in both the SGD and SVRG settings when specialized to the standard Langevin dynamics.