Multimodal Hidden Markov Models for Persistent Emotional State Tracking

Tracking an interpretable emotional arc of a conversation via the sentiment of individual utterances processed as a whole is central to both understanding and guiding communication in applied, especially clinical, conversational contexts. Existing approaches to emotion recognition operate at the utterance level, obscuring the persistent phases that characterize real conversational dynamics. We propose a lightweight framework that models conversational emotion as a sequence of latent emotional regimes using sticky factorial HDP-HMMs over multimodal valence-arousal representations derived from simultaneous video, audio and textual input. We evaluate the quality of regime prediction using LLM-as-a-Judge, geometric, and temporal consistency metrics, demonstrating that the sticky HDP-HMM produces more interpretable regime sequences than the baseline Gaussian HMM at a fraction of the computational cost of LLM-based dialogue state tracking methods. In addition, Question-Answer experiments in a clinical dataset suggest that meaningful emotional phases can reliably be recovered from multimodal valence-arousal trajectories and used to improve the quality of LLM responses in unstable affective regimes via context augmentation. This framework thus opens a path toward interpretable, lightweight, and actionable analysis of conversational emotion dynamics at scale.

Correcting Selection Bias in Sparse User Feedback for Large Language Model Quality Estimation: A Multi-Agent Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

[Abridged] Production LLM deployments receive feedback from a non-random fraction of users: thumbs sit mostly in the tails of the satisfaction distribution, and a naive average over them can land 40-50 percentage points away from true system quality. We treat this as a topic- and sentiment- stratified selection-bias problem and propose a three-agent hierarchical Bayesian pipeline that does not require ground-truth labels on individual interactions. A Topic Clustering Agent partitions the stream via UMAP + HDBSCAN over text embeddings; a Bias Modeling Agent fits a two-stage hierarchical Beta-Binomial under NUTS, inferring per-topic selection rates $s_c$ and quality $q_c$ with partial pooling; a Synthesis Agent reweights $q_c$ by true topic prevalence $\hatπ_c = n_c/N$ to report a bias-corrected aggregate posterior $\bar Q = \sum_c \hatπ_c q_c$ with credible interval, plus drift signals for online recalibration. Validation uses UltraFeedback (N=10,232 retained interactions, $C=18$ clusters, $Q^\star=0.6249$) with simulated topic- and sentiment-dependent selection biases. We compare five Bayesian variants against Naive and IPW baselines. A mild prior on the feedback channel (typical positive-feedback rate and negative-to-positive ratio, both readable from any production dashboard without labels) keeps Hierarchical-Informed within 4-13 pp of $Q^\star$ as the bias ratio sweeps from 1:1 to 30:1, with 95% credible intervals covering $Q^\star$ in 50/50 random-seed replicates at $κ_{\max}=10$. Without channel-side priors, every weak-prior variant misses $Q^\star$ by 22-33 pp: the per-cluster sufficient statistics admit a one-parameter family of equally good fits, and the prior on the bias channel (not on latent quality) is what breaks the degeneracy.

The Algorithmic Caricature: Auditing LLM-Generated Political Discourse Across Crisis Events

Large Language Models (LLMs) can generate fluent political text at scale, raising concerns about synthetic discourse during crises and social conflict. Existing AI-text detection often focuses on sentence-level cues such as perplexity, burstiness, or token irregularities, but these signals may weaken as generative systems improve. We instead adopt a Computational Social Science perspective and ask whether synthetic political discourse behaves like an observed online population. We construct a paired corpus of 1,789,406 posts across nine crisis events: COVID-19, the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, the 2020 and 2024 U.S. elections, Dobbs/Roe v. Wade, the 2020 BLM protests, U.S. midterms, the Utah shooting, and the U.S.-Iran war. For each event, we compare observed discourse from social platforms with synthetic discourse generated for the same context. We evaluate four dimensions: emotional intensity, structural regularity, lexical-ideological framing, and cross-event dependency, using mean gaps and dispersion evidence. Across events, synthetic discourse is fluent but population-level unrealistic. It is generally more negative and less dispersed in sentiment, structurally more regular, and lexically more abstract than observed discourse. Observed discourse instead shows broader emotional variation, longer-tailed structural distributions, and more context-specific, colloquial lexical markers. These differences are event-dependent: larger for fast-moving, decentralized crises and smaller for formal or institutionally mediated events. We summarize them with a simple event-level measure, the Caricature Gap. Our findings suggest that the main limitation of synthetic political discourse is not grammar or fluency, but reduced population realism. Population-level auditing complements traditional text-detection and provides a CSS framework for evaluating the social realism of generated discourse.

Output Composability of QLoRA PEFT Modules for Plug-and-Play Attribute-Controlled Text Generation

Parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) techniques offer task-specific fine-tuning at a fraction of the cost of full fine-tuning, but require separate fine-tuning for every new task (combination). In this paper, we explore three ways of generalising beyond single-task training/inference: (i) training on combinations of multiple, related datasets; (ii) at inference, composing the weight matrices of separately trained PEFT modules; and (iii) at inference, composing the outputs of separately trained PEFT modules. We test these approaches on three different LLMs, QLoRA as the PEFT technique, and three sets of controlled text generation datasets for sentiment control, topic control, and multi-attribute control. We find that summing PEFT module outputs is a particularly strong composition method, which consistently either outperforms or matches the performance of alternative approaches. This is the case even when comparing against single-task specialised modules on the single-task test set, where three-module output composition achieves an average 2% point performance increase across all models for sentiment control.

Persistent and Conversational Multi-Method Explainability for Trustworthy Financial AI

Financial institutions increasingly require AI explanations that are persistent, cross-validated across methods, and conversationally accessible to human decision-makers. We present an architecture for human-centered explainable AI in financial sentiment analysis that combines three contributions. First, we treat XAI artifacts -- LIME feature attributions, occlusion-based word importance scores, and saliency heatmaps -- as persistent, searchable objects in distributed S3-compatible storage with structured metadata and natural-language summaries, enabling semantic retrieval over explanation history and automatic index reconstruction after system failures. Second, we enable multi-method explanation triangulation, where a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) assistant compares and synthesizes results from multiple XAI methods applied to the same prediction, allowing users to assess explanation robustness through natural-language dialogue. Third, we evaluate the faithfulness of generated explanations using automated checks over grounding completeness, hallucinated claims, and method-attribution behavior. We demonstrate the architecture on an EXTRA-BRAIN financial sentiment analysis pipeline using FinBERT predictions and present evaluation results showing that constrained prompting reduces hallucination rate by 36\% and increases method-attribution citations by 73\% compared to naive prompting. We discuss implications for trustworthy, human-centered AI services in regulated financial environments.

The Association of Transformer-based Sentiment Analysis with Symptom Distress and Deterioration in Routine Psychotherapy Care

Sentiment analysis has been of long-standing interest in psychotherapy research. Recently, the Transformer deep learning architecture has produced text-based sentiment analysis models that are highly accurate and context-aware. These models have been explored as proxies for emotion measurement instruments in psychotherapy, but not investigated as stand-alone psychometric tools. Using proposed utterance-level and session-level sentiment features derived from a fine-grained sentiment model on a large corpus of psychotherapy sessions (N = 751), we investigate the distribution of session aggregated sentiment scores. Further, we characterize the relationship of these features to individual components and the overall score of the OQ-45 instrument and find that this sentiment feature is most strongly correlated to components related to emotional valence in directionally intuitive ways. Finally, we report that there are statistically significant differences between the sentiment distributions for patients flagged as at risk of deterioration or dropping out of care via either the OQ Rational or Empirical outcome models. These correlations to a fully-validated psychometric instrument demonstrate that these proposed sentiment features are, at least, adjunctive measures of client distress and deterioration.

DECO-MWE: building a linguistic resource of Korean multiword expressions for feature-based sentiment analysis

This paper aims to construct a linguistic resource of Korean Multiword Expressions for Feature-Based Sentiment Analysis (FBSA): DECO-MWE. Dealing with multiword expressions (MWEs) has been a critical issue in FBSA since many constructs reveal lexical idiosyncrasy. To construct linguistic resources of sentiment MWEs efficiently, we utilize the Local Grammar Graph (LGG) methodology: DECO-MWE is formalized as a Finite-State Transducer that represents lexical-syntactic restrictions on MWEs. In this study, we built a corpus of cosmetics review texts, which show particularly frequent occurrences of MWEs. Based on an empirical examination of the corpus, four types of MWEs have been distinguished. The DECO-MWE thus covers the following four categories: Standard Polarity MWEs (SMWEs), Domain-Dependent Polarity MWEs (DMWEs), Compound Named Entity MWEs (EMWEs) and Compound Feature MWEs (FMWEs). The retrieval performance of the DECO-MWE shows 0.806 f-measure in the test corpus. This study brings a twofold outcome: first, a sizeable general-purpose polarity MWE lexicon, which may be broadly used in FBSA; second, a finite-state methodology adopted in this study to treat domain-dependent MWEs such as idiosyncratic polarity expressions, named entity expressions or feature expressions, and which may be reused in describing linguistic properties of other corpus domains.

ICT-NLP at SemEval-2026 Task 3: Less Is More -- Multilingual Encoder with Joint Training and Adaptive Ensemble for Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Regression

This paper describes our system to SemEval-2026 Task 3 Track A Subtask 1 on Dimensional Aspect Sentiment Regression (DimASR). We propose a lightweight and resource-efficient system built entirely on multilingual pre-trained encoders, without relying on LLMs or external corpora. We adopt joint multilingual and multi-domain training to facilitate cross-lingual transfer and alleviate data sparsity, introduce a bounded regression transformation that improves training stability while constraining predictions within the valid range, and employ an adaptive ensemble strategy via subset search to reduce prediction variance. Experimental results demonstrate that our system achieves strong and consistent performance, ranking 1st on zho-res, 2nd on zho-lap, and 3rd on jpn-hot, with all remaining datasets placed within the top half of participating teams.

Beyond Majority Voting: Agreement-Based Clustering to Model Annotator Perspectives in Subjective NLP Tasks

Disagreement in annotation is a common phenomenon in the development of NLP datasets and serves as a valuable source of insight. While majority voting remains the dominant strategy for aggregating labels, recent work has explored modeling individual annotators to preserve their perspectives. However, modeling each annotator is resource-intensive and remains underexplored across various NLP tasks. We propose an agreement-based clustering technique to model the disagreement between the annotators. We conduct comprehensive experiments in 40 datasets in 18 typologically diverse languages, covering three subjective NLP tasks: sentiment analysis, emotion classification, and hate speech detection. We evaluate four aggregation approaches: majority vote, ensemble, multi-label, and multitask. The results demonstrate that agreement-based clustering can leverage the full spectrum of annotator perspectives and significantly enhance classification performance in subjective NLP tasks compared to majority voting and individual annotator modeling. Regarding the aggregation approach, the multi-label and multitask approaches are better for modeling clustered annotators than an ensemble and model majority vote.

FinMoji: A Framework for Emoji-driven Sentiment Analysis in Financial Social Media

This paper explores the use of emojis in financial sentiment analysis, focusing on the social media platform StockTwits. Emojis, increasingly prevalent in digital communication, have potential as compact indicators of investor sentiment, which can be critical for predicting market trends. Our study examines whether emojis alone can serve as reliable proxies for financial sentiment and how they compare with traditional text-based analysis. We conduct a series of experiments using logistic regression and transformer models. We further analyze the performance, computational efficiency, and data requirements of emoji-based versus text-based sentiment classification. Using a balanced dataset of about 528,000 emoji-containing StockTwits posts, we find that emoji-only models achieve F1 approximately 0.75, lower than text-emoji combined models, which achieve F1 approximately 0.88, but with far lower computational cost. This is a useful feature in time-sensitive settings such as high-frequency trading. Furthermore, certain emojis and emoji pairs exhibit strong predictive power for market sentiment, demonstrating over 90 percent accuracy in predicting bullish or bearish trends. Finally, our research reveals large statistical differences in emoji usage between financial and general social media contexts, stressing the need for domain-specific sentiment analysis models.