Will You Be Aware? Eye Tracking-Based Modeling of Situational Awareness in Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) systems, while enhancing task performance through real-time guidance, pose risks of inducing cognitive tunneling-a hyperfocus on virtual content that compromises situational awareness (SA) in safety-critical scenarios. This paper investigates SA in AR-guided cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), where responders must balance effective compressions with vigilance to unpredictable hazards (e.g., patient vomiting). We developed an AR app on a Magic Leap 2 that overlays real-time CPR feedback (compression depth and rate) and conducted a user study with simulated unexpected incidents (e.g., bleeding) to evaluate SA, in which SA metrics were collected via observation and questionnaires administered during freeze-probe events. Eye tracking analysis revealed that higher SA levels were associated with greater saccadic amplitude and velocity, and with reduced proportion and frequency of fixations on virtual content. To predict SA, we propose FixGraphPool, a graph neural network that structures gaze events (fixations, saccades) into spatiotemporal graphs, effectively capturing dynamic attentional patterns. Our model achieved 83.0% accuracy (F1=81.0%), outperforming feature-based machine learning and state-of-the-art time-series models by leveraging domain knowledge and spatial-temporal information encoded in ET data. These findings demonstrate the potential of eye tracking for SA modeling in AR and highlight its utility in designing AR systems that ensure user safety and situational awareness.

Dependency Network-Based Portfolio Design with Forecasting and VaR Constraints

This study proposes a novel portfolio optimization framework that integrates statistical social network analysis with time series forecasting and risk management. Using daily stock data from the S&P 500 (2020-2024), we construct dependency networks via Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), transforming influence relationships into a cost-based network. Specifically, FEVD breaks down the VAR's forecast error variance to quantify how much each stock's shocks contribute to another's uncertainty information we invert to form influence-based edge weights in our network. By applying the Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) algorithm, we extract the core inter-stock structure and identify central stocks through degree centrality. A dynamic portfolio is constructed using the top-ranked stocks, with capital allocated based on Value at Risk (VaR). To refine stock selection, we incorporate forecasts from ARIMA and Neural Network Autoregressive (NNAR) models. Trading simulations over a one-year period demonstrate that the MST-based strategies outperform a buy-and-hold benchmark, with the tuned NNAR-enhanced strategy achieving a 63.74% return versus 18.00% for the benchmark. Our results highlight the potential of combining network structures, predictive modeling, and risk metrics to improve adaptive financial decision-making.

GeoOutageKG: A Multimodal Geospatiotemporal Knowledge Graph for Multiresolution Power Outage Analysis

Detecting, analyzing, and predicting power outages is crucial for grid risk assessment and disaster mitigation. Numerous outages occur each year, exacerbated by extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Existing outage data are typically reported at the county level, limiting their spatial resolution and making it difficult to capture localized patterns. However, it offers excellent temporal granularity. In contrast, nighttime light satellite image data provides significantly higher spatial resolution and enables a more comprehensive spatial depiction of outages, enhancing the accuracy of assessing the geographic extent and severity of power loss after disaster events. However, these satellite data are only available on a daily basis. Integrating spatiotemporal visual and time-series data sources into a unified knowledge representation can substantially improve power outage detection, analysis, and predictive reasoning. In this paper, we propose GeoOutageKG, a multimodal knowledge graph that integrates diverse data sources, including nighttime light satellite image data, high-resolution spatiotemporal power outage maps, and county-level timeseries outage reports in the U.S. We describe our method for constructing GeoOutageKG by aligning source data with a developed ontology, GeoOutageOnto. Currently, GeoOutageKG includes over 10.6 million individual outage records spanning from 2014 to 2024, 300,000 NTL images spanning from 2012 to 2024, and 15,000 outage maps. GeoOutageKG is a novel, modular and reusable semantic resource that enables robust multimodal data integration. We demonstrate its use through multiresolution analysis of geospatiotemporal power outages.

Lasso Penalization for High-Dimensional Beta Regression Models: Computation, Analysis, and Inference

Beta regression is commonly employed when the outcome variable is a proportion. Since its conception, the approach has been widely used in applications spanning various scientific fields. A series of extensions have been proposed over time, several of which address variable selection and penalized estimation, e.g., with an $\ell_1$-penalty (LASSO). However, a theoretical analysis of this popular approach in the context of Beta regression with high-dimensional predictors is lacking. In this paper, we aim to close this gap. A particular challenge arises from the non-convexity of the associated negative log-likelihood, which we address by resorting to a framework for analyzing stationary points in a neighborhood of the target parameter. Leveraging this framework, we derive a non-asymptotic bound on the $\ell_1$-error of such stationary points. In addition, we propose a debiasing approach to construct confidence intervals for the regression parameters. A proximal gradient algorithm is devised for optimizing the resulting penalized negative log-likelihood function. Our theoretical analysis is corroborated via simulation studies, and a real data example concerning the prediction of county-level proportions of incarceration is presented to showcase the practical utility of our methodology.

Towards Explainable Deep Clustering for Time Series Data

Deep clustering uncovers hidden patterns and groups in complex time series data, yet its opaque decision-making limits use in safety-critical settings. This survey offers a structured overview of explainable deep clustering for time series, collecting current methods and their real-world applications. We thoroughly discuss and compare peer-reviewed and preprint papers through application domains across healthcare, finance, IoT, and climate science. Our analysis reveals that most work relies on autoencoder and attention architectures, with limited support for streaming, irregularly sampled, or privacy-preserved series, and interpretability is still primarily treated as an add-on. To push the field forward, we outline six research opportunities: (1) combining complex networks with built-in interpretability; (2) setting up clear, faithfulness-focused evaluation metrics for unsupervised explanations; (3) building explainers that adapt to live data streams; (4) crafting explanations tailored to specific domains; (5) adding human-in-the-loop methods that refine clusters and explanations together; and (6) improving our understanding of how time series clustering models work internally. By making interpretability a primary design goal rather than an afterthought, we propose the groundwork for the next generation of trustworthy deep clustering time series analytics.

Causal Graph Fuzzy LLMs: A First Introduction and Applications in Time Series Forecasting

In recent years, the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) to time series forecasting (TSF) has garnered significant attention among researchers. This study presents a new frame of LLMs named CGF-LLM using GPT-2 combined with fuzzy time series (FTS) and causal graph to predict multivariate time series, marking the first such architecture in the literature. The key objective is to convert numerical time series into interpretable forms through the parallel application of fuzzification and causal analysis, enabling both semantic understanding and structural insight as input for the pretrained GPT-2 model. The resulting textual representation offers a more interpretable view of the complex dynamics underlying the original time series. The reported results confirm the effectiveness of our proposed LLM-based time series forecasting model, as demonstrated across four different multivariate time series datasets. This initiative paves promising future directions in the domain of TSF using LLMs based on FTS.

Precision spectral estimation at sub-Hz frequencies: closed-form posteriors and Bayesian noise projection

We present a Bayesian method for estimating spectral quantities in multivariate Gaussian time series. The approach, based on periodograms and Wishart statistics, yields closed-form expressions at any given frequency for the marginal posterior distributions of the individual power spectral densities, the pairwise coherence, and the multiple coherence, as well as for the joint posterior distribution of the full cross-spectral density matrix. In the context of noise projection - where one series is modeled as a linear combination of filtered versions of the others, plus a background component - the method also provides closed-form posteriors for both the susceptibilities, i.e., the filter transfer functions, and the power spectral density of the background. Originally developed for the analysis of the data from the European Space Agency's LISA Pathfinder mission, the method is particularly well-suited to very-low-frequency data, where long observation times preclude averaging over large sets of periodograms, which would otherwise allow these to be treated as approximately normally distributed.

A Novel Modeling Framework and Data Product for Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light Image Reconstruction (1986-2024)

Artificial Night-Time Light (NTL) remote sensing is a vital proxy for quantifying the intensity and spatial distribution of human activities. Although the NPP-VIIRS sensor provides high-quality NTL observations, its temporal coverage, which begins in 2012, restricts long-term time-series studies that extend to earlier periods. Despite the progress in extending VIIRS-like NTL time-series, current methods still suffer from two significant shortcomings: the underestimation of light intensity and the structural omission. To overcome these limitations, we propose a novel reconstruction framework consisting of a two-stage process: construction and refinement. The construction stage features a Hierarchical Fusion Decoder (HFD) designed to enhance the fidelity of the initial reconstruction. The refinement stage employs a Dual Feature Refiner (DFR), which leverages high-resolution impervious surface masks to guide and enhance fine-grained structural details. Based on this framework, we developed the Extended VIIRS-like Artificial Nighttime Light (EVAL) product for China, extending the standard data record backwards by 26 years to begin in 1986. Quantitative evaluation shows that EVAL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art products, boosting the $\text{R}^2$ from 0.68 to 0.80 while lowering the RMSE from 1.27 to 0.99. Furthermore, EVAL exhibits excellent temporal consistency and maintains a high correlation with socioeconomic parameters, confirming its reliability for long-term analysis. The resulting EVAL dataset provides a valuable new resource for the research community and is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.11888/HumanNat.tpdc.302930.

Eco-Friendly AI: Unleashing Data Power for Green Federated Learning

The widespread adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) comes with a significant environmental impact, particularly in terms of energy consumption and carbon emissions. This pressing issue highlights the need for innovative solutions to mitigate AI's ecological footprint. One of the key factors influencing the energy consumption of ML model training is the size of the training dataset. ML models are often trained on vast amounts of data continuously generated by sensors and devices distributed across multiple locations. To reduce data transmission costs and enhance privacy, Federated Learning (FL) enables model training without the need to move or share raw data. While FL offers these advantages, it also introduces challenges due to the heterogeneity of data sources (related to volume and quality), computational node capabilities, and environmental impact. This paper contributes to the advancement of Green AI by proposing a data-centric approach to Green Federated Learning. Specifically, we focus on reducing FL's environmental impact by minimizing the volume of training data. Our methodology involves the analysis of the characteristics of federated datasets, the selecting of an optimal subset of data based on quality metrics, and the choice of the federated nodes with the lowest environmental impact. We develop a comprehensive methodology that examines the influence of data-centric factors, such as data quality and volume, on FL training performance and carbon emissions. Building on these insights, we introduce an interactive recommendation system that optimizes FL configurations through data reduction, minimizing environmental impact during training. Applying this methodology to time series classification has demonstrated promising results in reducing the environmental impact of FL tasks.

D3FL: Data Distribution and Detrending for Robust Federated Learning in Non-linear Time-series Data

With advancements in computing and communication technologies, the Internet of Things (IoT) has seen significant growth. IoT devices typically collect data from various sensors, such as temperature, humidity, and energy meters. Much of this data is temporal in nature. Traditionally, data from IoT devices is centralized for analysis, but this approach introduces delays and increased communication costs. Federated learning (FL) has emerged as an effective alternative, allowing for model training across distributed devices without the need to centralize data. In many applications, such as smart home energy and environmental monitoring, the data collected by IoT devices across different locations can exhibit significant variation in trends and seasonal patterns. Accurately forecasting such non-stationary, non-linear time-series data is crucial for applications like energy consumption estimation and weather forecasting. However, these data variations can severely impact prediction accuracy. The key contributions of this paper are: (1) Investigating how non-linear, non-stationary time-series data distributions, like generalized extreme value (gen-extreme) and log norm distributions, affect FL performance. (2) Analyzing how different detrending techniques for non-linear time-series data influence the forecasting model's performance in a FL setup. We generated several synthetic time-series datasets using non-linear data distributions and trained an LSTM-based forecasting model using both centralized and FL approaches. Additionally, we evaluated the impact of detrending on real-world datasets with non-linear time-series data distributions. Our experimental results show that: (1) FL performs worse than centralized approaches when dealing with non-linear data distributions. (2) The use of appropriate detrending techniques improves FL performance, reducing loss across different data distributions.