Time series analysis comprises statistical methods for analyzing a sequence of data points collected over an interval of time to identify interesting patterns and trends.
We propose a novel computational framework for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) time series using methods from stringology, the study of efficient algorithms for string processing, to systematically identify and characterize recurrent temporal patterns in neural signals. The primary aim is to introduce quantitative measures to understand neural signal dynamics, with the present findings serving as a proof-of-concept. The framework adapts order-preserving matching (OPM) and Cartesian tree matching (CTM) to detect temporal motifs that preserve relative ordering and hierarchical structure while remaining invariant to amplitude scaling. This approach provides a temporally precise representation of EEG dynamics that complements traditional spectral and global complexity analyses. To evaluate its utility, we applied the framework to multichannel EEG recordings from individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and matched controls using a publicly available dataset. Highly recurrent, group-specific motifs were extracted and quantified using both OPM and CTM. The ADHD group exhibited significantly higher motif frequencies, suggesting increased repetitiveness in neural activity. OPM analysis revealed shorter motif lengths and greater gradient instability in ADHD, reflected in larger mean and maximal inter-sample amplitude changes. CTM analysis further demonstrated reduced hierarchical complexity in ADHD, characterized by shallower tree structures and fewer hierarchical levels despite comparable motif lengths. These findings suggest that ADHD-related EEG alterations involve systematic differences in the structure, stability, and hierarchical organization of recurrent temporal patterns. The proposed stringology-based motif framework provides a complementary computational tool with potential applications for objective biomarker development in neurodevelopmental disorders.
Accurate fault detection and localization in electrical distribution systems is crucial, especially with the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), which inject greater variability and complexity into grid operations. In this study, FaultXformer is proposed, a Transformer encoder-based architecture developed for automatic fault analysis using real-time current data obtained from phasor measurement unit (PMU). The approach utilizes time-series current data to initially extract rich temporal information in stage 1, which is crucial for identifying the fault type and precisely determining its location across multiple nodes. In Stage 2, these extracted features are processed to differentiate among distinct fault types and identify the respective fault location within the distribution system. Thus, this dual-stage transformer encoder pipeline enables high-fidelity representation learning, considerably boosting the performance of the work. The model was validated on a dataset generated from the IEEE 13-node test feeder, simulated with 20 separate fault locations and several DER integration scenarios, utilizing current measurements from four strategically located PMUs. To demonstrate robust performance evaluation, stratified 10-fold cross-validation is performed. FaultXformer achieved average accuracies of 98.76% in fault type classification and 98.92% in fault location identification across cross-validation, consistently surpassing conventional deep learning baselines convolutional neural network (CNN), recurrent neural network (RNN). long short-term memory (LSTM) by 1.70%, 34.95%, and 2.04% in classification accuracy and by 10.82%, 40.89%, and 6.27% in location accuracy, respectively. These results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model with significant DER penetration.
Next-generation fusion facilities like ITER face a "data deluge," generating petabytes of multi-diagnostic signals daily that challenge manual analysis. We present a "signals-first" self-supervised framework for the automated extraction of coherent and transient modes from high-noise time-frequency data across a variety of sensors. We also develop a general-purpose method and tool for extracting coherent, quasi-coherent, and transient modes for fluctuation measurements in tokamaks by employing non-linear optimal techniques in multichannel signal processing with a fast neural network surrogate on fast magnetics, electron cyclotron emission, CO2 interferometers, and beam emission spectroscopy measurements from DIII-D. Results are tested on data from DIII-D, TJ-II, and non-fusion spectrograms. With an inference latency of 0.5 seconds, this framework enables real-time mode identification and large-scale automated database generation for advanced plasma control. Repository is in https://github.com/PlasmaControl/TokEye.
The analysis of non-stationary time-series data requires insight into its local and global patterns with physical interpretability. However, traditional smoothing algorithms, such as B-splines, Savitzky-Golay filtering, and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), lack the ability to perform parametric optimization with guaranteed continuity. In this paper, we propose Functional Continuous Decomposition (FCD), a JAX-accelerated framework that performs parametric, continuous optimization on a wide range of mathematical functions. By using Levenberg-Marquardt optimization to achieve up to $C^1$ continuous fitting, FCD transforms raw time-series data into $M$ modes that capture different temporal patterns from short-term to long-term trends. Applications of FCD include physics, medicine, financial analysis, and machine learning, where it is commonly used for the analysis of signal temporal patterns, optimized parameters, derivatives, and integrals of decomposition. Furthermore, FCD can be applied for physical analysis and feature extraction with an average SRMSE of 0.735 per segment and a speed of 0.47s on full decomposition of 1,000 points. Finally, we demonstrate that a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) enhanced with FCD features, such as optimized function values, parameters, and derivatives, achieved 16.8% faster convergence and 2.5% higher accuracy over a standard CNN.
The term 'algorithmic fairness' is used to evaluate whether AI models operate fairly in both comparative (where fairness is understood as formal equality, such as "treat like cases as like") and non-comparative (where unfairness arises from the model's inaccuracy, arbitrariness, or inscrutability) contexts. Recent advances in multimodal large language models (MLLMs) are breaking new ground in multimodal understanding, reasoning, and generation; however, we argue that inconspicuous distortions arising from complex multimodal interaction dynamics can lead to systematic bias. The purpose of this position paper is twofold: first, it is intended to acquaint AI researchers with phenomenological explainable approaches that rely on the physical entities that the machine experiences during training/inference, as opposed to the traditional cognitivist symbolic account or metaphysical approaches; second, it is to state that this phenomenological doctrine will be practically useful for tackling algorithmic fairness issues in MLLMs. We develop a surrogate physics-based model that describes transformer dynamics (i.e., semantic network structure and self-/cross-attention) to analyze the dynamics of cross-modal bias in MLLM, which are not fully captured by conventional embedding- or representation-level analyses. We support this position through multi-input diagnostic experiments: 1) perturbation-based analyses of emotion classification using Qwen2.5-Omni and Gemma 3n, and 2) dynamical analysis of Lorenz chaotic time-series prediction through the physical surrogate. Across two architecturally distinct MLLMs, we show that multimodal inputs can reinforce modality dominance rather than mitigate it, as revealed by structured error-attractor patterns under systematic label perturbation, complemented by dynamical analysis.
Electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis is crucial for diagnosing heart disease, but most self-supervised learning methods treat ECG as a generic time series, overlooking physiologic semantics and rhythm-level structure. Existing contrastive methods utilize augmentations that distort morphology, whereas generative approaches employ fixed-window segmentation, which misaligns cardiac cycles. To address these limitations, we propose RhythmBERT, a generative ECG language model that considers ECG as a language paradigm by encoding P, QRS, and T segments into symbolic tokens via autoencoder-based latent representations. These discrete tokens capture rhythm semantics, while complementary continuous embeddings retain fine-grained morphology, enabling a unified view of waveform structure and rhythm. RhythmBERT is pretrained on approximately 800,000 unlabeled ECG recordings with a masked prediction objective, allowing it to learn contextual representations in a label-efficient manner. Evaluations show that despite using only a single lead, RhythmBERT achieves comparable or superior performance to strong 12-lead baselines. This generalization extends from prevalent conditions such as atrial fibrillation to clinically challenging cases such as subtle ST-T abnormalities and myocardial infarction. Our results suggest that considering ECG as structured language offers a scalable and physiologically aligned pathway for advancing cardiac analysis.
This study investigates a data-driven machine learning approach to predict membrane fouling in critically ill patients undergoing Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy (CRRT). Using time-series data from an ICU, 16 clinically selected features were identified to train predictive models. To ensure interpretability and enable reliable counterfactual analysis, the researchers adopted a tabular data approach rather than modeling temporal dependencies directly. Given the imbalance between fouling and non-fouling cases, the ADASYN oversampling technique was applied to improve minority class representation. Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM models were tested, achieving balanced performance with 77.6% sensitivity and 96.3% specificity at a 10% rebalancing rate. Results remained robust across different forecasting horizons. Notably, the tabular approach outperformed LSTM recurrent neural networks, suggesting that explicit temporal modeling was not necessary for strong predictive performance. Feature selection further reduced the model to five key variables, improving simplicity and interpretability with minimal loss of accuracy. A Shapley value-based counterfactual analysis was applied to the best-performing model, successfully identifying minimal input changes capable of reversing fouling predictions. Overall, the findings support the viability of interpretable machine learning models for predicting membrane fouling during CRRT. The integration of prediction and counterfactual analysis offers practical clinical value, potentially guiding therapeutic adjustments to reduce fouling risk and improve patient management.
Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima. Therefore, mitigating the adverse effects of low-predictability samples is crucial for time series analysis tasks such as time series forecasting (TSF) and time series classification (TSC). While many deep learning models have achieved promising performance, few consider how to identify and penalize low-predictability samples to improve model performance from the training perspective. To fill this gap, we propose a general Amortized Predictability-aware Training Framework (APTF) for both TSF and TSC. APTF introduces two key designs that enable the model to focus on high-predictability samples while still learning appropriately from low-predictability ones: (i) a Hierarchical Predictability-aware Loss (HPL) that dynamically identifies low-predictability samples and progressively expands their loss penalty as training evolves, and (ii) an amortization model that mitigates predictability estimation errors caused by model bias, further enhancing HPL's effectiveness. The code is available at https://github.com/Meteor-Stars/APTF.
This study presents a Normal Behavior Model (NBM) developed to forecast monitoring time-series data from the ASTRI-Horn Cherenkov telescope under normal operating conditions. The analysis focused on 15 physical variables acquired by the Telescope Control Unit between September 2022 and July 2024, representing sensor measurements from the Azimuth and Elevation motors. After data cleaning, resampling, feature selection, and correlation analysis, the dataset was segmented into fixed-length intervals, in which the first I samples represented the input sequence provided to the model, while the forecast length, T, indicated the number of future time steps to be predicted. A sliding-window technique was then applied to increase the number of intervals. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) was trained to perform multivariate forecasting across all features simultaneously. Model performance was evaluated using the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and the Normalized Median Absolute Deviation (NMAD), and it was also benchmarked against a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. The MLP model demonstrated consistent results across different features and I-T configurations, and matched the performance of the LSTM while converging faster. It achieved an MSE of 0.019+/-0.003 and an NMAD of 0.032+/-0.009 on the test set under its best configuration (4 hidden layers, 720 units per layer, and I-T lengths of 300 samples each, corresponding to 5 hours at 1-minute resolution). Extending the forecast horizon up to 6.5 hours-the maximum allowed by this configuration-did not degrade performance, confirming the model's effectiveness in providing reliable hour-scale predictions. The proposed NBM provides a powerful tool for enabling early anomaly detection in online ASTRI-Horn monitoring time series, offering a basis for the future development of a prognostics and health management system that supports predictive maintenance.
Affine frequency division multiplexing (AFDM) has recently emerged as a resilient waveform candidate for high-mobility next-generation wireless systems. However, current literature mostly focuses on discrete time (DT) models, often overlooking effects and hardware non-idealities of actual continuous time (CT) signal generation. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a CT-analytical framework based on the affine Fourier series (AFS) representation, which allows us to demonstrate that strictly bandlimited pulses and subcarrier suppression strategies are essential to maintain the multicarrier structure of the signal. In addition, we derive the analytical power spectral density of AFDM and evaluate its spectral characteristics in comparison with other multicarrier schemes, considering the impact of realistic truncated pulse-shaping. Furthermore, we analyze the sensitivity of the CT model to phase noise, carrier frequency offset, and sampling jitter, providing a theoretical analysis of communication performance. Finally, we derive closed-form Cramér-Rao bounds for channel parameter estimation, showing that the chirped modulation peculiar of AFDM increases the estimation variance but enables the resolution of Doppler ambiguities. Our findings provide the necessary theoretical and practical foundations for the implementation of AFDM in realistic wireless transceivers.