What Makes a Strong Model? A Unified Spectral Analysis of Knowledge Transfer over High-dimensional Linear Regression

Teacher-Student Knowledge Transfer (KT) is ubiquitous in modern machine learning, ranging from classical model compression via Knowledge Distillation (KD) to the emergent phenomenon of Weak-to-Strong (W2S) generalization. While existing studies offer isolated insights, a unified theoretical framework explaining the efficacy of KT across these disparate regimes remains lacking. In this work, we establish a unified spectral analysis of SGD dynamics in high-dimensional linear regression, elucidating the efficiency of KT across seemingly disparate regimes. We characterize KT efficiency through two distinct mechanisms: \emph{Spectral Horizon Expansion} in KD, which enables the capture of statistically inaccessible high-frequency signals, and \emph{Spectral Denoising} in W2S, where the student acts as a filter for optimization noise. Our framework unifies these phenomena, revealing that the efficacy of transfer is governed by the interplay between implicit regularization and heterogeneous spectral learning speeds over the spectrum.

Bayesian meta-learning for modeling Alzheimer's disease progression

Predicting whether an individual with Alzheimer's disease will experience mild or severe disease progression is essential for personalized treatment. Typically, practitioners seek to predict the distribution of a discrete disease score, conditional on an individual's current MRI volume and their historical disease trajectory. Classical statistical regression models and single-task neural networks are not well-suited for this purpose because fitting separate models is infeasible (since each individual typically has few observations), while ignoring individual-level correlation leads to poor generalization. Meta-learning, in contrast, provides a natural avenue to dynamically predict distributions without retraining and model nonlinear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Motivated by this, we propose a Bayesian meta-learner that is trained on multiple individuals but tailors the predictive disease score distribution to each individual's historical data. Our model predicts on unseen individuals without retraining, scales linearly with the number of historical observations, and is guaranteed to be less overconfident when predicting long-term disease scores compared to its deterministic counterpart. On real-world data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database, our model achieves performance competitive with both single-task models and deterministic meta-learners, while substantially improving performance when predicting long-term disease progression.

Simultaneous Model-Based Evolution of Constants and Expression Structure in GP-GOMEA for Symbolic Regression

Genetic programming (GP) approaches are among the state-of-the-art for symbolic regression, the task of constructing symbolic expressions that fit well with data. To find highly accurate symbolic expressions, both the expression structure and any contained real-valued constants, are important. GP-GOMEA, a modern model-based evolutionary algorithm, is one of the leading algorithms for finding accurate, yet compact expressions. Yet, GP-GOMEA does not perform dedicated constant optimization, but rather uses ephemeral random constants. Hence, the accuracy of GP-GOMEA may well still be improved upon by the incorporation of a constant optimization mechanism. Existing research into mixed discrete-continuous optimization with EAs has shown that a simultaneous and well-integrated approach to optimizing both discrete and continuous parts, leads to the best results on a variety of problems, especially when there are interactions between these parts. In this paper, we therefore propose a novel approach where constants in expressions are optimized at the same time as the expression structure by merging the real-valued variant of GOMEA with GP-GOMEA. The proposed approach is compared to other forms of handling constants in GP-GOMEA, and in the context of other commonly used techniques such as linear scaling, restarts, and constant tuning after GP optimization. Our results indicate that our novel approach generally performs best and confirms the importance of simultaneous constant optimization during evolution.

FlowSDR: Sufficient Dimension Reduction via Conditional Normalizing Flows

Sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) seeks a low-dimensional linear projection of predictors that preserves the conditional distribution of the response. Existing methods target this conditional distribution indirectly, via inverse moments, local forward regression, or neural ensemble regression. We propose FlowSDR, a likelihood-based framework that jointly learns the projection and the conditional density by maximizing a conditional log-likelihood, with the density parameterized by monotone rational-quadratic spline flows. The estimator is Fisher consistent under the SDR model, and its sample objective admits a population interpretation in terms of mutual information. As a complementary model within the same likelihood framework, we introduce the neural Gaussian SDR, a heteroscedastic conditional Gaussian model whose mean and variance are parameterized by shared neural-network functions of the projected predictors. In simulations spanning Gaussian errors, heavy-tailed distributions, two-component mixtures, and settings with tail behavior not captured by mean-variance structure, FlowSDR recovers the central subspace more accurately than existing SDR methods and the neural Gaussian SDR baseline. We further validate these advantages on a face-age prediction task using the UTKFace dataset.

Hybrid Imbalanced Regression Through Unified Data-Level and Algorithm-Level Balancing

Imbalanced learning is a critical challenge in machine learning, where underrepresented target values can bias models and degrade prediction performance on rare but important cases. Although extensively studied in classification, imbalanced regression remains relatively underexplored. Existing methods mainly focus on either data-level balancing, which may introduce noise and overfitting, or algorithm-level balancing, which often struggles with highly complex target distributions. To address these limitations, we propose a unified hybrid framework that integrates both data- and algorithm-level balancing strategies into a regressor-agnostic pipeline. The proposed framework consists of five stages: (1) adaptive bin partitioning to dynamically segment the target space based on local linear coherence; (2) target-conditioned representation learning using a Conditional Variational Autoencoder; (3) multistage data-level balancing through feature-space clustering and oversampling of minority clusters; (4) algorithm-level balancing using a novel Latent-Density Weighted Loss (LDWL) to emphasize rare samples in latent and target spaces; and (5) attention-based gated fusion for final regression. Experimental results on benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework consistently improves predictive performance compared to standalone regressors and existing imbalanced regression approaches.

Hybrid Probabilistic Forecasting of Under-Five Malaria Admissions in Ghana: A Gaussian Process Regression with Holt-Winters Smoothing

Accurate malaria forecasting remains a major challenge in sub-Saharan Africa, where strong seasonality, reporting uncertainty, and non-stationary transmission dynamics reduce the reliability of conventional models. In Ghana, district-level malaria surveillance requires forecasting frameworks that are probabilistically rigorous and robust under limited data. This study proposes a hybrid framework integrating Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with Holt-Winters exponential smoothing for modelling monthly under-five malaria admissions. GPR captures non-linear behaviour and predictive uncertainty, while Holt-Winters stabilises long-horizon forecasts and preserves seasonal structure. Using ten years of district-level data (2014-2023), performance was evaluated via rolling-origin expanding-window validation. The hybrid model achieved $R^2 = 0.9906$ versus $0.8213$ for Holt-Winters alone, with $94.2\%$ of residuals within $\pm 2σ$ bounds. Forecasts for 2024-2028 project average monthly admissions from approximately 8{,}000 to 12{,}200 cases. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed pronounced ecological heterogeneity: northern high-burden districts exhibited stable relative patterns despite large absolute fluctuations. The framework provides a scalable probabilistic approach for malaria early warning and operational planning in endemic settings, supporting Ghana's national malaria control strategy.

Convergence of Steepest Descent and Adam under Non-Uniform Smoothness

Recent work has analyzed the convergence of first-order methods under non-uniform smoothness assumptions that better model the loss landscape in machine learning tasks. We generalize this assumption to objectives whose curvature is an affine function of the objective value. This property is satisfied by a broad class of problems, including logistic regression, generalized linear models with a logistic link function, softmax policy gradient in reinforcement learning, and a class of neural networks. Under this assumption and gradient domination conditions, we establish a general convergence rate for the steepest descent method, and deterministic, diagonal variants of RMSProp and Adam. Our results imply that for logistic regression on separable data and the softmax policy gradient objective, sign GD converges linearly and is provably faster than GD. Furthermore, we show that for a class of two-layer neural networks on separable data, RMSProp and Adam can converge at a linear rate with a constant step-size and momentum parameter. Finally, we present a lower bound demonstrating that, under our assumption, RMSProp and Adam are provably faster than AdaGrad, AMSGrad, gradient descent, and heavy-ball momentum.

Annotation-Informed Block-Sparse Bayesian Modeling for cis-Expression Prediction

Genotype-based cis-expression prediction depends on accurately modeling local regulatory architecture. We present block-sparse Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (bsBSLMM), an extension of Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (BSLMM) that incorporates linkage disequilibrium (LD)-block spike-and-slab sparsity and a transcription start site (TSS)-informed SNP inclusion prior. Across 23,098 genes from GEUVADIS European-ancestry lymphoblastoid cell lines, bsBSLMM retained more predictable genes than BSLMM, LASSO, BLUP, TIGAR elastic net, and TIGAR Dirichlet-process regression under matched evaluation criteria. Compared with BSLMM, bsBSLMM improved held-out prediction performance for most shared genes, with gains driven primarily by LD-block sparsity and further enhanced by the TSS-informed prior. Variants selected by bsBSLMM showed stronger enrichment in GM12878 DNase and H3K27ac regulatory regions than variants selected by BSLMM. In transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) analysis, bsBSLMM recovered established inflammatory bowel disease signals, including IL23R, and identified additional genome-wide significant genes not detected by BSLMM. Independent validation in the Louisiana Osteoporosis Study reproduced the increased prediction yield across ancestries and recovered biologically relevant bone mineral density pathways in downstream TWAS and gene set enrichment analyses. These results demonstrate that incorporating LD-block structure and biologically informed SNP priors improves cis-expression prediction and enhances downstream TWAS discovery.

Joint Model and Data Sparsification via the Marginal Likelihood

Sparse recovery in linear systems underpins applications from signal processing to high-dimensional regression. Sparse Bayesian Learning, grounded in the principle of automatic relevance determination (ARD), offers a practical Bayesian mechanism for feature sparsity via marginal likelihood optimization. Yet, its reliance on a homoscedastic noise model renders it sensitive to data contaminations such as outliers or misspecified noise, harming model fit and predictions. Instead, we propose jointly learning individual feature and sample relevancies, enabling simultaneous model and data sparsification via a single Bayesian objective. This symmetric pruning of model and data offers a natural extension that preserves conjugacy, admits closed-form updates for standard optimization procedures, and aligns with perspectives from robust regression and influence functions. Empirical results across diverse regression tasks affirm that a joint ARD approach consistently yields both sparse and robust prediction models.

Privately Estimating Monotone Statistics in Polynomial Time

We study efficient differentially private algorithms for estimating monotone statistics, i.e., statistics that are monotone under the addition of new observations. The starting point for our investigation is subsample-and-aggregate: a classical paradigm that partitions the dataset into blocks, estimates the statistic on each block, and then privately aggregates the estimates.While practical and generically applicable, this approach is quite data-hungry. We improve upon this framework for the class of monotone statistics -- compared to subsample-and-aggregate, our algorithms save a factor of $t$ in sample complexity and pay a factor of $e^t$ in running time, where $t>0$ is a tunable parameter. We complement our results with a query-complexity lower bound, showing that our algorithms are essentially optimal for this task. As an application, we obtain improved results for private eigenvalue estimation, private loss estimation, and privately estimating a single parameter of a high-dimensional model, e.g., in linear regression.