A decodability criterion predicts when hidden-state selection beats majority voting in large language models

Combining the answers a large language model (LLM) samples for a question into one decision is a test-time information fusion problem, usually solved by majority voting. Voting is unreliable on difficult questions, where the sampled answers share correlated errors, so the wrong answer can win and drawing more samples makes the decision worse. Selecting a candidate by reading a correctness signal from the model's hidden states is a promising alternative, but its accuracy varies across models and tasks, and no measure indicates when it can be trusted. In this paper, we propose CASE (Correctness-Axis SElection), a dynamic selection combiner that trains a linear gate on the answer-token hidden state and selects the highest-scoring candidate. Its main contribution is decodability, a leakage-free measure of how well the gate ranks a question's correct candidates above its incorrect ones, which predicts whether hidden-state selection will outperform voting. A conventional probe appears accurate only because of question-identity leakage, which vanishes under question-grouped evaluation. On held-out data, decodability predicts the accuracy gain of selection over voting with a Pearson correlation r=0.75 and a decision threshold near AUC=0.60. Across general and medical LLMs, CASE improves over voting by up to 19 points on medium-difficulty questions and 16.8 points on hard questions. Decodability depends on the aligned knowledge a model must recall, not on its scale, and its prediction transfers to an unseen scientific domain within 3.8 points. It thus provides a practical criterion, measurable in advance for a given model and task, for choosing between learned selection and majority voting.

Gaussian Meta-Space Augmentation for Stacking Ensembles in Multimodal IPMN Risk Stratification

Pancreatic cancer is among the most lethal malignancies; risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) offers a crucial opportunity for early intervention but typically requires invasive tissue biopsy. Dominant vision-based approaches, including radiomics and deep learning, provide promising but initially separate discrimination opportunities. Similarly, multisequence MRI (T1W/T2W) and anatomically decomposed (head, body and tail) analysis of the pancreas provide additional and potentially complementary signals. Effective fusion of this information is crucial in ordinal IPMN dysplasia risk prediction and can be accomplished via a meticulously regularized and calibrated ensemble stacking combiner. We present cUPMI, a class-conditional Gaussian augmentation of a combiner's log-probability meta-features, and test it on various prediction paradigms. In our multi-center analysis, we find cUPMI adds limited value to properly regularized L2-logistic binary classification stacks, but consistently regularizes higher-capacity tree combiners in the binary and radiomics-only setting (RF +0.015 and XGBoost +0.024 binary AUC, positive in all seeds). Its cleanest ordinal benefit appears for XGBoost on an 8-stream radiomics task (3-class no < low < high, +0.022 QWK in all seeds). Separately, fold-locked fusion of radiomics and 2.5D CNN streams yields the strongest overall model, an RF stack reaching QWK 0.595 (95% CI [0.54, 0.64]) and binary AUC 0.839, surpassing radiomics, 2.5D ResNet, and 3D DenseNet-121 baselines.

Cyst-X: AI-Powered Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction from Multicenter MRI in Centralized and Federated Learning

Pancreatic cancer is projected to become the second-deadliest malignancy in Western countries by 2030, highlighting the urgent need for better early detection. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs), key precursors to pancreatic cancer, are challenging to assess with current guidelines, often leading to unnecessary surgeries or missed malignancies. We present Cyst-X, an AI framework that predicts IPMN malignancy using multicenter MRI data, leveraging MRI's superior soft tissue contrast over CT. Trained on 723 T1- and 738 T2-weighted scans from 764 patients across seven institutions, our models (AUC=0.82) significantly outperform both Kyoto guidelines (AUC=0.75) and expert radiologists. The AI-derived imaging features align with known clinical markers and offer biologically meaningful insights. We also demonstrate strong performance in a federated learning setting, enabling collaborative training without sharing patient data. To promote privacy-preserving AI development and improve IPMN risk stratification, the Cyst-X dataset is released as the first large-scale, multi-center pancreatic cysts MRI dataset.

Predicting Risk of Pulmonary Fibrosis Formation in PASC Patients

While the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided, its long-term effects persist through Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC), commonly known as Long COVID. There remains substantial uncertainty regarding both its duration and optimal management strategies. PASC manifests as a diverse array of persistent or newly emerging symptoms--ranging from fatigue, dyspnea, and neurologic impairments (e.g., brain fog), to cardiovascular, pulmonary, and musculoskeletal abnormalities--that extend beyond the acute infection phase. This heterogeneous presentation poses substantial challenges for clinical assessment, diagnosis, and treatment planning. In this paper, we focus on imaging findings that may suggest fibrotic damage in the lungs, a critical manifestation characterized by scarring of lung tissue, which can potentially affect long-term respiratory function in patients with PASC. This study introduces a novel multi-center chest CT analysis framework that combines deep learning and radiomics for fibrosis prediction. Our approach leverages convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and interpretable feature extraction, achieving 82.2% accuracy and 85.5% AUC in classification tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Grad-CAM visualization and radiomics-based feature analysis in providing clinically relevant insights for PASC-related lung fibrosis prediction. Our findings highlight the potential of deep learning-driven computational methods for early detection and risk assessment of PASC-related lung fibrosis--presented for the first time in the literature.

IPMN Risk Assessment under Federated Learning Paradigm

Accurate classification of Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms (IPMN) is essential for identifying high-risk cases that require timely intervention. In this study, we develop a federated learning framework for multi-center IPMN classification utilizing a comprehensive pancreas MRI dataset. This dataset includes 653 T1-weighted and 656 T2-weighted MRI images, accompanied by corresponding IPMN risk scores from 7 leading medical institutions, making it the largest and most diverse dataset for IPMN classification to date. We assess the performance of DenseNet-121 in both centralized and federated settings for training on distributed data. Our results demonstrate that the federated learning approach achieves high classification accuracy comparable to centralized learning while ensuring data privacy across institutions. This work marks a significant advancement in collaborative IPMN classification, facilitating secure and high-accuracy model training across multiple centers.

Detection of Peri-Pancreatic Edema using Deep Learning and Radiomics Techniques

Identifying peri-pancreatic edema is a pivotal indicator for identifying disease progression and prognosis, emphasizing the critical need for accurate detection and assessment in pancreatitis diagnosis and management. This study \textit{introduces a novel CT dataset sourced from 255 patients with pancreatic diseases, featuring annotated pancreas segmentation masks and corresponding diagnostic labels for peri-pancreatic edema condition}. With the novel dataset, we first evaluate the efficacy of the \textit{LinTransUNet} model, a linear Transformer based segmentation algorithm, to segment the pancreas accurately from CT imaging data. Then, we use segmented pancreas regions with two distinctive machine learning classifiers to identify existence of peri-pancreatic edema: deep learning-based models and a radiomics-based eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The LinTransUNet achieved promising results, with a dice coefficient of 80.85\%, and mIoU of 68.73\%. Among the nine benchmarked classification models for peri-pancreatic edema detection, \textit{Swin-Tiny} transformer model demonstrated the highest recall of $98.85 \pm 0.42$ and precision of $98.38\pm 0.17$. Comparatively, the radiomics-based XGBoost model achieved an accuracy of $79.61\pm4.04$ and recall of $91.05\pm3.28$, showcasing its potential as a supplementary diagnostic tool given its rapid processing speed and reduced training time. Our code is available \url{https://github.com/NUBagciLab/Peri-Pancreatic-Edema-Detection}.

Wildfire Detection Via Transfer Learning: A Survey

This paper surveys different publicly available neural network models used for detecting wildfires using regular visible-range cameras which are placed on hilltops or forest lookout towers. The neural network models are pre-trained on ImageNet-1K and fine-tuned on a custom wildfire dataset. The performance of these models is evaluated on a diverse set of wildfire images, and the survey provides useful information for those interested in using transfer learning for wildfire detection. Swin Transformer-tiny has the highest AUC value but ConvNext-tiny detects all the wildfire events and has the lowest false alarm rate in our dataset.