Can convolutional ResNets approximately preserve input distances? A frequency analysis perspective

ResNets constrained to be bi-Lipschitz, that is, approximately distance preserving, have been a crucial component of recently proposed techniques for deterministic uncertainty quantification in neural models. We show that theoretical justifications for recent regularisation schemes trying to enforce such a constraint suffer from a crucial flaw -- the theoretical link between the regularisation scheme used and bi-Lipschitzness is only valid under conditions which do not hold in practice, rendering existing theory of limited use, despite the strong empirical performance of these models. We provide a theoretical explanation for the effectiveness of these regularisation schemes using a frequency analysis perspective, showing that under mild conditions these schemes will enforce a lower Lipschitz bound on the low-frequency projection of images. We then provide empirical evidence supporting our theoretical claims, and perform further experiments which demonstrate that our broader conclusions appear to hold when some of the mathematical assumptions of our proof are relaxed, corresponding to the setup used in prior work. In addition, we present a simple constructive algorithm to search for counter examples to the distance preservation condition, and discuss possible implications of our theory for future model design.

Physically-Consistent Generative Adversarial Networks for Coastal Flood Visualization

As climate change increases the intensity of natural disasters, society needs better tools for adaptation. Floods, for example, are the most frequent natural disaster, and better tools for flood risk communication could increase the support for flood-resilient infrastructure development. Our work aims to enable more visual communication of large-scale climate impacts via visualizing the output of coastal flood models as satellite imagery. We propose the first deep learning pipeline to ensure physical-consistency in synthetic visual satellite imagery. We advanced a state-of-the-art GAN called pix2pixHD, such that it produces imagery that is physically-consistent with the output of an expert-validated storm surge model (NOAA SLOSH). By evaluating the imagery relative to physics-based flood maps, we find that our proposed framework outperforms baseline models in both physical-consistency and photorealism. We envision our work to be the first step towards a global visualization of how climate change shapes our landscape. Continuing on this path, we show that the proposed pipeline generalizes to visualize arctic sea ice melt. We also publish a dataset of over 25k labelled image-pairs to study image-to-image translation in Earth observation.

Outcome-Driven Reinforcement Learning via Variational Inference

While reinforcement learning algorithms provide automated acquisition of optimal policies, practical application of such methods requires a number of design decisions, such as manually designing reward functions that not only define the task, but also provide sufficient shaping to accomplish it. In this paper, we discuss a new perspective on reinforcement learning, recasting it as the problem of inferring actions that achieve desired outcomes, rather than a problem of maximizing rewards. To solve the resulting outcome-directed inference problem, we establish a novel variational inference formulation that allows us to derive a well-shaped reward function which can be learned directly from environment interactions. From the corresponding variational objective, we also derive a new probabilistic Bellman backup operator reminiscent of the standard Bellman backup operator and use it to develop an off-policy algorithm to solve goal-directed tasks. We empirically demonstrate that this method eliminates the need to design reward functions and leads to effective goal-directed behaviors.

Generating Interpretable Counterfactual Explanations By Implicit Minimisation of Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainties

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a practical tool for demonstrating why machine learning classifiers make particular decisions. For CEs to be useful, it is important that they are easy for users to interpret. Existing methods for generating interpretable CEs rely on auxiliary generative models, which may not be suitable for complex datasets, and incur engineering overhead. We introduce a simple and fast method for generating interpretable CEs in a white-box setting without an auxiliary model, by using the predictive uncertainty of the classifier. Our experiments show that our proposed algorithm generates more interpretable CEs, according to IM1 scores, than existing methods. Additionally, our approach allows us to estimate the uncertainty of a CE, which may be important in safety-critical applications, such as those in the medical domain.

Robustness to Pruning Predicts Generalization in Deep Neural Networks

Existing generalization measures that aim to capture a model's simplicity based on parameter counts or norms fail to explain generalization in overparameterized deep neural networks. In this paper, we introduce a new, theoretically motivated measure of a network's simplicity which we call prunability: the smallest \emph{fraction} of the network's parameters that can be kept while pruning without adversely affecting its training loss. We show that this measure is highly predictive of a model's generalization performance across a large set of convolutional networks trained on CIFAR-10, does not grow with network size unlike existing pruning-based measures, and exhibits high correlation with test set loss even in a particularly challenging double descent setting. Lastly, we show that the success of prunability cannot be explained by its relation to known complexity measures based on models' margin, flatness of minima and optimization speed, finding that our new measure is similar to -- but more predictive than -- existing flatness-based measures, and that its predictions exhibit low mutual information with those of other baselines.

Active Testing: Sample-Efficient Model Evaluation

We introduce active testing: a new framework for sample-efficient model evaluation. While approaches like active learning reduce the number of labels needed for model training, existing literature largely ignores the cost of labeling test data, typically unrealistically assuming large test sets for model evaluation. This creates a disconnect to real applications where test labels are important and just as expensive, e.g. for optimizing hyperparameters. Active testing addresses this by carefully selecting the test points to label, ensuring model evaluation is sample-efficient. To this end, we derive theoretically-grounded and intuitive acquisition strategies that are specifically tailored to the goals of active testing, noting these are distinct to those of active learning. Actively selecting labels introduces a bias; we show how to remove that bias while reducing the variance of the estimator at the same time. Active testing is easy to implement, effective, and can be applied to any supervised machine learning method. We demonstrate this on models including WideResNet and Gaussian processes on datasets including CIFAR-100.

Quantifying Ignorance in Individual-Level Causal-Effect Estimates under Hidden Confounding

We study the problem of learning conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from high-dimensional, observational data with unobserved confounders. Unobserved confounders introduce ignorance -- a level of unidentifiability -- about an individual's response to treatment by inducing bias in CATE estimates. We present a new parametric interval estimator suited for high-dimensional data, that estimates a range of possible CATE values when given a predefined bound on the level of hidden confounding. Further, previous interval estimators do not account for ignorance about the CATE stemming from samples that may be underrepresented in the original study, or samples that violate the overlap assumption. Our novel interval estimator also incorporates model uncertainty so that practitioners can be made aware of out-of-distribution data. We prove that our estimator converges to tight bounds on CATE when there may be unobserved confounding, and assess it using semi-synthetic, high-dimensional datasets.

PsiPhi-Learning: Reinforcement Learning with Demonstrations using Successor Features and Inverse Temporal Difference Learning

We study reinforcement learning (RL) with no-reward demonstrations, a setting in which an RL agent has access to additional data from the interaction of other agents with the same environment. However, it has no access to the rewards or goals of these agents, and their objectives and levels of expertise may vary widely. These assumptions are common in multi-agent settings, such as autonomous driving. To effectively use this data, we turn to the framework of successor features. This allows us to disentangle shared features and dynamics of the environment from agent-specific rewards and policies. We propose a multi-task inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) algorithm, called \emph{inverse temporal difference learning} (ITD), that learns shared state features, alongside per-agent successor features and preference vectors, purely from demonstrations without reward labels. We further show how to seamlessly integrate ITD with learning from online environment interactions, arriving at a novel algorithm for reinforcement learning with demonstrations, called $\Psi \Phi$-learning (pronounced `Sci-Fi'). We provide empirical evidence for the effectiveness of $\Psi \Phi$-learning as a method for improving RL, IRL, imitation, and few-shot transfer, and derive worst-case bounds for its performance in zero-shot transfer to new tasks.

Deterministic Neural Networks with Appropriate Inductive Biases Capture Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty

We show that a single softmax neural net with minimal changes can beat the uncertainty predictions of Deep Ensembles and other more complex single-forward-pass uncertainty approaches. Softmax neural nets cannot capture epistemic uncertainty reliably because for OoD points they extrapolate arbitrarily and suffer from feature collapse. This results in arbitrary softmax entropies for OoD points which can have high entropy, low, or anything in between. We study why, and show that with the right inductive biases, softmax neural nets trained with maximum likelihood reliably capture epistemic uncertainty through the feature-space density. This density is obtained using Gaussian Discriminant Analysis, but it cannot disentangle uncertainties. We show that it is necessary to combine this density with the softmax entropy to disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty -- crucial e.g. for active learning. We examine the quality of epistemic uncertainty on active learning and OoD detection, where we obtain SOTA ~0.98 AUROC on CIFAR-10 vs SVHN.