Detecting Out-of-Distribution Samples via Conditional Distribution Entropy with Optimal Transport

When deploying a trained machine learning model in the real world, it is inevitable to receive inputs from out-of-distribution (OOD) sources. For instance, in continual learning settings, it is common to encounter OOD samples due to the non-stationarity of a domain. More generally, when we have access to a set of test inputs, the existing rich line of OOD detection solutions, especially the recent promise of distance-based methods, falls short in effectively utilizing the distribution information from training samples and test inputs. In this paper, we argue that empirical probability distributions that incorporate geometric information from both training samples and test inputs can be highly beneficial for OOD detection in the presence of test inputs available. To address this, we propose to model OOD detection as a discrete optimal transport problem. Within the framework of optimal transport, we propose a novel score function known as the \emph{conditional distribution entropy} to quantify the uncertainty of a test input being an OOD sample. Our proposal inherits the merits of certain distance-based methods while eliminating the reliance on distribution assumptions, a-prior knowledge, and specific training mechanisms. Extensive experiments conducted on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our method outperforms its competitors in OOD detection.

Learn to Explore: on Bootstrapping Interactive Data Exploration with Meta-learning

Interactive data exploration (IDE) is an effective way of comprehending big data, whose volume and complexity are beyond human abilities. The main goal of IDE is to discover user interest regions from a database through multi-rounds of user labelling. Existing IDEs adopt active-learning framework, where users iteratively discriminate or label the interestingness of selected tuples. The process of data exploration can be viewed as the process of training a classifier, which determines whether a database tuple is interesting to a user. An efficient exploration thus takes very few iterations of user labelling to reach the data region of interest. In this work, we consider the data exploration as the process of few-shot learning, where the classifier is learned with only a few training examples, or exploration iterations. To this end, we propose a learning-to-explore framework, based on meta-learning, which learns how to learn a classifier with automatically generated meta-tasks, so that the exploration process can be much shortened. Extensive experiments on real datasets show that our proposal outperforms existing explore-by-example solutions in terms of accuracy and efficiency.

STUaNet: Understanding uncertainty in spatiotemporal collective human mobility

The high dynamics and heterogeneous interactions in the complicated urban systems have raised the issue of uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal human mobility, to support critical decision-makings in risk-aware web applications such as urban event prediction where fluctuations are of significant interests. Given the fact that uncertainty quantifies the potential variations around prediction results, traditional learning schemes always lack uncertainty labels, and conventional uncertainty quantification approaches mostly rely upon statistical estimations with Bayesian Neural Networks or ensemble methods. However, they have never involved any spatiotemporal evolution of uncertainties under various contexts, and also have kept suffering from the poor efficiency of statistical uncertainty estimation while training models with multiple times. To provide high-quality uncertainty quantification for spatiotemporal forecasting, we propose an uncertainty learning mechanism to simultaneously estimate internal data quality and quantify external uncertainty regarding various contextual interactions. To address the issue of lacking labels of uncertainty, we propose a hierarchical data turbulence scheme where we can actively inject controllable uncertainty for guidance, and hence provide insights to both uncertainty quantification and weak supervised learning. Finally, we re-calibrate and boost the prediction performance by devising a gated-based bridge to adaptively leverage the learned uncertainty into predictions. Extensive experiments on three real-world spatiotemporal mobility sets have corroborated the superiority of our proposed model in terms of both forecasting and uncertainty quantification.

Inductive Link Prediction for Nodes Having Only Attribute Information

Predicting the link between two nodes is a fundamental problem for graph data analytics. In attributed graphs, both the structure and attribute information can be utilized for link prediction. Most existing studies focus on transductive link prediction where both nodes are already in the graph. However, many real-world applications require inductive prediction for new nodes having only attribute information. It is more challenging since the new nodes do not have structure information and cannot be seen during the model training. To solve this problem, we propose a model called DEAL, which consists of three components: two node embedding encoders and one alignment mechanism. The two encoders aim to output the attribute-oriented node embedding and the structure-oriented node embedding, and the alignment mechanism aligns the two types of embeddings to build the connections between the attributes and links. Our model DEAL is versatile in the sense that it works for both inductive and transductive link prediction. Extensive experiments on several benchmark datasets show that our proposed model significantly outperforms existing inductive link prediction methods, and also outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on transductive link prediction.

RiskOracle: A Minute-level Citywide Traffic Accident Forecasting Framework

Real-time traffic accident forecasting is increasingly important for public safety and urban management (e.g., real-time safe route planning and emergency response deployment). Previous works on accident forecasting are often performed on hour levels, utilizing existed neural networks with static region-wise correlations taken into account. However, it is still challenging when the granularity of forecasting step improves as the highly dynamic nature of road network and inherent rareness of accident records in one training sample, which leads to biased results and zero-inflated issue. In this work, we propose a novel framework RiskOracle, to improve the prediction granularity to minute levels. Specifically, we first transform the zero-risk values in labels to fit the training network. Then, we propose the Differential Time-varying Graph neural network (DTGN) to capture the immediate changes of traffic status and dynamic inter-subregion correlations. Furthermore, we adopt multi-task and region selection schemes to highlight citywide most-likely accident subregions, bridging the gap between biased risk values and sporadic accident distribution. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of our RiskOracle framework.