Watermark Forensics for Generative Models: An Information-Theoretic Perspective

A watermark in a generative model's output is usually asked only whether a text is machine-made. The same mark can do more: attribute it to the user who produced it, extract a hidden payload, or localize the part that survives editing. These form a forensic ladder, and we ask what each rung costs in the sample length $n$. One object organizes the answers. Let $S$ be the secret the mark carries (a user's identity or payload), and let the information profile $ν(t)=I(S;X_t\mid X_{<t})$ record how much the $t$-th token reveals about $S$ given the earlier ones. Its total mass pays for attribution and extraction; how that mass is spread pays for localization; and detection alone is paid for not by information but by presence, the distance from the marked to the unmarked distribution. The literature's two quality models, a mark subtle on every token and one that stamps a few tokens loudly, are two incomparable ways of capping this profile. Our main theorem settles the ladder's entropy column. For statistically distortion-free schemes, attributing a text to one of $N$ users costs $Θ(\log N/h)$ tokens over every stationary-ergodic source of entropy rate $h$, sharp to a $(1+o(1))$ factor: to our knowledge the first tight entropy-rate law for multi-user attribution (via exact alignment). The natural collision-counting analysis overcharges without bound; only a decoder thresholding each candidate by its own realized surprisal attains the rate while almost never implicating an innocent user. A matching converse makes the law two-sided, and extraction of an $\ell$-bit payload costs $Θ(\ell/h)$. Two gaps are real, not modeling artifacts: a $Θ(\log N)$-token window in which a text is provably machine-made yet unattributable, and a footprint-resolution uncertainty principle. Experiments on GPT-2, Pythia-410M, and Qwen2.5 recover the predicted constants.

TRACE: A Two-Channel Robust Attribution Watermark via Complementary Embeddings for LLM-Agent Trajectories

LLM agents reach users through resellers, who may rebrand a developer's agent or substitute a cheaper model. When provenance is disputed, attribution rests on the trajectory log (the record of tool calls, observations, and executed actions, not the model's reasoning), which the reseller stores and processes to meter usage. A watermark must therefore survive an adversary with full read/write access to the very evidence it is detected from; existing agent watermarks do not, as their attribution is read straight off that log. We present TRACE, to our knowledge the first agent watermark that is distortion-free in its action choices, self-synchronizing under deletion, and unconditionally invariant under rewriting. Deletion desynchronizes a position-derived key and rewriting alters content, so a deletion-robust key must come from content and a rewrite-robust key from position, and no single key serves both. A trajectory, however, has room for two watermarks. TRACE superposes a selection channel that sets which action is chosen, keyed on local content with a distortion-free sampler, so the agent's distribution is provably unchanged and detection resynchronizes after deletions, and a tally channel that sets how many records each decision group holds, keyed on the log's skeleton alone, which no rewriting can touch. We prove this behavioral watermark's signal is bought with decision entropy, each decision paying at least half its entropy and deterministic decisions nothing, and that erasing both channels forces the reseller to corrupt the trajectories it resells. On ToolBench and ALFWorld, TRACE matches the unwatermarked agent's success rate while its selection channel reaches detection scores near z = 100 on long-horizon trajectories, stays detectable under 70% step deletion, and keeps a tally channel exactly unchanged under LLM rewriting of any strength.

LAVA: Layered Audio-Visual Anti-tampering Watermarking for Robust Deepfake Detection and Localization

Proactive watermarking offers a promising approach for deepfake tamper detection and localization in short-form videos. However, existing methods often decouple audio and visual evidence and assume that watermark signals remain reliable under real-world degradations, making tamper localization vulnerable to multimodal misalignment and compression distortions. Moreover, existing semi-fragile visual watermarking methods often degrade significantly under codec compression because their embedding bands overlap with compression-sensitive frequency regions. To address these limitations, we propose Layered Audio-Visual Anti-tampering Watermarking (LAVA), a calibration-aware audio-visual watermark fusion framework for deepfake tamper detection and localization. LAVA leverages cross-modal watermark fusion and calibration-aware alignment to preserve consistent and reliable tamper evidence under compression and audio-visual asynchrony, enabling robust tamper localization. Extensive experiments demonstrate that LAVA achieves near-perfect detection performance (AP = 0.999), remains robust to compression and multimodal misalignment, and significantly improves tamper localization reliability over existing audio-visual fusion baselines.

SHIFT: Stochastic Hidden-Trajectory Deflection for Removing Diffusion-based Watermark

Diffusion-based watermarking methods embed verifiable marks by manipulating the initial noise or the reverse diffusion trajectory. However, these methods share a critical assumption: verification can succeed only if the diffusion trajectory can be faithfully reconstructed. This reliance on trajectory recovery constitutes a fundamental and exploitable vulnerability. We propose $\underline{\mathbf{S}}$tochastic $\underline{\mathbf{Hi}}$dden-Trajectory De$\underline{\mathbf{f}}$lec$\underline{\mathbf{t}}$ion ($\mathbf{SHIFT}$), a training-free attack that exploits this common weakness across diverse watermarking paradigms. SHIFT leverages stochastic diffusion resampling to deflect the generative trajectory in latent space, making the reconstructed image statistically decoupled from the original watermark-embedded trajectory while preserving strong visual quality and semantic consistency. Extensive experiments on nine representative watermarking methods spanning noise-space, frequency-domain, and optimization-based paradigms show that SHIFT achieves 95%--100% attack success rates with nearly no loss in semantic quality, without requiring any watermark-specific knowledge or model retraining.

SLICE: Semantic Latent Injection via Compartmentalized Embedding for Image Watermarking

Watermarking the initial noise of diffusion models has emerged as a promising approach for image provenance, but content-independent noise patterns can be forged via inversion and regeneration attacks. Recent semantic-aware watermarking methods improve robustness by conditioning verification on image semantics. However, their reliance on a single global semantic binding makes them vulnerable to localized but globally coherent semantic edits. To address this limitation and provide a trustworthy semantic-aware watermark, we propose $\underline{\textbf{S}}$emantic $\underline{\textbf{L}}$atent $\underline{\textbf{I}}$njection via $\underline{\textbf{C}}$ompartmentalized $\underline{\textbf{E}}$mbedding ($\textbf{SLICE}$). Our framework decouples image semantics into four semantic factors (subject, environment, action, and detail) and precisely anchors them to distinct regions in the initial Gaussian noise. This fine-grained semantic binding enables advanced watermark verification where semantic tampering is detectable and localizable. We theoretically justify why SLICE enables robust and reliable tamper localization and provides statistical guarantees on false-accept rates. Experimental results demonstrate that SLICE significantly outperforms existing baselines against advanced semantic-guided regeneration attacks, substantially reducing attack success while preserving image quality and semantic fidelity. Overall, SLICE offers a practical, training-free provenance solution that is both fine-grained in diagnosis and robust to realistic adversarial manipulations.

Breaking Semantic-Aware Watermarks via LLM-Guided Coherence-Preserving Semantic Injection

Generative images have proliferated on Web platforms in social media and online copyright distribution scenarios, and semantic watermarking has increasingly been integrated into diffusion models to support reliable provenance tracking and forgery prevention for web content. Traditional noise-layer-based watermarking, however, remains vulnerable to inversion attacks that can recover embedded signals. To mitigate this, recent content-aware semantic watermarking schemes bind watermark signals to high-level image semantics, constraining local edits that would otherwise disrupt global coherence. Yet, large language models (LLMs) possess structured reasoning capabilities that enable targeted exploration of semantic spaces, allowing locally fine-grained but globally coherent semantic alterations that invalidate such bindings. To expose this overlooked vulnerability, we introduce a Coherence-Preserving Semantic Injection (CSI) attack that leverages LLM-guided semantic manipulation under embedding-space similarity constraints. This alignment enforces visual-semantic consistency while selectively perturbing watermark-relevant semantics, ultimately inducing detector misclassification. Extensive empirical results show that CSI consistently outperforms prevailing attack baselines against content-aware semantic watermarking, revealing a fundamental security weakness of current semantic watermark designs when confronted with LLM-driven semantic perturbations.