JAPE: Joint Anomaly Prediction and Intrinsic Explanation in Multivariate Time Series

Multivariate time-series anomaly prediction aims to identify whether and when anomalies will occur over a future horizon from historical observations. Existing methods primarily characterize anomalies as deviations in future numerical values, which may overlook subtle dependency changes induced by weak anomaly precursors and provide no native variable-level explanation together with the alert. To bridge these gaps, we propose JAPE, a Joint Anomaly Prediction and Explanation framework that lifts anomaly prediction from numerical-deviation modeling to dependency-structure modeling. JAPE is the first anomaly prediction framework to explicitly model evolving dependency structures for both point-wise alerting and native variable-level explanation. Specifically, JAPE (i) proposes a Decoupled Spatio-Temporal Representation (DSTR) backbone that decouples temporal and spatial modeling and captures lag-aware dependencies via learnable lag aggregation, thereby perceiving structural precursors before numerical deviations emerge; (ii) designs a dual-view alerting mechanism that fuses numerical forecasts with evolving dependency graphs for point-wise anomaly prediction, capturing structural evidence even under subtle numerical deviations; and (iii) presents Native Predictive Explanation (NPE), which directly reuses the predicted dependency graphs to rank variables by structural deviations without additional models or training. Extensive experiments on five real-world benchmarks across three prediction horizons demonstrate that JAPE improves average F1 and AUC-PR by 19.7% and 41.3%, respectively, while improving explainability with 26.6% gain in MRR.

Enhanced Influence-aware Group Recommendation for Online Media Propagation

Group recommendation over social media streams has attracted significant attention due to its wide applications in domains such as e-commerce, entertainment, and online news broadcasting. By leveraging social connections and group behaviours, group recommendation (GR) aims to provide more accurate and engaging content to a set of users rather than individuals. Recently, influence-aware GR has emerged as a promising direction, as it considers the impact of social influence on group decision-making. In earlier work, we proposed Influence-aware Group Recommendation (IGR) to solve this task. However, this task remains challenging due to three key factors: the large and ever-growing scale of social graphs, the inherently dynamic nature of influence propagation within user groups, and the high computational overhead of real-time group-item matching. To tackle these issues, we propose an Enhanced Influence-aware Group Recommendation (EIGR) framework. First, we introduce a Graph Extraction-based Sampling (GES) strategy to minimise redundancy across multiple temporal social graphs and effectively capture the evolving dynamics of both groups and items. Second, we design a novel DYnamic Independent Cascade (DYIC) model to predict how influence propagates over time across social items and user groups. Finally, we develop a two-level hash-based User Group Index (UG-Index) to efficiently organise user groups and enable real-time recommendation generation. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework, EIGR, consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both effectiveness and efficiency.