Predict the Next Word: <Humans exhibit uncertainty in this task and language models _____>

Language models (LMs) are statistical models trained to assign probability to human-generated text. As such, it is reasonable to question whether they approximate linguistic variability exhibited by humans well. This form of statistical assessment is difficult to perform at the passage level, for it requires acceptability judgements (i.e., human evaluation) or a robust automated proxy (which is non-trivial). At the word level, however, given some context, samples from an LM can be assessed via exact matching against a prerecorded dataset of alternative single-word continuations of the available context. We exploit this fact and evaluate the LM's ability to reproduce variability that humans (in particular, a population of English speakers) exhibit in the 'next word prediction' task. This can be seen as assessing a form of calibration, which, in the context of text classification, Baan et al. (2022) termed calibration to human uncertainty. We assess GPT2, BLOOM and ChatGPT and find that they exhibit fairly low calibration to human uncertainty. We also verify the failure of expected calibration error (ECE) to reflect this, and as such, advise the community against relying on it in this setting.

Interpreting Predictive Probabilities: Model Confidence or Human Label Variation?

With the rise of increasingly powerful and user-facing NLP systems, there is growing interest in assessing whether they have a good representation of uncertainty by evaluating the quality of their predictive distribution over outcomes. We identify two main perspectives that drive starkly different evaluation protocols. The first treats predictive probability as an indication of model confidence; the second as an indication of human label variation. We discuss their merits and limitations, and take the position that both are crucial for trustworthy and fair NLP systems, but that exploiting a single predictive distribution is limiting. We recommend tools and highlight exciting directions towards models with disentangled representations of uncertainty about predictions and uncertainty about human labels.

Uncertainty in Natural Language Generation: From Theory to Applications

Recent advances of powerful Language Models have allowed Natural Language Generation (NLG) to emerge as an important technology that can not only perform traditional tasks like summarisation or translation, but also serve as a natural language interface to a variety of applications. As such, it is crucial that NLG systems are trustworthy and reliable, for example by indicating when they are likely to be wrong; and supporting multiple views, backgrounds and writing styles -- reflecting diverse human sub-populations. In this paper, we argue that a principled treatment of uncertainty can assist in creating systems and evaluation protocols better aligned with these goals. We first present the fundamental theory, frameworks and vocabulary required to represent uncertainty. We then characterise the main sources of uncertainty in NLG from a linguistic perspective, and propose a two-dimensional taxonomy that is more informative and faithful than the popular aleatoric/epistemic dichotomy. Finally, we move from theory to applications and highlight exciting research directions that exploit uncertainty to power decoding, controllable generation, self-assessment, selective answering, active learning and more.

What Comes Next? Evaluating Uncertainty in Neural Text Generators Against Human Production Variability

In Natural Language Generation (NLG) tasks, for any input, multiple communicative goals are plausible, and any goal can be put into words, or produced, in multiple ways. We characterise the extent to which human production varies lexically, syntactically, and semantically across four NLG tasks, connecting human production variability to aleatoric or data uncertainty. We then inspect the space of output strings shaped by a generation system's predicted probability distribution and decoding algorithm to probe its uncertainty. For each test input, we measure the generator's calibration to human production variability. Following this instance-level approach, we analyse NLG models and decoding strategies, demonstrating that probing a generator with multiple samples and, when possible, multiple references, provides the level of detail necessary to gain understanding of a model's representation of uncertainty.

VISION DIFFMASK: Faithful Interpretation of Vision Transformers with Differentiable Patch Masking

The lack of interpretability of the Vision Transformer may hinder its use in critical real-world applications despite its effectiveness. To overcome this issue, we propose a post-hoc interpretability method called VISION DIFFMASK, which uses the activations of the model's hidden layers to predict the relevant parts of the input that contribute to its final predictions. Our approach uses a gating mechanism to identify the minimal subset of the original input that preserves the predicted distribution over classes. We demonstrate the faithfulness of our method, by introducing a faithfulness task, and comparing it to other state-of-the-art attribution methods on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-1K, achieving compelling results. To aid reproducibility and further extension of our work, we open source our implementation: https://github.com/AngelosNal/Vision-DiffMask

Stop Measuring Calibration When Humans Disagree

Calibration is a popular framework to evaluate whether a classifier knows when it does not know - i.e., its predictive probabilities are a good indication of how likely a prediction is to be correct. Correctness is commonly estimated against the human majority class. Recently, calibration to human majority has been measured on tasks where humans inherently disagree about which class applies. We show that measuring calibration to human majority given inherent disagreements is theoretically problematic, demonstrate this empirically on the ChaosNLI dataset, and derive several instance-level measures of calibration that capture key statistical properties of human judgements - class frequency, ranking and entropy.

Statistical Model Criticism of Variational Auto-Encoders

We propose a framework for the statistical evaluation of variational auto-encoders (VAEs) and test two instances of this framework in the context of modelling images of handwritten digits and a corpus of English text. Our take on evaluation is based on the idea of statistical model criticism, popular in Bayesian data analysis, whereby a statistical model is evaluated in terms of its ability to reproduce statistics of an unknown data generating process from which we can obtain samples. A VAE learns not one, but two joint distributions over a shared sample space, each exploiting a choice of factorisation that makes sampling tractable in one of two directions (latent-to-data, data-to-latent). We evaluate samples from these distributions, assessing their (marginal) fit to the observed data and our choice of prior, and we also evaluate samples through a pipeline that connects the two distributions starting from a data sample, assessing whether together they exploit and reveal latent factors of variation that are useful to a practitioner. We show that this methodology offers possibilities for model selection qualitatively beyond intrinsic evaluation metrics and at a finer granularity than commonly used statistics can offer.

Highly Parallel Autoregressive Entity Linking with Discriminative Correction

Generative approaches have been recently shown to be effective for both Entity Disambiguation and Entity Linking (i.e., joint mention detection and disambiguation). However, the previously proposed autoregressive formulation for EL suffers from i) high computational cost due to a complex (deep) decoder, ii) non-parallelizable decoding that scales with the source sequence length, and iii) the need for training on a large amount of data. In this work, we propose a very efficient approach that parallelizes autoregressive linking across all potential mentions and relies on a shallow and efficient decoder. Moreover, we augment the generative objective with an extra discriminative component, i.e., a correction term which lets us directly optimize the generator's ranking. When taken together, these techniques tackle all the above issues: our model is >70 times faster and more accurate than the previous generative method, outperforming state-of-the-art approaches on the standard English dataset AIDA-CoNLL. Source code available at https://github.com/nicola-decao/efficient-autoregressive-EL

Sampling-Based Minimum Bayes Risk Decoding for Neural Machine Translation

In neural machine translation (NMT), we search for the mode of the model distribution to form predictions. The mode as well as other high probability translations found by beam search have been shown to often be inadequate in a number of ways. This prevents practitioners from improving translation quality through better search, as these idiosyncratic translations end up being selected by the decoding algorithm, a problem known as the beam search curse. Recently, a sampling-based approximation to minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding has been proposed as an alternative decision rule for NMT that would likely not suffer from the same problems. We analyse this approximation and establish that it has no equivalent to the beam search curse, i.e. better search always leads to better translations. We also design different approximations aimed at decoupling the cost of exploration from the cost of robust estimation of expected utility. This allows for exploration of much larger hypothesis spaces, which we show to be beneficial. We also show that it can be beneficial to make use of strategies like beam search and nucleus sampling to construct hypothesis spaces efficiently. We show on three language pairs (English into and from German, Romanian, and Nepali) that MBR can improve upon beam search with moderate computation.

Sparse Communication via Mixed Distributions

Neural networks and other machine learning models compute continuous representations, while humans communicate mostly through discrete symbols. Reconciling these two forms of communication is desirable for generating human-readable interpretations or learning discrete latent variable models, while maintaining end-to-end differentiability. Some existing approaches (such as the Gumbel-Softmax transformation) build continuous relaxations that are discrete approximations in the zero-temperature limit, while others (such as sparsemax transformations and the Hard Concrete distribution) produce discrete/continuous hybrids. In this paper, we build rigorous theoretical foundations for these hybrids, which we call "mixed random variables." Our starting point is a new "direct sum" base measure defined on the face lattice of the probability simplex. From this measure, we introduce new entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence functions that subsume the discrete and differential cases and have interpretations in terms of code optimality. Our framework suggests two strategies for representing and sampling mixed random variables, an extrinsic ("sample-and-project") and an intrinsic one (based on face stratification). We experiment with both approaches on an emergent communication benchmark and on modeling MNIST and Fashion-MNIST data with variational auto-encoders with mixed latent variables.