Kernel-based off-policy estimation without overlap: Instance optimality beyond semiparametric efficiency

We study optimal procedures for estimating a linear functional based on observational data. In many problems of this kind, a widely used assumption is strict overlap, i.e., uniform boundedness of the importance ratio, which measures how well the observational data covers the directions of interest. When it is violated, the classical semi-parametric efficiency bound can easily become infinite, so that the instance-optimal risk depends on the function class used to model the regression function. For any convex and symmetric function class $\mathcal{F}$, we derive a non-asymptotic local minimax bound on the mean-squared error in estimating a broad class of linear functionals. This lower bound refines the classical semi-parametric one, and makes connections to moduli of continuity in functional estimation. When $\mathcal{F}$ is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove that this lower bound can be achieved up to a constant factor by analyzing a computationally simple regression estimator. We apply our general results to various families of examples, thereby uncovering a spectrum of rates that interpolate between the classical theories of semi-parametric efficiency (with $\sqrt{n}$-consistency) and the slower minimax rates associated with non-parametric function estimation.

Off-policy estimation of linear functionals: Non-asymptotic theory for semi-parametric efficiency

The problem of estimating a linear functional based on observational data is canonical in both the causal inference and bandit literatures. We analyze a broad class of two-stage procedures that first estimate the treatment effect function, and then use this quantity to estimate the linear functional. We prove non-asymptotic upper bounds on the mean-squared error of such procedures: these bounds reveal that in order to obtain non-asymptotically optimal procedures, the error in estimating the treatment effect should be minimized in a certain weighted $L^2$-norm. We analyze a two-stage procedure based on constrained regression in this weighted norm, and establish its instance-dependent optimality in finite samples via matching non-asymptotic local minimax lower bounds. These results show that the optimal non-asymptotic risk, in addition to depending on the asymptotically efficient variance, depends on the weighted norm distance between the true outcome function and its approximation by the richest function class supported by the sample size.

Optimal variance-reduced stochastic approximation in Banach spaces

We study the problem of estimating the fixed point of a contractive operator defined on a separable Banach space. Focusing on a stochastic query model that provides noisy evaluations of the operator, we analyze a variance-reduced stochastic approximation scheme, and establish non-asymptotic bounds for both the operator defect and the estimation error, measured in an arbitrary semi-norm. In contrast to worst-case guarantees, our bounds are instance-dependent, and achieve the local asymptotic minimax risk non-asymptotically. For linear operators, contractivity can be relaxed to multi-step contractivity, so that the theory can be applied to problems like average reward policy evaluation problem in reinforcement learning. We illustrate the theory via applications to stochastic shortest path problems, two-player zero-sum Markov games, as well as policy evaluation and $Q$-learning for tabular Markov decision processes.

Optimal and instance-dependent guarantees for Markovian linear stochastic approximation

We study stochastic approximation procedures for approximately solving a $d$-dimensional linear fixed point equation based on observing a trajectory of length $n$ from an ergodic Markov chain. We first exhibit a non-asymptotic bound of the order $t_{\mathrm{mix}} \tfrac{d}{n}$ on the squared error of the last iterate of a standard scheme, where $t_{\mathrm{mix}}$ is a mixing time. We then prove a non-asymptotic instance-dependent bound on a suitably averaged sequence of iterates, with a leading term that matches the local asymptotic minimax limit, including sharp dependence on the parameters $(d, t_{\mathrm{mix}})$ in the higher order terms. We complement these upper bounds with a non-asymptotic minimax lower bound that establishes the instance-optimality of the averaged SA estimator. We derive corollaries of these results for policy evaluation with Markov noise -- covering the TD($\lambda$) family of algorithms for all $\lambda \in [0, 1)$ -- and linear autoregressive models. Our instance-dependent characterizations open the door to the design of fine-grained model selection procedures for hyperparameter tuning (e.g., choosing the value of $\lambda$ when running the TD($\lambda$) algorithm).

Optimal oracle inequalities for solving projected fixed-point equations

Linear fixed point equations in Hilbert spaces arise in a variety of settings, including reinforcement learning, and computational methods for solving differential and integral equations. We study methods that use a collection of random observations to compute approximate solutions by searching over a known low-dimensional subspace of the Hilbert space. First, we prove an instance-dependent upper bound on the mean-squared error for a linear stochastic approximation scheme that exploits Polyak--Ruppert averaging. This bound consists of two terms: an approximation error term with an instance-dependent approximation factor, and a statistical error term that captures the instance-specific complexity of the noise when projected onto the low-dimensional subspace. Using information theoretic methods, we also establish lower bounds showing that both of these terms cannot be improved, again in an instance-dependent sense. A concrete consequence of our characterization is that the optimal approximation factor in this problem can be much larger than a universal constant. We show how our results precisely characterize the error of a class of temporal difference learning methods for the policy evaluation problem with linear function approximation, establishing their optimality.

ROOT-SGD: Sharp Nonasymptotics and Asymptotic Efficiency in a Single Algorithm

The theory and practice of stochastic optimization has focused on stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in recent years, retaining the basic first-order stochastic nature of SGD while aiming to improve it via mechanisms such as averaging, momentum, and variance reduction. Improvement can be measured along various dimensions, however, and it has proved difficult to achieve improvements both in terms of nonasymptotic measures of convergence rate and asymptotic measures of distributional tightness. In this work, we consider first-order stochastic optimization from a general statistical point of view, motivating a specific form of recursive averaging of past stochastic gradients. The resulting algorithm, which we refer to as \emph{Recursive One-Over-T SGD} (ROOT-SGD), matches the state-of-the-art convergence rate among online variance-reduced stochastic approximation methods. Moreover, under slightly stronger distributional assumptions, the rescaled last-iterate of ROOT-SGD converges to a zero-mean Gaussian distribution that achieves near-optimal covariance.

On the Sample Complexity of Reinforcement Learning with Policy Space Generalization

We study the optimal sample complexity in large-scale Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems with policy space generalization, i.e. the agent has a prior knowledge that the optimal policy lies in a known policy space. Existing results show that without a generalization model, the sample complexity of an RL algorithm will inevitably depend on the cardinalities of state space and action space, which are intractably large in many practical problems. To avoid such undesirable dependence on the state and action space sizes, this paper proposes a new notion of eluder dimension for the policy space, which characterizes the intrinsic complexity of policy learning in an arbitrary Markov Decision Process (MDP). Using a simulator oracle, we prove a near-optimal sample complexity upper bound that only depends linearly on the eluder dimension. We further prove a similar regret bound in deterministic systems without the simulator.

On Linear Stochastic Approximation: Fine-grained Polyak-Ruppert and Non-Asymptotic Concentration

We undertake a precise study of the asymptotic and non-asymptotic properties of stochastic approximation procedures with Polyak-Ruppert averaging for solving a linear system $\bar{A} \theta = \bar{b}$. When the matrix $\bar{A}$ is Hurwitz, we prove a central limit theorem (CLT) for the averaged iterates with fixed step size and number of iterations going to infinity. The CLT characterizes the exact asymptotic covariance matrix, which is the sum of the classical Polyak-Ruppert covariance and a correction term that scales with the step size. Under assumptions on the tail of the noise distribution, we prove a non-asymptotic concentration inequality whose main term matches the covariance in CLT in any direction, up to universal constants. When the matrix $\bar{A}$ is not Hurwitz but only has non-negative real parts in its eigenvalues, we prove that the averaged LSA procedure actually achieves an $O(1/T)$ rate in mean-squared error. Our results provide a more refined understanding of linear stochastic approximation in both the asymptotic and non-asymptotic settings. We also show various applications of the main results, including the study of momentum-based stochastic gradient methods as well as temporal difference algorithms in reinforcement learning.

Sampling for Bayesian Mixture Models: MCMC with Polynomial-Time Mixing

We study the problem of sampling from the power posterior distribution in Bayesian Gaussian mixture models, a robust version of the classical posterior. This power posterior is known to be non-log-concave and multi-modal, which leads to exponential mixing times for some standard MCMC algorithms. We introduce and study the Reflected Metropolis-Hastings Random Walk (RMRW) algorithm for sampling. For symmetric two-component Gaussian mixtures, we prove that its mixing time is bounded as $d^{1.5}(d + \Vert \theta_{0} \Vert^2)^{4.5}$ as long as the sample size $n$ is of the order $d (d + \Vert \theta_{0} \Vert^2)$. Notably, this result requires no conditions on the separation of the two means. En route to proving this bound, we establish some new results of possible independent interest that allow for combining Poincar\'{e} inequalities for conditional and marginal densities.

An Efficient Sampling Algorithm for Non-smooth Composite Potentials

We consider the problem of sampling from a density of the form $p(x) \propto \exp(-f(x)- g(x))$, where $f: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a smooth and strongly convex function and $g: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a convex and Lipschitz function. We propose a new algorithm based on the Metropolis-Hastings framework, and prove that it mixes to within TV distance $\varepsilon$ of the target density in at most $O(d \log (d/\varepsilon))$ iterations. This guarantee extends previous results on sampling from distributions with smooth log densities ($g = 0$) to the more general composite non-smooth case, with the same mixing time up to a multiple of the condition number. Our method is based on a novel proximal-based proposal distribution that can be efficiently computed for a large class of non-smooth functions $g$.