Michael Pokorny
Abstract:Large language models often reason at length before answering, increasing cost and latency. Prompts and trained settings can shorten this reasoning, but a shorter trace may only show that the model stopped sooner. Here, we evaluate paired runs of the same question at matched reasoning horizons across 198 GPQA Diamond and 500 MMLU-Pro questions. We test a numeric/concision prompt that announces a token limit for Qwen3-14B and the trained effort settings of gpt-oss-20b and -120b. The Qwen prompt shortens reasoning traces by 12-17%, while accuracy changes at matched token limits are small and mixed. A concise/early-answer instruction raises MMLU-Pro accuracy by 3.8 percentage points at 512 tokens, including +2.7 points when both runs are unfinished. Its gain at 2,048 tokens is uncertain. For gpt-oss, candidate-logit answers from completed low- and medium-effort reasoning are 14.5-26.3 points more accurate than matched-horizon high-effort answers. Most of the 512-token advantage comes from lower effort finishing earlier, while differences among unfinished runs are smaller and mixed. Wrong early answers often concentrate probability on the chosen option, so earlier stopping does not uniformly improve probability quality. In these tests, a tight deadline can favor lower effort or a concise instruction, whereas allowing high effort to finish can recover higher final accuracy. Evaluations should report correct completion before a deadline, the answer obtained when a run is stopped, differences among unfinished runs, and probability assigned to the correct answer separately.
Abstract:Large language models often show users a final response and a short reasoning summary while the full reasoning trace stays hidden. We introduce an observability ladder that holds each completed run fixed and varies only what a reader inspects to judge whether the answer is correct: the response, a self-summary the model writes from the trace, the trace itself, and internal signals, each with and without the prompt. Across three benchmarks and five open-weight Qwen3 and gpt-oss models, we train matched linear correctness predictors on each access level. Without the prompt, summaries carry most of the trace's ranking signal (mean AUROC 0.774 versus 0.813) and add +0.156 over the response alone. With the prompt visible, the summary's gain collapses to +0.019, while the trace still adds +0.041. Even at equal length, the trace's last words predict correctness as well as summaries, or slightly better, and carry denser and more discriminative uncertainty and self-correction cues. On MMLU-Pro questions with both correct and incorrect runs, linear summary readers are near chance and trace readers retain only modest signal, both with and without the prompt (prompt-withheld AUROC 0.503-0.545 versus 0.544-0.590). With the prompt withheld, a GPT-5-mini reader recovers substantially more signal from both summaries and traces on gpt-oss-20b, and even then the trace keeps a small +0.034 advantage. Much of the linear readers' trace signal is associated with length. In the common case where users already hold the prompt, summaries are less helpful than the full trace for monitoring correctness. Monitorability is thus a joint property of the display and the reader, so any monitorability claim, including for faithfulness, should specify both.
Abstract:Perturbation techniques that turn unsuccessful jailbreak prompts into successful ones are continuously evolving, constituting a major security threat to LLM safety. In this paper, we investigate the internal representations of such string-level perturbed jailbreak inputs in the small weight models of the Qwen-2.5-1.5B/-3B/-7B-Instruct and Llama-3.2-1B/-3B/-3.1-8B-Instruct families. We select two representation spaces: the last-layer-last-token embedding space and the top-50 next-token probability space. The former space separates prompts based on their spelling and format, while the latter space is effectively one-dimensional but appears more complex to cluster. Within our refusal-dominated answer set we find no behavioral hyperplane in either space. Only the next token "Sure" in the 1.5B Qwen model, and both tokens "," and "ĊĊ" in the 1$ Llama model, display a significant association with a compliant-labeled answer.
Abstract:Author rebuttals are the main post-submission window in peer review, but their effect on reviewer scores remains hard to measure because score updates mix rebuttal content with initial score position, paper-level consensus, reviewer confidence, and discussion dynamics. We study ICLR 2024-2025 using 73,000 reviewer trajectories with externally archived pre- and post-rebuttal scores, and use LLMs only as measurement instruments. Gemini Flash 3.0 predicts implied pre-rebuttal scores from score-stripped review text. The resulting text-score offset predicts later movement, with score-increase rates rising from 8.3% when text reads below the assigned score to 31.9% when it reads above. Claude Opus 4.6 induces, and outcome-blinded Gemini Flash 3.0 validates, a 44-feature taxonomy of resolved reviewer-author exchanges, where 23 features replicate across model and held-out year under Bonferroni correction. In the rebuttal-engaged benchmark (n=6,705), initial-review structure already predicts much score movement (AUC=0.747, minimal AUC=0.696), while adding the resolved exchange raises AUC to 0.804. Rebuttals can move scores, but measurable movement is bounded by initial-review structure, and robust exchange signals are mostly rebuttal failure modes.
Abstract:Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to guide research methodology, yet their default methodological tendencies under minimal prompting remain unclear. Here, we prompt GPT-5.1, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek-V3.2 with an LLM-extracted research question from each of 1,000 recent arXiv computer-science papers and compare the resulting methodology suggestions against a paper-derived experimental inventory. Since we provide only the research question, the differences we measure reflect initial suggestions and not how optimal those suggestions are. We extract structured method features from both sources, map them into a shared taxonomy, and quantify divergence across multiple taxonomy dimensions including model provider, dataset task type, and evaluation metric type. The strongest imbalance appears in provider choice, with Jensen-Shannon divergence about 3-5x larger than any other taxonomy dimension. Other/Academic single-occurrence models are underrepresented by 23-24 percentage points, while reused academic/community models are slightly overrepresented (4-6pp). LLMs also suggest a much narrower range of methods overall: the effective number of model entities contracts from 1,232 to 59-96, and inter-LLM rank correlations (0.55-0.68) generally exceed LLM-to-paper correlations (0.33-0.56), so the distortions are largely shared across models. Popularity baselines, BM25 retrieval calibration, and paper-level similarity tests confirm that the outputs are query-specific responses, but filtered through a narrower set of options. Researchers who rely on LLM suggestions without cross-checking therefore risk narrowing their methodological search space toward a more concentrated default.
Abstract:Reconstructing the direction of incoming neutrinos in the IceCube Neutrino Observatory is an important problem in astrophysics. The public IceCube--Neutrinos in Deep Ice Kaggle competition provided 140 million simulated events to benchmark reconstruction techniques. To address this challenge from a novel perspective we introduce neutrino fingerprints compact $72 \times 72 \times 3$ images in which each pixel represents a single detector, with pulse timing and charge statistics encoded as color channels. This representation transforms sparse, irregular pulse data into dense images suitable for convolutional processing. Our ResNet18 model achieves a mean angular error of $1.10$ rad, indicating that convolutional networks trained on fingerprints rival more complex architectures while offering an effective, interpretable baseline for IceCube event reconstruction.
Abstract:Providing timely and individualised feedback on handwritten student work is highly beneficial for learning but difficult to achieve at scale. This challenge has become more pressing as generative AI undermines the reliability of take-home assessments, shifting emphasis toward supervised, in-class evaluation. We present a scalable, end-to-end workflow for LLM-assisted grading of short, pen-and-paper assessments. The workflow spans (1) constructing solution keys, (2) developing detailed rubric-style grading keys used to guide the LLM, and (3) a grading procedure that combines automated scanning and anonymisation, multi-pass LLM scoring, automated consistency checks, and mandatory human verification. We deploy the system in two undergraduate mathematics courses using six low-stakes in-class tests. Empirically, LLM assistance reduces grading time by approximately 23% while achieving agreement comparable to, and in several cases tighter than, fully manual grading. Occasional model errors occur but are effectively contained by the hybrid design. Overall, our results show that carefully embedded human-in-the-loop LLM grading can substantially reduce workload while maintaining fairness and accuracy.
Abstract:Purpose: Higher education institutions face increasing pressure to audit course designs for generative AI (GenAI) integration. This paper presents an end-to-end method for using large language models (LLMs) to scan course information sheets at scale, identify where assessments may be vulnerable to student use of GenAI tools, validate system performance through iterative refinement, and operationalise results through direct stakeholder communication and effort. Method: We developed a four-phase pipeline: (0) manual pilot sampling, (1) iterative prompt engineering with multi-model comparison, (2) full production scan of 4,684 Bachelor and Master course information sheets (Academic Year 2024-2025) from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) with automated report generation and email distribution to teaching teams (91.4% address-matched) using a three-tier risk taxonomy (Clear risk, Potential risk, Low risk), and (3) longitudinal re-scan of 4,675 sheets after the next catalogue release. Results: Five iterations of prompt refinement achieved 87% agreement with expert labels. GPT-4o was selected for production based on superior handling of ambiguous cases involving internships and practical components. The Year 1 scan classified 60.3% of courses as Clear risk, 15.2% as Potential risk, and 24.5% as Low risk. Year 2 comparison revealed substantial shifts in risk distributions, with improvements most pronounced in practice-oriented programmes. Implications: The method enables institutions to rapidly transform heterogeneous catalogue data into structured and actionable intelligence. The approach is transferable to other audit domains (sustainability, accessibility, pedagogical alignment) and provides a template for responsible LLM deployment in higher education governance.
Abstract:In reinforcement learning, we typically aim to optimize the expected value of the sum of rewards an agent collects over a trajectory. However, if the process generating these rewards is non-ergodic, the expected value, i.e., the average over infinitely many trajectories with a given policy, is uninformative for the average over a single, but infinitely long trajectory. Thus, if we care about how the individual agent performs during deployment, the expected value is not a good optimization objective. In this paper, we discuss the impact of non-ergodic reward processes on reinforcement learning agents through an instructive example, relate the notion of ergodic reward processes to more widely used notions of ergodic Markov chains, and present existing solutions that optimize long-term performance of individual trajectories under non-ergodic reward dynamics.
Abstract:Curvature notions on graphs provide a theoretical description of graph topology, highlighting bottlenecks and denser connected regions. Artifacts of the message passing paradigm in Graph Neural Networks, such as oversmoothing and oversquashing, have been attributed to these regions. However, it remains unclear how the topology of a graph interacts with the learned preferences of GNNs. Through Massive Activations, which correspond to extreme edge activation values in Graph Transformers, we probe this correspondence. Our findings on synthetic graphs and molecular benchmarks reveal that MAs do not preferentially concentrate on curvature extremes, despite their theoretical link to information flow. On the Long Range Graph Benchmark, we identify a systemic \textit{curvature shift}: global attention mechanisms exacerbate topological bottlenecks, drastically increasing the prevalence of negative curvature. Our work reframes curvature as a diagnostic probe for understanding when and why graph learning fails.