Michael Pokorny
Abstract:Large language models often reason at length before answering, increasing cost and latency. Prompts and trained settings can shorten this reasoning, but a shorter trace may only show that the model stopped sooner. Here, we evaluate paired runs of the same question at matched reasoning horizons across 198 GPQA Diamond and 500 MMLU-Pro questions. We test a numeric/concision prompt that announces a token limit for Qwen3-14B and the trained effort settings of gpt-oss-20b and -120b. The Qwen prompt shortens reasoning traces by 12-17%, while accuracy changes at matched token limits are small and mixed. A concise/early-answer instruction raises MMLU-Pro accuracy by 3.8 percentage points at 512 tokens, including +2.7 points when both runs are unfinished. Its gain at 2,048 tokens is uncertain. For gpt-oss, candidate-logit answers from completed low- and medium-effort reasoning are 14.5-26.3 points more accurate than matched-horizon high-effort answers. Most of the 512-token advantage comes from lower effort finishing earlier, while differences among unfinished runs are smaller and mixed. Wrong early answers often concentrate probability on the chosen option, so earlier stopping does not uniformly improve probability quality. In these tests, a tight deadline can favor lower effort or a concise instruction, whereas allowing high effort to finish can recover higher final accuracy. Evaluations should report correct completion before a deadline, the answer obtained when a run is stopped, differences among unfinished runs, and probability assigned to the correct answer separately.
Abstract:Large language models often show users a final response and a short reasoning summary while the full reasoning trace stays hidden. We introduce an observability ladder that holds each completed run fixed and varies only what a reader inspects to judge whether the answer is correct: the response, a self-summary the model writes from the trace, the trace itself, and internal signals, each with and without the prompt. Across three benchmarks and five open-weight Qwen3 and gpt-oss models, we train matched linear correctness predictors on each access level. Without the prompt, summaries carry most of the trace's ranking signal (mean AUROC 0.774 versus 0.813) and add +0.156 over the response alone. With the prompt visible, the summary's gain collapses to +0.019, while the trace still adds +0.041. Even at equal length, the trace's last words predict correctness as well as summaries, or slightly better, and carry denser and more discriminative uncertainty and self-correction cues. On MMLU-Pro questions with both correct and incorrect runs, linear summary readers are near chance and trace readers retain only modest signal, both with and without the prompt (prompt-withheld AUROC 0.503-0.545 versus 0.544-0.590). With the prompt withheld, a GPT-5-mini reader recovers substantially more signal from both summaries and traces on gpt-oss-20b, and even then the trace keeps a small +0.034 advantage. Much of the linear readers' trace signal is associated with length. In the common case where users already hold the prompt, summaries are less helpful than the full trace for monitoring correctness. Monitorability is thus a joint property of the display and the reader, so any monitorability claim, including for faithfulness, should specify both.
Abstract:Perturbation techniques that turn unsuccessful jailbreak prompts into successful ones are continuously evolving, constituting a major security threat to LLM safety. In this paper, we investigate the internal representations of such string-level perturbed jailbreak inputs in the small weight models of the Qwen-2.5-1.5B/-3B/-7B-Instruct and Llama-3.2-1B/-3B/-3.1-8B-Instruct families. We select two representation spaces: the last-layer-last-token embedding space and the top-50 next-token probability space. The former space separates prompts based on their spelling and format, while the latter space is effectively one-dimensional but appears more complex to cluster. Within our refusal-dominated answer set we find no behavioral hyperplane in either space. Only the next token "Sure" in the 1.5B Qwen model, and both tokens "," and "ĊĊ" in the 1$ Llama model, display a significant association with a compliant-labeled answer.
Abstract:Author rebuttals are the main post-submission window in peer review, but their effect on reviewer scores remains hard to measure because score updates mix rebuttal content with initial score position, paper-level consensus, reviewer confidence, and discussion dynamics. We study ICLR 2024-2025 using 73,000 reviewer trajectories with externally archived pre- and post-rebuttal scores, and use LLMs only as measurement instruments. Gemini Flash 3.0 predicts implied pre-rebuttal scores from score-stripped review text. The resulting text-score offset predicts later movement, with score-increase rates rising from 8.3% when text reads below the assigned score to 31.9% when it reads above. Claude Opus 4.6 induces, and outcome-blinded Gemini Flash 3.0 validates, a 44-feature taxonomy of resolved reviewer-author exchanges, where 23 features replicate across model and held-out year under Bonferroni correction. In the rebuttal-engaged benchmark (n=6,705), initial-review structure already predicts much score movement (AUC=0.747, minimal AUC=0.696), while adding the resolved exchange raises AUC to 0.804. Rebuttals can move scores, but measurable movement is bounded by initial-review structure, and robust exchange signals are mostly rebuttal failure modes.
Abstract:Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used to guide research methodology, yet their default methodological tendencies under minimal prompting remain unclear. Here, we prompt GPT-5.1, Gemini 3 Pro, and DeepSeek-V3.2 with an LLM-extracted research question from each of 1,000 recent arXiv computer-science papers and compare the resulting methodology suggestions against a paper-derived experimental inventory. Since we provide only the research question, the differences we measure reflect initial suggestions and not how optimal those suggestions are. We extract structured method features from both sources, map them into a shared taxonomy, and quantify divergence across multiple taxonomy dimensions including model provider, dataset task type, and evaluation metric type. The strongest imbalance appears in provider choice, with Jensen-Shannon divergence about 3-5x larger than any other taxonomy dimension. Other/Academic single-occurrence models are underrepresented by 23-24 percentage points, while reused academic/community models are slightly overrepresented (4-6pp). LLMs also suggest a much narrower range of methods overall: the effective number of model entities contracts from 1,232 to 59-96, and inter-LLM rank correlations (0.55-0.68) generally exceed LLM-to-paper correlations (0.33-0.56), so the distortions are largely shared across models. Popularity baselines, BM25 retrieval calibration, and paper-level similarity tests confirm that the outputs are query-specific responses, but filtered through a narrower set of options. Researchers who rely on LLM suggestions without cross-checking therefore risk narrowing their methodological search space toward a more concentrated default.
Abstract:Purpose: Higher education institutions face increasing pressure to audit course designs for generative AI (GenAI) integration. This paper presents an end-to-end method for using large language models (LLMs) to scan course information sheets at scale, identify where assessments may be vulnerable to student use of GenAI tools, validate system performance through iterative refinement, and operationalise results through direct stakeholder communication and effort. Method: We developed a four-phase pipeline: (0) manual pilot sampling, (1) iterative prompt engineering with multi-model comparison, (2) full production scan of 4,684 Bachelor and Master course information sheets (Academic Year 2024-2025) from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) with automated report generation and email distribution to teaching teams (91.4% address-matched) using a three-tier risk taxonomy (Clear risk, Potential risk, Low risk), and (3) longitudinal re-scan of 4,675 sheets after the next catalogue release. Results: Five iterations of prompt refinement achieved 87% agreement with expert labels. GPT-4o was selected for production based on superior handling of ambiguous cases involving internships and practical components. The Year 1 scan classified 60.3% of courses as Clear risk, 15.2% as Potential risk, and 24.5% as Low risk. Year 2 comparison revealed substantial shifts in risk distributions, with improvements most pronounced in practice-oriented programmes. Implications: The method enables institutions to rapidly transform heterogeneous catalogue data into structured and actionable intelligence. The approach is transferable to other audit domains (sustainability, accessibility, pedagogical alignment) and provides a template for responsible LLM deployment in higher education governance.
Abstract:Providing timely and individualised feedback on handwritten student work is highly beneficial for learning but difficult to achieve at scale. This challenge has become more pressing as generative AI undermines the reliability of take-home assessments, shifting emphasis toward supervised, in-class evaluation. We present a scalable, end-to-end workflow for LLM-assisted grading of short, pen-and-paper assessments. The workflow spans (1) constructing solution keys, (2) developing detailed rubric-style grading keys used to guide the LLM, and (3) a grading procedure that combines automated scanning and anonymisation, multi-pass LLM scoring, automated consistency checks, and mandatory human verification. We deploy the system in two undergraduate mathematics courses using six low-stakes in-class tests. Empirically, LLM assistance reduces grading time by approximately 23% while achieving agreement comparable to, and in several cases tighter than, fully manual grading. Occasional model errors occur but are effectively contained by the hybrid design. Overall, our results show that carefully embedded human-in-the-loop LLM grading can substantially reduce workload while maintaining fairness and accuracy.
Abstract:Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as scientific copilots, but evidence on their role in research-level mathematics remains limited, especially for workflows accessible to individual researchers. We present early evidence for vibe-proving with a consumer subscription LLM through an auditable case study that resolves Conjecture 20 of Ran and Teng (2024) on the exact nonreal spectral region of a 4-cycle row-stochastic nonnegative matrix family. We analyze seven shareable ChatGPT-5.2 (Thinking) threads and four versioned proof drafts, documenting an iterative pipeline of generate, referee, and repair. The model is most useful for high-level proof search, while human experts remain essential for correctness-critical closure. The final theorem provides necessary and sufficient region conditions and explicit boundary attainment constructions. Beyond the mathematical result, we contribute a process-level characterization of where LLM assistance materially helps and where verification bottlenecks persist, with implications for evaluation of AI-assisted research workflows and for designing human-in-the-loop theorem proving systems.
Abstract:Large language models (LLMs) increasingly solve difficult problems by producing "reasoning traces" before emitting a final response. However, it remains unclear how accuracy and decision commitment evolve along a reasoning trajectory, and whether intermediate trace segments provide answer-relevant information beyond generic length or stylistic effects. Here, we propose a protocol to systematically probe the trajectories of reasoning traces in LLMs by 1) generating a model's reasoning trace, 2) truncating it at fixed token-percentiles, and 3) injecting each partial trace back into the model (or a different model) to measure the induced distribution over answer choices via next-token probabilities. We apply this protocol to the open-source Qwen3-4B/-8B/-14B and gpt-oss-20b/-120b models across the multiple-choice GPQA Diamond and MMLU-Pro benchmarks. We find that accuracy and decision commitment consistently increase as the percentage of provided reasoning tokens grows. These gains are primarily driven by relevant content in the model generation rather than context length or generic "reasoning style" effects. Stronger models often backtrack successfully from incorrect partial traces, but immediate answers often remain anchored in the weaker model's incorrect response. More broadly, we show that trajectory probing provides diagnostics for efficient and safer deployment of reasoning models as the measurements can inform practical trace-handling and monitoring policies that improve reliability without assuming intermediate tokens are inherently faithful explanations.
Abstract:Large language models are increasingly used to curate bibliographies, raising the question: are their reference lists distinguishable from human ones? We build paired citation graphs, ground truth and GPT-4o-generated (from parametric knowledge), for 10,000 focal papers ($\approx$ 275k references) from SciSciNet, and added a field-matched random baseline that preserves out-degree and field distributions while breaking latent structure. We compare (i) structure-only node features (degree/closeness/eigenvector centrality, clustering, edge count) with (ii) 3072-D title/abstract embeddings, using an RF on graph-level aggregates and Graph Neural Networks with node features. Structure alone barely separates GPT from ground truth (RF accuracy $\approx$ 0.60) despite cleanly rejecting the random baseline ($\approx$ 0.89--0.92). By contrast, embeddings sharply increase separability: RF on aggregated embeddings reaches $\approx$ 0.83, and GNNs with embedding node features achieve 93\% test accuracy on GPT vs.\ ground truth. We show the robustness of our findings by replicating the pipeline with Claude Sonnet 4.5 and with multiple embedding models (OpenAI and SPECTER), with RF separability for ground truth vs.\ Claude $\approx 0.77$ and clean rejection of the random baseline. Thus, LLM bibliographies, generated purely from parametric knowledge, closely mimic human citation topology, but leave detectable semantic fingerprints; detection and debiasing should target content signals rather than global graph structure.