Energy-Arena: A Dynamic Benchmark for Operational Energy Forecasting

Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org.

CyberCertBench: Evaluating LLMs in Cybersecurity Certification Knowledge

The rapid evolution and use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in professional workflows require an evaluation of their domain-specific knowledge against industry standards. We introduceCyberCertBench, a new suite of Multiple Choice Question Answering (MCQA) benchmarks derived from industry recognized certifications. CyberCertBench evaluates LLM domain knowledgeagainst the professional standards of Information Technology cybersecurity and more specializedareas such as Operational Technology and related cybersecurity standards. Concurrently, we propose and validate a novel Proposer-Verifier framework, a methodology to generate interpretable,natural language explanations for model performance. Our evaluation shows that frontier modelsachieve human expert level in general networking and IT security knowledge. However, theiraccuracy declines in questions that require vendor-specific nuances or knowledge in formalstandards, like, e.g., IEC 62443. Analysis of model scaling trend and release date demonstratesremarkable gains in parameter efficiency, while recent larger models show diminishing returns.Code and evaluation scripts are available at: https://github.com/GKeppler/CyberCertBench.

Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only to support operational decisions, such as optimal bidding strategies and balancing power preparation, but also to reduce economic risk and improve market efficiency. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they quantify uncertainty stemming from renewable intermittency, market coupling, and regulatory changes, enabling market participants to make informed decisions that minimize losses and optimize expected revenues. However, it remains an open question which models to employ to produce accurate forecasts. Should these be task-specific machine learning (ML) models or Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs)? In this work, we compare four models for day-ahead probabilistic EPF (PEPF) in European bidding zones: a deterministic NHITS backbone with Quantile-Regression Averaging (NHITS+QRA) and a conditional Normalizing-Flow forecaster (NF) are compared with two TSFMs, namely Moirai and ChronosX. On the one hand, we find that TSFMs outperform task-specific deep learning models trained from scratch in terms of CRPS, Energy Score, and predictive interval calibration across market conditions. On the other hand, we find that well-configured task-specific models, particularly NHITS combined with QRA, achieve performance very close to TSFMs, and in some scenarios, such as when supplied with additional informative feature groups or adapted via few-shot learning from other European markets, they can even surpass TSFMs. Overall, our findings show that while TSFMs offer expressive modeling capabilities, conventional models remain highly competitive, emphasizing the need to weigh computational expense against marginal performance improvements in PEPF.

CritBench: A Framework for Evaluating Cybersecurity Capabilities of Large Language Models in IEC 61850 Digital Substation Environments

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has raised concerns regarding their dual-use potential in cybersecurity. Existing evaluation frameworks overwhelmingly focus on Information Technology (IT) environments, failing to capture the constraints, and specialized protocols of Operational Technology (OT). To address this gap, we introduce CritBench, a novel framework designed to evaluate the cybersecurity capabilities of LLM agents within IEC 61850 Digital Substation environments. We assess five state-of-the-art models, including OpenAI's GPT-5 suite and open-weight models, across a corpus of 81 domain-specific tasks spanning static configuration analysis, network traffic reconnaissance, and live virtual machine interaction. To facilitate industrial protocol interaction, we develop a domain-specific tool scaffold. Our empirical results show that agents reliably execute static structured-file analysis and single-tool network enumeration, but their performance degrades on dynamic tasks. Despite demonstrating explicit, internalized knowledge of the IEC 61850 standards terminology, current models struggle with the persistent sequential reasoning and state tracking required to manipulate live systems without specialized tools. Equipping agents with our domain-specific tool scaffold significantly mitigates this operational bottleneck. Code and evaluation scripts are available at: https://github.com/GKeppler/CritBench

A Multi-Agent System for Building-Age Cohort Mapping to Support Urban Energy Planning

Determining the age distribution of the urban building stock is crucial for sustainable municipal heat planning and upgrade prioritization. However, existing approaches often rely on datasets gathered via sensors or remote sensing techniques, leaving inconsistencies and gaps in data. We present a multi-agent LLM system comprising three key agents, the Zensus agent, the OSM agent, and the Monument agent, that fuse data from heterogeneous sources. A data orchestrator and harmonizer geocodes and deduplicates building imprints. Using this fused ground truth, we introduce BuildingAgeCNN, a satellite-only classifier based on a ConvNeXt backbone augmented with a Feature Pyramid Network (FPN), CoordConv spatial channels, and Squeeze-and-Excitation (SE) blocks. Under spatial cross validation, BuildingAgeCNN attains an overall accuracy of 90.69% but a modest macro-F1 of 67.25%, reflecting strong class imbalance and persistent confusions between adjacent historical cohorts. To mitigate risk for planning applications, the address-to prediction pipeline includes calibrated confidence estimates and flags low-confidence cases for manual review. This multi-agent LLM system not only assists in gathering structured data but also helps energy demand planners optimize district-heating networks and target low-carbon sustainable energy systems.

Improving Spatial Allocation for Energy System Coupling with Graph Neural Networks

In energy system analysis, coupling models with mismatched spatial resolutions is a significant challenge. A common solution is assigning weights to high-resolution geographic units for aggregation, but traditional models are limited by using only a single geospatial attribute. This paper presents an innovative method employing a self-supervised Heterogeneous Graph Neural Network to address this issue. This method models high-resolution geographic units as graph nodes, integrating various geographical features to generate physically meaningful weights for each grid point. These weights enhance the conventional Voronoi-based allocation method, allowing it to go beyond simply geographic proximity by incorporating essential geographic information.In addition, the self-supervised learning paradigm overcomes the lack of accurate ground-truth data. Experimental results demonstrate that applying weights generated by this method to cluster-based Voronoi Diagrams significantly enhances scalability, accuracy, and physical plausibility, while increasing precision compared to traditional methods.

HeatPrompt: Zero-Shot Vision-Language Modeling of Urban Heat Demand from Satellite Images

Accurate heat-demand maps play a crucial role in decarbonizing space heating, yet most municipalities lack detailed building-level data needed to calculate them. We introduce HeatPrompt, a zero-shot vision-language energy modeling framework that estimates annual heat demand using semantic features extracted from satellite images, basic Geographic Information System (GIS), and building-level features. We feed pretrained Large Vision Language Models (VLMs) with a domain-specific prompt to act as an energy planner and extract the visual attributes such as roof age, building density, etc, from the RGB satellite image that correspond to the thermal load. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) regressor trained on these captions shows an $R^2$ uplift of 93.7% and shrinks the mean absolute error (MAE) by 30% compared to the baseline model. Qualitative analysis shows that high-impact tokens align with high-demand zones, offering lightweight support for heat planning in data-scarce regions.

Explainable time-series forecasting with sampling-free SHAP for Transformers

Time-series forecasts are essential for planning and decision-making in many domains. Explainability is key to building user trust and meeting transparency requirements. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) is a popular explainable AI framework, but it lacks efficient implementations for time series and often assumes feature independence when sampling counterfactuals. We introduce SHAPformer, an accurate, fast and sampling-free explainable time-series forecasting model based on the Transformer architecture. It leverages attention manipulation to make predictions based on feature subsets. SHAPformer generates explanations in under one second, several orders of magnitude faster than the SHAP Permutation Explainer. On synthetic data with ground truth explanations, SHAPformer provides explanations that are true to the data. Applied to real-world electrical load data, it achieves competitive predictive performance and delivers meaningful local and global insights, such as identifying the past load as the key predictor and revealing a distinct model behavior during the Christmas period.

A Global Analysis of Cyber Threats to the Energy Sector: "Currents of Conflict" from a Geopolitical Perspective

The escalating frequency and sophistication of cyber threats increased the need for their comprehensive understanding. This paper explores the intersection of geopolitical dynamics, cyber threat intelligence analysis, and advanced detection technologies, with a focus on the energy domain. We leverage generative artificial intelligence to extract and structure information from raw cyber threat descriptions, enabling enhanced analysis. By conducting a geopolitical comparison of threat actor origins and target regions across multiple databases, we provide insights into trends within the general threat landscape. Additionally, we evaluate the effectiveness of cybersecurity tools -- with particular emphasis on learning-based techniques -- in detecting indicators of compromise for energy-targeted attacks. This analysis yields new insights, providing actionable information to researchers, policy makers, and cybersecurity professionals.

Decision-Focused Fine-Tuning of Time Series Foundation Models for Dispatchable Feeder Optimization

Time series foundation models provide a universal solution for generating forecasts to support optimization problems in energy systems. Those foundation models are typically trained in a prediction-focused manner to maximize forecast quality. In contrast, decision-focused learning directly improves the resulting value of the forecast in downstream optimization rather than merely maximizing forecasting quality. The practical integration of forecast values into forecasting models is challenging, particularly when addressing complex applications with diverse instances, such as buildings. This becomes even more complicated when instances possess specific characteristics that require instance-specific, tailored predictions to increase the forecast value. To tackle this challenge, we use decision-focused fine-tuning within time series foundation models to offer a scalable and efficient solution for decision-focused learning applied to the dispatchable feeder optimization problem. To obtain more robust predictions for scarce building data, we use Moirai as a state-of-the-art foundation model, which offers robust and generalized results with few-shot parameter-efficient fine-tuning. Comparing the decision-focused fine-tuned Moirai with a state-of-the-art classical prediction-focused fine-tuning Morai, we observe an improvement of 9.45% in average total daily costs.