Longitudinal Deep Kernel Gaussian Process Regression

We consider the problem of learning predictive models from longitudinal data, consisting of irregularly repeated, sparse observations from a set of individuals over time. Effective approaches to this problem have to account for the complex multi-level correlation structure in the data. Gaussian process models offer an attractive framework for longitudinal data analysis (LDA) because they require fewer assumptions about the underlying data distribution compared to parametric models and model complex correlation structure using a composition of kernels. However, such methods have two key shortcomings: (i) The kernel often relies on ad hoc heuristics or a tedious process of trial and error; and (ii) The methods do not scale with increasing number of individuals, observations per individual, or the number of covariates. We present L-DKGPR, an effective and scalable longitudinal deep kernel Gaussian process regression model that overcomes the key limitations of existing GP based approaches to predictive modeling from longitudinal data. Specifically, L-DKGPR eliminates the need for trial and error or ad hoc heuristics in choosing a kernel function using a deep kernel learning technique which combines the advantages of modern deep neural networks (DNN) with the non-parametric flexibility of kernel methods, to automate the discovery of the rich correlation structure from the data. L-DKGPR adopts a multilevel model to account for the time-invariant individual-specific random effects and the time-varying fixed effects. We show how L-DKGPR can be efficiently trained using a variant of the stochastic variational method. We report the results of extensive experiments using both simulated and real-world benchmark longitudinal data sets that demonstrate the superior performance of L-DKGPR over the state-of-the-art methods.

Towards Robust Relational Causal Discovery

We consider the problem of learning causal relationships from relational data. Existing approaches rely on queries to a relational conditional independence (RCI) oracle to establish and orient causal relations in such a setting. In practice, queries to a RCI oracle have to be replaced by reliable tests for RCI against available data. Relational data present several unique challenges in testing for RCI. We study the conditions under which traditional iid-based conditional independence (CI) tests yield reliable answers to RCI queries against relational data. We show how to conduct CI tests against relational data to robustly recover the underlying relational causal structure. Results of our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

Algorithmic Bias in Recidivism Prediction: A Causal Perspective

ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the underlying algorithmic fairness problem. Specifically, we assess whether COMPAS exhibits racial bias against African American defendants using FACT, a recently introduced causality grounded measure of algorithmic fairness. We use the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes framework for causal inference from observational data to estimate FACT from COMPAS data. Our analysis offers strong evidence that COMPAS exhibits racial bias against African American defendants. We further show that the FACT estimates from COMPAS data are robust in the presence of unmeasured confounding.

LMLFM: Longitudinal Multi-Level Factorization Machine

We consider the problem of learning predictive models from longitudinal data, consisting of irregularly repeated, sparse observations from a set of individuals over time. Such data often exhibit {\em longitudinal correlation} (LC) (correlations among observations for each individual over time), {\em cluster correlation} (CC) (correlations among individuals that have similar characteristics), or both. These correlations are often accounted for using {\em mixed effects models} that include {\em fixed effects} and {\em random effects}, where the fixed effects capture the regression parameters that are shared by all individuals, whereas random effects capture those parameters that vary across individuals. However, the current state-of-the-art methods are unable to select the most predictive fixed effects and random effects from a large number of variables, while accounting for complex correlation structure in the data and non-linear interactions among the variables. We propose Longitudinal Multi-Level Factorization Machine (LMLFM), to the best of our knowledge, the first model to address these challenges in learning predictive models from longitudinal data. We establish the convergence properties, and analyze the computational complexity, of LMLFM. We present results of experiments with both simulated and real-world longitudinal data which show that LMLFM outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in terms of predictive accuracy, variable selection ability, and scalability to data with large number of variables. The code and supplemental material is available at \url{https://github.com/junjieliang672/LMLFM}.

LMLFM: Longitudinal Multi-Level Factorization Machines

Selecting important variables and learning predictive models from high-dimensional longitudinal data is challenging due to the need to account for complex data correlation and expensive computation. In this work, we propose an extension of factorization machines, LMLFM, to deal with such longitudinal data. LMLFM is efficient, sparse, provably convergent and explainable. Specifically, LMLFM is the first multi-level model that can simultaneously select {\em fixed effects} and {\em random effects} while accounting for complex correlations in the data and non-linear interactions among variables. Experimental results with both simulated and real-world longitudinal data show that LMLFM outperforms the state-of-the-art longitudinal methods in terms of prediction accuracy with significantly lower false positive, using substantially less computational resources.

The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model in the Longitudinal Scenario

The Dynamical Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models provide an elegant non-parametric framework for learning the low dimensional representations of the high-dimensional time-series. Real world observational studies, however, are often ill-conditioned: the observations can be noisy, not assuming the luxury of relatively complete and equally spaced like those in time series. Such conditions make it difficult to learn reasonable representations in the high dimensional longitudinal data set by way of Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model as well as other dimensionality reduction procedures. In this study, we approach the inference of Gaussian Process Dynamical Systems in Longitudinal scenario by augmenting the bound in the variational approximation to include systematic samples of the unseen observations. We demonstrate the usefulness of this approach on synthetic as well as the human motion capture data set.

Node Injection Attacks on Graphs via Reinforcement Learning

Real-world graph applications, such as advertisements and product recommendations make profits based on accurately classify the label of the nodes. However, in such scenarios, there are high incentives for the adversaries to attack such graph to reduce the node classification performance. Previous work on graph adversarial attacks focus on modifying existing graph structures, which is infeasible in most real-world applications. In contrast, it is more practical to inject adversarial nodes into existing graphs, which can also potentially reduce the performance of the classifier. In this paper, we study the novel node injection poisoning attacks problem which aims to poison the graph. We describe a reinforcement learning based method, namely NIPA, to sequentially modify the adversarial information of the injected nodes. We report the results of experiments using several benchmark data sets that show the superior performance of the proposed method NIPA, relative to the existing state-of-the-art methods.

MEGAN: A Generative Adversarial Network for Multi-View Network Embedding

Data from many real-world applications can be naturally represented by multi-view networks where the different views encode different types of relationships (e.g., friendship, shared interests in music, etc.) between real-world individuals or entities. There is an urgent need for methods to obtain low-dimensional, information preserving and typically nonlinear embeddings of such multi-view networks. However, most of the work on multi-view learning focuses on data that lack a network structure, and most of the work on network embeddings has focused primarily on single-view networks. Against this background, we consider the multi-view network representation learning problem, i.e., the problem of constructing low-dimensional information preserving embeddings of multi-view networks. Specifically, we investigate a novel Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) framework for Multi-View Network Embedding, namely MEGAN, aimed at preserving the information from the individual network views, while accounting for connectivity across (and hence complementarity of and correlations between) different views. The results of our experiments on two real-world multi-view data sets show that the embeddings obtained using MEGAN outperform the state-of-the-art methods on node classification, link prediction and visualization tasks.

Fairness in Algorithmic Decision Making: An Excursion Through the Lens of Causality

As virtually all aspects of our lives are increasingly impacted by algorithmic decision making systems, it is incumbent upon us as a society to ensure such systems do not become instruments of unfair discrimination on the basis of gender, race, ethnicity, religion, etc. We consider the problem of determining whether the decisions made by such systems are discriminatory, through the lens of causal models. We introduce two definitions of group fairness grounded in causality: fair on average causal effect (FACE), and fair on average causal effect on the treated (FACT). We use the Rubin-Neyman potential outcomes framework for the analysis of cause-effect relationships to robustly estimate FACE and FACT. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach on synthetic data. Our analyses of two real-world data sets, the Adult income data set from the UCI repository (with gender as the protected attribute), and the NYC Stop and Frisk data set (with race as the protected attribute), show that the evidence of discrimination obtained by FACE and FACT, or lack thereof, is often in agreement with the findings from other studies. We further show that FACT, being somewhat more nuanced compared to FACE, can yield findings of discrimination that differ from those obtained using FACE.

Improving Image Captioning by Leveraging Knowledge Graphs

We explore the use of a knowledge graphs, that capture general or commonsense knowledge, to augment the information extracted from images by the state-of-the-art methods for image captioning. The results of our experiments, on several benchmark data sets such as MS COCO, as measured by CIDEr-D, a performance metric for image captioning, show that the variants of the state-of-the-art methods for image captioning that make use of the information extracted from knowledge graphs can substantially outperform those that rely solely on the information extracted from images.