ChaosBench: A Multi-Channel, Physics-Based Benchmark for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Climate Prediction

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

A Study on Social Robot Behavior in Group Conversation

Recently, research in human-robot interaction began to consider a robot's influence at the group level. Despite the recent growth in research investigating the effects of robots within groups of people, our overall understanding of what happens when robots are placed within groups or teams of people is still limited. This paper investigates several key problems for social robots that manage conversations in a group setting, where the number of participants is more than two. In a group setting, the conversation dynamics are a lot more complicated than the conventional one-to-one conversation, thus, there are more challenges need to be solved.

Scaling transformer neural networks for skillful and reliable medium-range weather forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer's favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints will be made publicly available.

ExPT: Synthetic Pretraining for Few-Shot Experimental Design

Experimental design is a fundamental problem in many science and engineering fields. In this problem, sample efficiency is crucial due to the time, money, and safety costs of real-world design evaluations. Existing approaches either rely on active data collection or access to large, labeled datasets of past experiments, making them impractical in many real-world scenarios. In this work, we address the more challenging yet realistic setting of few-shot experimental design, where only a few labeled data points of input designs and their corresponding values are available. We approach this problem as a conditional generation task, where a model conditions on a few labeled examples and the desired output to generate an optimal input design. To this end, we introduce Experiment Pretrained Transformers (ExPT), a foundation model for few-shot experimental design that employs a novel combination of synthetic pretraining with in-context learning. In ExPT, we only assume knowledge of a finite collection of unlabelled data points from the input domain and pretrain a transformer neural network to optimize diverse synthetic functions defined over this domain. Unsupervised pretraining allows ExPT to adapt to any design task at test time in an in-context fashion by conditioning on a few labeled data points from the target task and generating the candidate optima. We evaluate ExPT on few-shot experimental design in challenging domains and demonstrate its superior generality and performance compared to existing methods. The source code is available at https://github.com/tung-nd/ExPT.git.

An Admissible Shift-Consistent Method for Recommender Systems

In this paper, we propose a new constraint, called shift-consistency, for solving matrix/tensor completion problems in the context of recommender systems. Our method provably guarantees several key mathematical properties: (1) satisfies a recently established admissibility criterion for recommender systems; (2) satisfies a definition of fairness that eliminates a specific class of potential opportunities for users to maliciously influence system recommendations; and (3) offers robustness by exploiting provable uniqueness of missing-value imputation. We provide a rigorous mathematical description of the method, including its generalization from matrix to tensor form to permit representation and exploitation of complex structural relationships among sets of user and product attributes. We argue that our analysis suggests a structured means for defining latent-space projections that can permit provable performance properties to be established for machine learning methods.

Imposing Consistency Properties on Blackbox Systems with Applications to SVD-Based Recommender Systems

In this paper we discuss pre- and post-processing methods to induce desired consistency and/or invariance properties in blackbox systems, e.g., AI-based. We demonstrate our approach in the context of blackbox SVD-based matrix-completion methods commonly used in recommender system (RS) applications. We provide empirical results showing that enforcement of unit-consistency and shift-consistency, which have provable RS-relevant properties relating to robustness and fairness, also lead to improved performance according to generic RMSE and MAE performance metrics, irrespective of the initial chosen hyperparameter.

ClimateLearn: Benchmarking Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Modeling

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Utilization of domain knowledge to improve POMDP belief estimation

The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) framework is a common approach for decision making under uncertainty. Recently, multiple studies have shown that by integrating relevant domain knowledge into POMDP belief estimation, we can improve the learned policy's performance. In this study, we propose a novel method for integrating the domain knowledge into probabilistic belief update in POMDP framework using Jeffrey's rule and normalization. We show that the domain knowledge can be utilized to reduce the data requirement and improve performance for POMDP policy learning with RL.

ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Machine Learning Approach to Polymerization Reaction Engineering: Determining Monomers Reactivity Ratios

Here, we demonstrate how machine learning enables the prediction of comonomers reactivity ratios based on the molecular structure of monomers. We combined multi-task learning, multi-inputs, and Graph Attention Network to build a model capable of predicting reactivity ratios based on the monomers chemical structures.