Conformal Predictive Distributions for Order Fulfillment Time Forecasting

Accurate estimation of order fulfillment time is critical for e-commerce logistics, yet traditional rule-based approaches often fail to capture the inherent uncertainties in delivery operations. This paper introduces a novel framework for distributional forecasting of order fulfillment time, leveraging Conformal Predictive Systems and Cross Venn-Abers Predictors--model-agnostic techniques that provide rigorous coverage or validity guarantees. The proposed machine learning methods integrate granular spatiotemporal features, capturing fulfillment location and carrier performance dynamics to enhance predictive accuracy. Additionally, a cost-sensitive decision rule is developed to convert probabilistic forecasts into reliable point predictions. Experimental evaluation on a large-scale industrial dataset demonstrates that the proposed methods generate competitive distributional forecasts, while machine learning-based point predictions significantly outperform the existing rule-based system--achieving up to 14% higher prediction accuracy and up to 75% improvement in identifying late deliveries.

Boosting Column Generation with Graph Neural Networks for Joint Rider Trip Planning and Crew Shift Scheduling

Optimizing service schedules is pivotal to the reliable, efficient, and inclusive on-demand mobility. This pressing challenge is further exacerbated by the increasing needs of an aging population, the over-subscription of existing services, and the lack of effective solution methods. This study addresses the intricacies of service scheduling, by jointly optimizing rider trip planning and crew scheduling for a complex dynamic mobility service. The resulting optimization problems are extremely challenging computationally for state-of-the-art methods. To address this fundamental gap, this paper introduces the Joint Rider Trip Planning and Crew Shift Scheduling Problem (JRTPCSSP) and a novel solution method, called AGGNNI-CG (Attention and Gated GNN- Informed Column Generation), that hybridizes column generation and machine learning to obtain near-optimal solutions to the JRTPCSSP with the real-time constraints of the application. The key idea of the machine-learning component is to dramatically reduce the number of paths to explore in the pricing component, accelerating the most time-consuming component of the column generation. The machine learning component is a graph neural network with an attention mechanism and a gated architecture, that is particularly suited to cater for the different input sizes coming from daily operations. AGGNNI-CG has been applied to a challenging, real-world dataset from the Paratransit system of Chatham County in Georgia. It produces dramatic improvements compared to the baseline column generation approach, which typically cannot produce feasible solutions in reasonable time on both medium-sized and large-scale complex instances. AGGNNI-CG also produces significant improvements in service compared to the existing system.