Physically Meaningful Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Wind Turbine Power Curve Models as a Damage Sensitive Feature

A wind turbines' power curve is easily accessible damage sensitive data, and as such is a key part of structural health monitoring in wind turbines. Power curve models can be constructed in a number of ways, but the authors argue that probabilistic methods carry inherent benefits in this use case, such as uncertainty quantification and allowing uncertainty propagation analysis. Many probabilistic power curve models have a key limitation in that they are not physically meaningful - they return mean and uncertainty predictions outside of what is physically possible (the maximum and minimum power outputs of the wind turbine). This paper investigates the use of two bounded Gaussian Processes in order to produce physically meaningful probabilistic power curve models. The first model investigated was a warped heteroscedastic Gaussian process, and was found to be ineffective due to specific shortcomings of the Gaussian Process in relation to the warping function. The second model - an approximated Gaussian Process with a Beta likelihood was highly successful and demonstrated that a working bounded probabilistic model results in better predictive uncertainty than a corresponding unbounded one without meaningful loss in predictive accuracy. Such a bounded model thus offers increased accuracy for performance monitoring and increased operator confidence in the model due to guaranteed physical plausibility.

Bayesian Modelling of Multivalued Power Curves from an Operational Wind Farm

Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the measurements do not always correspond to the ideal curve: power curtailments will appear as (additional) functional components. Such multivalued relationships cannot be modelled by conventional regression, and the associated data are usually removed during pre-processing. The current work suggests an alternative method to infer multivalued relationships in curtailed power data. Using a population-based approach, an overlapping mixture of probabilistic regression models is applied to signals recorded from turbines within an operational wind farm. The model is shown to provide an accurate representation of practical power data across the population.