VESTA: Visual Exploration with Statistical Tool Agents

Fitting quantitative models to data is a central step in scientific workflows, yet it remains one of the least automated. Recent agent-based systems leverage language and vision-language models (VLMs) to iteratively propose and refine statistical models, but these systems struggle on more challenging modeling tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce VESTA: Visual Exploration with Statistical Tool Agents, a framework that equips VLMs with a dynamically growing exploration toolkit to guide model refinement through data transformations, hypothesis-driven visualizations, and robust statistical tests. Unlike prior systems that rely on iterative critique alone, VESTA actively explores data before and during refinement by selecting or creating diagnostic tools, which accumulate in the model's context and can be reused later. We evaluate VESTA against established baselines in three toolkit configurations: no tools, static expert-written tools, and dynamic model-written tools. To support this evaluation, we introduce DAWN (Dataset for Automated Workflows and Numerical Modeling), a benchmark targeting distribution fitting and time series modeling with varying difficulty tiers, and culminating in real-world astronomy tasks including modeling initial mass functions and gravitational-wave chirp signals. We find that VESTA's dynamic tool creation outperforms prior agentic pipelines, with the largest gains on complex and domain-specific tasks. We further show that dynamically generated tools are substantially more sophisticated than those produced by existing visual tool-creation systems, covering more diagnostic categories per function and strongly preferring visual outputs that the VLM critic can reason over directly.

AstroVisBench: A Code Benchmark for Scientific Computing and Visualization in Astronomy

Large Language Models (LLMs) are being explored for applications in scientific research, including their capabilities to synthesize literature, answer research questions, generate research ideas, and even conduct computational experiments. Ultimately, our goal is for these to help scientists derive novel scientific insights. In many areas of science, such insights often arise from processing and visualizing data to understand its patterns. However, evaluating whether an LLM-mediated scientific workflow produces outputs conveying the correct scientific insights is challenging to evaluate and has not been addressed in past work. We introduce AstroVisBench, the first benchmark for both scientific computing and visualization in the astronomy domain. AstroVisBench judges a language model's ability to both (1) create astronomy-specific workflows to process and analyze data and (2) visualize the results of these workflows through complex plots. Our evaluation of visualizations uses a novel LLM-as-a-judge workflow, which is validated against annotation by five professional astronomers. Using AstroVisBench we present an evaluation of state-of-the-art language models, showing a significant gap in their ability to engage in astronomy research as useful assistants. This evaluation provides a strong end-to-end evaluation for AI scientists that offers a path forward for the development of visualization-based workflows, which are central to a broad range of domains from physics to biology.