Uncertainty Aware Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Estimation from Satellite Data

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have been successfully applied to earth observation (EO) data and opened new research avenues. Despite the theoretical and practical advances of these techniques, DNNs are still considered black box tools and by default are designed to give point predictions. However, the majority of EO applications demand reliable uncertainty estimates that can support practitioners in critical decision making tasks. This work provides a theoretical and quantitative comparison of existing uncertainty quantification methods for DNNs applied to the task of wind speed estimation in satellite imagery of tropical cyclones. We provide a detailed evaluation of predictive uncertainty estimates from state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for DNNs. We find that predictive uncertainties can be utilized to further improve accuracy and analyze the predictive uncertainties of different methods across storm categories.

Decomposition of Uncertainty in Bayesian Deep Learning for Efficient and Risk-sensitive Learning

Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns in the data. We show how to extract and decompose uncertainty into epistemic and aleatoric components for decision-making purposes. This allows us to successfully identify informative points for active learning of functions with heteroscedastic and bimodal noise. Using the decomposition we further define a novel risk-sensitive criterion for reinforcement learning to identify policies that balance expected cost, model-bias and noise aversion.

Solving Bongard Problems with a Visual Language and Pragmatic Reasoning

More than 50 years ago Bongard introduced 100 visual concept learning problems as a testbed for intelligent vision systems. These problems are now known as Bongard problems. Although they are well known in the cognitive science and AI communities only moderate progress has been made towards building systems that can solve a substantial subset of them. In the system presented here, visual features are extracted through image processing and then translated into a symbolic visual vocabulary. We introduce a formal language that allows representing complex visual concepts based on this vocabulary. Using this language and Bayesian inference, complex visual concepts can be induced from the examples that are provided in each Bongard problem. Contrary to other concept learning problems the examples from which concepts are induced are not random in Bongard problems, instead they are carefully chosen to communicate the concept, hence requiring pragmatic reasoning. Taking pragmatic reasoning into account we find good agreement between the concepts with high posterior probability and the solutions formulated by Bongard himself. While this approach is far from solving all Bongard problems, it solves the biggest fraction yet.

A Benchmark Environment Motivated by Industrial Control Problems

In the research area of reinforcement learning (RL), frequently novel and promising methods are developed and introduced to the RL community. However, although many researchers are keen to apply their methods on real-world problems, implementing such methods in real industry environments often is a frustrating and tedious process. Generally, academic research groups have only limited access to real industrial data and applications. For this reason, new methods are usually developed, evaluated and compared by using artificial software benchmarks. On one hand, these benchmarks are designed to provide interpretable RL training scenarios and detailed insight into the learning process of the method on hand. On the other hand, they usually do not share much similarity with industrial real-world applications. For this reason we used our industry experience to design a benchmark which bridges the gap between freely available, documented, and motivated artificial benchmarks and properties of real industrial problems. The resulting industrial benchmark (IB) has been made publicly available to the RL community by publishing its Java and Python code, including an OpenAI Gym wrapper, on Github. In this paper we motivate and describe in detail the IB's dynamics and identify prototypic experimental settings that capture common situations in real-world industry control problems.

Sensitivity Analysis for Predictive Uncertainty in Bayesian Neural Networks

We derive a novel sensitivity analysis of input variables for predictive epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. We use Bayesian neural networks with latent variables as a model class and illustrate the usefulness of our sensitivity analysis on real-world datasets. Our method increases the interpretability of complex black-box probabilistic models.

Uncertainty Decomposition in Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with latent variables are probabilistic models which can automatically identify complex stochastic patterns in the data. We describe and study in these models a decomposition of predictive uncertainty into its epistemic and aleatoric components. First, we show how such a decomposition arises naturally in a Bayesian active learning scenario by following an information theoretic approach. Second, we use a similar decomposition to develop a novel risk sensitive objective for safe reinforcement learning (RL). This objective minimizes the effect of model bias in environments whose stochastic dynamics are described by BNNs with latent variables. Our experiments illustrate the usefulness of the resulting decomposition in active learning and safe RL settings.

Learning and Policy Search in Stochastic Dynamical Systems with Bayesian Neural Networks

We present an algorithm for model-based reinforcement learning that combines Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) with random roll-outs and stochastic optimization for policy learning. The BNNs are trained by minimizing $\alpha$-divergences, allowing us to capture complicated statistical patterns in the transition dynamics, e.g. multi-modality and heteroskedasticity, which are usually missed by other common modeling approaches. We illustrate the performance of our method by solving a challenging benchmark where model-based approaches usually fail and by obtaining promising results in a real-world scenario for controlling a gas turbine.