Disentangling the Potential Impacts of Papers into Diffusion, Conformity, and Contribution Values

The potential impact of an academic paper is determined by various factors, including its popularity and contribution. Existing models usually estimate original citation counts based on static graphs and fail to differentiate values from nuanced perspectives. In this study, we propose a novel graph neural network to Disentangle the Potential impacts of Papers into Diffusion, Conformity, and Contribution values (called DPPDCC). Given a target paper, DPPDCC encodes temporal and structural features within the constructed dynamic heterogeneous graph. Particularly, to capture the knowledge flow, we emphasize the importance of comparative and co-cited/citing information between papers and aggregate snapshots evolutionarily. To unravel popularity, we contrast augmented graphs to extract the essence of diffusion and predict the accumulated citation binning to model conformity. We further apply orthogonal constraints to encourage distinct modeling of each perspective and preserve the inherent value of contribution. To evaluate models' generalization for papers published at various times, we reformulate the problem by partitioning data based on specific time points to mirror real-world conditions. Extensive experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that DPPDCC significantly outperforms baselines for previously, freshly, and immediately published papers. Further analyses confirm its robust capabilities. We will make our datasets and codes publicly available.

H2CGL: Modeling Dynamics of Citation Network for Impact Prediction

The potential impact of a paper is often quantified by how many citations it will receive. However, most commonly used models may underestimate the influence of newly published papers over time, and fail to encapsulate this dynamics of citation network into the graph. In this study, we construct hierarchical and heterogeneous graphs for target papers with an annual perspective. The constructed graphs can record the annual dynamics of target papers' scientific context information. Then, a novel graph neural network, Hierarchical and Heterogeneous Contrastive Graph Learning Model (H2CGL), is proposed to incorporate heterogeneity and dynamics of the citation network. H2CGL separately aggregates the heterogeneous information for each year and prioritizes the highly-cited papers and relationships among references, citations, and the target paper. It then employs a weighted GIN to capture dynamics between heterogeneous subgraphs over years. Moreover, it leverages contrastive learning to make the graph representations more sensitive to potential citations. Particularly, co-cited or co-citing papers of the target paper with large citation gap are taken as hard negative samples, while randomly dropping low-cited papers could generate positive samples. Extensive experimental results on two scholarly datasets demonstrate that the proposed H2CGL significantly outperforms a series of baseline approaches for both previously and freshly published papers. Additional analyses highlight the significance of the proposed modules. Our codes and settings have been released on Github (https://github.com/ECNU-Text-Computing/H2CGL)