Disentangling the Potential Impacts of Papers into Diffusion, Conformity, and Contribution Values

The potential impact of an academic paper is determined by various factors, including its popularity and contribution. Existing models usually estimate original citation counts based on static graphs and fail to differentiate values from nuanced perspectives. In this study, we propose a novel graph neural network to Disentangle the Potential impacts of Papers into Diffusion, Conformity, and Contribution values (called DPPDCC). Given a target paper, DPPDCC encodes temporal and structural features within the constructed dynamic heterogeneous graph. Particularly, to capture the knowledge flow, we emphasize the importance of comparative and co-cited/citing information between papers and aggregate snapshots evolutionarily. To unravel popularity, we contrast augmented graphs to extract the essence of diffusion and predict the accumulated citation binning to model conformity. We further apply orthogonal constraints to encourage distinct modeling of each perspective and preserve the inherent value of contribution. To evaluate models' generalization for papers published at various times, we reformulate the problem by partitioning data based on specific time points to mirror real-world conditions. Extensive experimental results on three datasets demonstrate that DPPDCC significantly outperforms baselines for previously, freshly, and immediately published papers. Further analyses confirm its robust capabilities. We will make our datasets and codes publicly available.