Rotting Bandits

The Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) framework highlights the tension between acquiring new knowledge (Exploration) and leveraging available knowledge (Exploitation). In the classical MAB problem, a decision maker must choose an arm at each time step, upon which she receives a reward. The decision maker's objective is to maximize her cumulative expected reward over the time horizon. The MAB problem has been studied extensively, specifically under the assumption of the arms' rewards distributions being stationary, or quasi-stationary, over time. We consider a variant of the MAB framework, which we termed Rotting Bandits, where each arm's expected reward decays as a function of the number of times it has been pulled. We are motivated by many real-world scenarios such as online advertising, content recommendation, crowdsourcing, and more. We present algorithms, accompanied by simulations, and derive theoretical guarantees.

A nonparametric sequential test for online randomized experiments

We propose a nonparametric sequential test that aims to address two practical problems pertinent to online randomized experiments: (i) how to do a hypothesis test for complex metrics; (ii) how to prevent type $1$ error inflation under continuous monitoring. The proposed test does not require knowledge of the underlying probability distribution generating the data. We use the bootstrap to estimate the likelihood for blocks of data followed by mixture sequential probability ratio test. We validate this procedure on data from a major online e-commerce website. We show that the proposed test controls type $1$ error at any time, has good power, is robust to misspecification in the distribution generating the data, and allows quick inference in online randomized experiments.

Multi-objective Bandits: Optimizing the Generalized Gini Index

We study the multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem where the agent receives a vectorial feedback that encodes many possibly competing objectives to be optimized. The goal of the agent is to find a policy, which can optimize these objectives simultaneously in a fair way. This multi-objective online optimization problem is formalized by using the Generalized Gini Index (GGI) aggregation function. We propose an online gradient descent algorithm which exploits the convexity of the GGI aggregation function, and controls the exploration in a careful way achieving a distribution-free regret $\tilde{\bigO} (T^{-1/2} )$ with high probability. We test our algorithm on synthetic data as well as on an electric battery control problem where the goal is to trade off the use of the different cells of a battery in order to balance their respective degradation rates.

Graying the black box: Understanding DQNs

In recent years there is a growing interest in using deep representations for reinforcement learning. In this paper, we present a methodology and tools to analyze Deep Q-networks (DQNs) in a non-blind matter. Moreover, we propose a new model, the Semi Aggregated Markov Decision Process (SAMDP), and an algorithm that learns it automatically. The SAMDP model allows us to identify spatio-temporal abstractions directly from features and may be used as a sub-goal detector in future work. Using our tools we reveal that the features learned by DQNs aggregate the state space in a hierarchical fashion, explaining its success. Moreover, we are able to understand and describe the policies learned by DQNs for three different Atari2600 games and suggest ways to interpret, debug and optimize deep neural networks in reinforcement learning.

Deep Robust Kalman Filter

A Robust Markov Decision Process (RMDP) is a sequential decision making model that accounts for uncertainty in the parameters of dynamic systems. This uncertainty introduces difficulties in learning an optimal policy, especially for environments with large state spaces. We propose two algorithms, RTD-DQN and Deep-RoK, for solving large-scale RMDPs using nonlinear approximation schemes such as deep neural networks. The RTD-DQN algorithm incorporates the robust Bellman temporal difference error into a robust loss function, yielding robust policies for the agent. The Deep-RoK algorithm is a robust Bayesian method, based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), that accounts for both the uncertainty in the weights of the approximated value function and the uncertainty in the transition probabilities, improving the robustness of the agent. We provide theoretical results for our approach and test the proposed algorithms on a continuous state domain.

Online Learning with Many Experts

We study the problem of prediction with expert advice when the number of experts in question may be extremely large or even infinite. We devise an algorithm that obtains a tight regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\epsilon T + N + \sqrt{NT})$, where $N$ is the empirical $\epsilon$-covering number of the sequence of loss functions generated by the environment. In addition, we present a hedging procedure that allows us to find the optimal $\epsilon$ in hindsight. Finally, we discuss a few interesting applications of our algorithm. We show how our algorithm is applicable in the approximately low rank experts model of Hazan et al. (2016), and discuss the case of experts with bounded variation, in which there is a surprisingly large gap between the regret bounds obtained in the statistical and online settings.

Consistent On-Line Off-Policy Evaluation

The problem of on-line off-policy evaluation (OPE) has been actively studied in the last decade due to its importance both as a stand-alone problem and as a module in a policy improvement scheme. However, most Temporal Difference (TD) based solutions ignore the discrepancy between the stationary distribution of the behavior and target policies and its effect on the convergence limit when function approximation is applied. In this paper we propose the Consistent Off-Policy Temporal Difference (COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$)) algorithm that addresses this issue and reduces this bias at some computational expense. We show that COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$) can be designed to converge to the same value that would have been obtained by using on-policy TD($\lambda$) with the target policy. Subsequently, the proposed scheme leads to a related and promising heuristic we call log-COP-TD($\lambda$, $\beta$). Both algorithms have favorable empirical results to the current state of the art on-line OPE algorithms. Finally, our formulation sheds some new light on the recently proposed Emphatic TD learning.

Outlier Robust Online Learning

We consider the problem of learning from noisy data in practical settings where the size of data is too large to store on a single machine. More challenging, the data coming from the wild may contain malicious outliers. To address the scalability and robustness issues, we present an online robust learning (ORL) approach. ORL is simple to implement and has provable robustness guarantee -- in stark contrast to existing online learning approaches that are generally fragile to outliers. We specialize the ORL approach for two concrete cases: online robust principal component analysis and online linear regression. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness advantages of ORL through comprehensive simulations and predicting image tags on a large-scale data set. We also discuss extension of the ORL to distributed learning and provide experimental evaluations.

Adaptive Lambda Least-Squares Temporal Difference Learning

Temporal Difference learning or TD($\lambda$) is a fundamental algorithm in the field of reinforcement learning. However, setting TD's $\lambda$ parameter, which controls the timescale of TD updates, is generally left up to the practitioner. We formalize the $\lambda$ selection problem as a bias-variance trade-off where the solution is the value of $\lambda$ that leads to the smallest Mean Squared Value Error (MSVE). To solve this trade-off we suggest applying Leave-One-Trajectory-Out Cross-Validation (LOTO-CV) to search the space of $\lambda$ values. Unfortunately, this approach is too computationally expensive for most practical applications. For Least Squares TD (LSTD) we show that LOTO-CV can be implemented efficiently to automatically tune $\lambda$ and apply function optimization methods to efficiently search the space of $\lambda$ values. The resulting algorithm, ALLSTD, is parameter free and our experiments demonstrate that ALLSTD is significantly computationally faster than the na\"{i}ve LOTO-CV implementation while achieving similar performance.

Supervised Learning for Optimal Power Flow as a Real-Time Proxy

In this work we design and compare different supervised learning algorithms to compute the cost of Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF). The motivation for quick calculation of OPF cost outcomes stems from the growing need of algorithmic-based long-term and medium-term planning methodologies in power networks. Integrated in a multiple time-horizon coordination framework, we refer to this approximation module as a proxy for predicting short-term decision outcomes without the need of actual simulation and optimization of them. Our method enables fast approximate calculation of OPF cost with less than 1% error on average, achieved in run-times that are several orders of magnitude lower than of exact computation. Several test-cases such as IEEE-RTS96 are used to demonstrate the efficiency of our approach.