SciPredict: Can LLMs Predict the Outcomes of Scientific Experiments in Natural Sciences?

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is $\approx$20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only $\approx$20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from $\approx$5% to $\approx$80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

Beyond Seeing: Evaluating Multimodal LLMs on Tool-Enabled Image Perception, Transformation, and Reasoning

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly applied in real-world scenarios where user-provided images are often imperfect, requiring active image manipulations such as cropping, editing, or enhancement to uncover salient visual cues. Beyond static visual perception, MLLMs must also think with images: dynamically transforming visual content and integrating it with other tools to solve complex tasks. However, this shift from treating vision as passive context to a manipulable cognitive workspace remains underexplored. Most existing benchmarks still follow a think about images paradigm, where images are regarded as static inputs. To address this gap, we introduce IRIS, an Interactive Reasoning with Images and Systems that evaluates MLLMs' ability to perceive, transform, and reason across complex visual-textual tasks under the think with images paradigm. IRIS comprises 1,204 challenging, open-ended vision tasks (603 single-turn, 601 multi-turn) spanning across five diverse domains, each paired with detailed rubrics to enable systematic evaluation. Our evaluation shows that current MLLMs struggle with tasks requiring effective integration of vision and general-purpose tools. Even the strongest model (GPT-5-think) reaches only 18.68% pass rate. We further observe divergent tool-use behaviors, with OpenAI models benefiting from diverse image manipulations while Gemini-2.5-pro shows no improvement. By introducing the first benchmark centered on think with images, IRIS offers critical insights for advancing visual intelligence in MLLMs.