Sailing Towards Zero-Shot State Estimation using Foundation Models Combined with a UKF

State estimation in control and systems engineering traditionally requires extensive manual system identification or data-collection effort. However, transformer-based foundation models in other domains have reduced data requirements by leveraging pre-trained generalist models. Ultimately, developing zero-shot foundation models of system dynamics could drastically reduce manual deployment effort. While recent work shows that transformer-based end-to-end approaches can achieve zero-shot performance on unseen systems, they are limited to sensor models seen during training. We introduce the foundation model unscented Kalman filter (FM-UKF), which combines a transformer-based model of system dynamics with analytically known sensor models via an UKF, enabling generalization across varying dynamics without retraining for new sensor configurations. We evaluate FM-UKF on a new benchmark of container ship models with complex dynamics, demonstrating a competitive accuracy, effort, and robustness trade-off compared to classical methods with approximate system knowledge and to an end-to-end approach. The benchmark and dataset are open sourced to further support future research in zero-shot state estimation via foundation models.

Viability of Future Actions: Robust Safety in Reinforcement Learning via Entropy Regularization

Despite the many recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL), the question of learning policies that robustly satisfy state constraints under unknown disturbances remains open. In this paper, we offer a new perspective on achieving robust safety by analyzing the interplay between two well-established techniques in model-free RL: entropy regularization, and constraints penalization. We reveal empirically that entropy regularization in constrained RL inherently biases learning toward maximizing the number of future viable actions, thereby promoting constraints satisfaction robust to action noise. Furthermore, we show that by relaxing strict safety constraints through penalties, the constrained RL problem can be approximated arbitrarily closely by an unconstrained one and thus solved using standard model-free RL. This reformulation preserves both safety and optimality while empirically improving resilience to disturbances. Our results indicate that the connection between entropy regularization and robustness is a promising avenue for further empirical and theoretical investigation, as it enables robust safety in RL through simple reward shaping.

A kernel conditional two-sample test

We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct conditional two-sample statistical tests. These tests identify the inputs -- called covariates in this context -- where two conditional expectations differ with high probability. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a conditional two-sample test, and we instantiate this principle for kernel ridge regression (KRR) and conditional kernel mean embeddings. We generalize existing pointwise-in-time or time-uniform confidence bounds for KRR to previously-inaccessible yet essential cases such as infinite-dimensional outputs with non-trace-class kernels. These bounds enable circumventing the need for independent data in our statistical tests, since they allow online sampling. We also introduce bootstrapping schemes leveraging the parametric form of testing thresholds identified in theory to avoid tuning inaccessible parameters, making our method readily applicable in practice. Such conditional two-sample tests are especially relevant in applications where data arrive sequentially or non-independently, or when output distributions vary with operational parameters. We demonstrate their utility through examples in process monitoring and comparison of dynamical systems. Overall, our results establish a comprehensive foundation for conditional two-sample testing, from theoretical guarantees to practical implementation, and advance the state-of-the-art on the concentration of vector-valued least squares estimation.

Concept Extraction for Time Series with ECLAD-ts

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for time series classification (TSC) are being increasingly used in applications ranging from quality prediction to medical diagnosis. The black box nature of these models makes understanding their prediction process difficult. This issue is crucial because CNNs are prone to learning shortcuts and biases, compromising their robustness and alignment with human expectations. To assess whether such mechanisms are being used and the associated risk, it is essential to provide model explanations that reflect the inner workings of the model. Concept Extraction (CE) methods offer such explanations, but have mostly been developed for the image domain so far, leaving a gap in the time series domain. In this work, we present a CE and localization method tailored to the time series domain, based on the ideas of CE methods for images. We propose the novel method ECLAD-ts, which provides post-hoc global explanations based on how the models encode subsets of the input at different levels of abstraction. For this, concepts are produced by clustering timestep-wise aggregations of CNN activation maps, and their importance is computed based on their impact on the prediction process. We evaluate our method on synthetic and natural datasets. Furthermore, we assess the advantages and limitations of CE in time series through empirical results. Our results show that ECLAD-ts effectively explains models by leveraging their internal representations, providing useful insights about their prediction process.

Diffusion-Based Approximate MPC: Fast and Consistent Imitation of Multi-Modal Action Distributions

Approximating model predictive control (MPC) using imitation learning (IL) allows for fast control without solving expensive optimization problems online. However, methods that use neural networks in a simple L2-regression setup fail to approximate multi-modal (set-valued) solution distributions caused by local optima found by the numerical solver or non-convex constraints, such as obstacles, significantly limiting the applicability of approximate MPC in practice. We solve this issue by using diffusion models to accurately represent the complete solution distribution (i.e., all modes) at high control rates (more than 1000 Hz). This work shows that diffusion based AMPC significantly outperforms L2-regression-based approximate MPC for multi-modal action distributions. In contrast to most earlier work on IL, we also focus on running the diffusion-based controller at a higher rate and in joint space instead of end-effector space. Additionally, we propose the use of gradient guidance during the denoising process to consistently pick the same mode in closed loop to prevent switching between solutions. We propose using the cost and constraint satisfaction of the original MPC problem during parallel sampling of solutions from the diffusion model to pick a better mode online. We evaluate our method on the fast and accurate control of a 7-DoF robot manipulator both in simulation and on hardware deployed at 250 Hz, achieving a speedup of more than 70 times compared to solving the MPC problem online and also outperforming the numerical optimization (used for training) in success ratio.

The Mini Wheelbot: A Testbed for Learning-based Balancing, Flips, and Articulated Driving

The Mini Wheelbot is a balancing, reaction wheel unicycle robot designed as a testbed for learning-based control. It is an unstable system with highly nonlinear yaw dynamics, non-holonomic driving, and discrete contact switches in a small, powerful, and rugged form factor. The Mini Wheelbot can use its wheels to stand up from any initial orientation - enabling automatic environment resets in repetitive experiments and even challenging half flips. We illustrate the effectiveness of the Mini Wheelbot as a testbed by implementing two popular learning-based control algorithms. First, we showcase Bayesian optimization for tuning the balancing controller. Second, we use imitation learning from an expert nonlinear MPC that uses gyroscopic effects to reorient the robot and can track higher-level velocity and orientation commands. The latter allows the robot to drive around based on user commands - for the first time in this class of robots. The Mini Wheelbot is not only compelling for testing learning-based control algorithms, but it is also just fun to work with, as demonstrated in the video of our experiments.

On Rollouts in Model-Based Reinforcement Learning

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) seeks to enhance data efficiency by learning a model of the environment and generating synthetic rollouts from it. However, accumulated model errors during these rollouts can distort the data distribution, negatively impacting policy learning and hindering long-term planning. Thus, the accumulation of model errors is a key bottleneck in current MBRL methods. We propose Infoprop, a model-based rollout mechanism that separates aleatoric from epistemic model uncertainty and reduces the influence of the latter on the data distribution. Further, Infoprop keeps track of accumulated model errors along a model rollout and provides termination criteria to limit data corruption. We demonstrate the capabilities of Infoprop in the Infoprop-Dyna algorithm, reporting state-of-the-art performance in Dyna-style MBRL on common MuJoCo benchmark tasks while substantially increasing rollout length and data quality.

Safety in safe Bayesian optimization and its ramifications for control

A recurring and important task in control engineering is parameter tuning under constraints, which conceptually amounts to optimization of a blackbox function accessible only through noisy evaluations. For example, in control practice parameters of a pre-designed controller are often tuned online in feedback with a plant, and only safe parameter values should be tried, avoiding for example instability. Recently, machine learning methods have been deployed for this important problem, in particular, Bayesian optimization (BO). To handle safety constraints, algorithms from safe BO have been utilized, especially SafeOpt-type algorithms, which enjoy considerable popularity in learning-based control, robotics, and adjacent fields. However, we identify two significant obstacles to practical safety. First, SafeOpt-type algorithms rely on quantitative uncertainty bounds, and most implementations replace these by theoretically unsupported heuristics. Second, the theoretically valid uncertainty bounds crucially depend on a quantity - the reproducing kernel Hilbert space norm of the target function - that at present is impossible to reliably bound using established prior engineering knowledge. By careful numerical experiments we show that these issues can indeed cause safety violations. To overcome these problems, we propose Lipschitz-only Safe Bayesian Optimization (LoSBO), a safe BO algorithm that relies only on a known Lipschitz bound for its safety. Furthermore, we propose a variant (LoS-GP-UCB) that avoids gridding of the search space and is therefore applicable even for moderately high-dimensional problems.

CHEQ-ing the Box: Safe Variable Impedance Learning for Robotic Polishing

Robotic systems are increasingly employed for industrial automation, with contact-rich tasks like polishing requiring dexterity and compliant behaviour. These tasks are difficult to model, making classical control challenging. Deep reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising solution by enabling the learning of models and control policies directly from data. However, its application to real-world problems is limited by data inefficiency and unsafe exploration. Adaptive hybrid RL methods blend classical control and RL adaptively, combining the strengths of both: structure from control and learning from RL. This has led to improvements in data efficiency and exploration safety. However, their potential for hardware applications remains underexplored, with no evaluations on physical systems to date. Such evaluations are critical to fully assess the practicality and effectiveness of these methods in real-world settings. This work presents an experimental demonstration of the hybrid RL algorithm CHEQ for robotic polishing with variable impedance, a task requiring precise force and velocity tracking. In simulation, we show that variable impedance enhances polishing performance. We compare standalone RL with adaptive hybrid RL, demonstrating that CHEQ achieves effective learning while adhering to safety constraints. On hardware, CHEQ achieves effective polishing behaviour, requiring only eight hours of training and incurring just five failures. These results highlight the potential of adaptive hybrid RL for real-world, contact-rich tasks trained directly on hardware.

Bayesian Optimization via Continual Variational Last Layer Training

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely seen as the state-of-the-art surrogate models for Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their ability to model uncertainty and their performance on tasks where correlations are easily captured (such as those defined by Euclidean metrics) and their ability to be efficiently updated online. However, the performance of GPs depends on the choice of kernel, and kernel selection for complex correlation structures is often difficult or must be made bespoke. While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are a promising direction for higher capacity surrogate models, they have so far seen limited use due to poor performance on some problem types. In this paper, we propose an approach which shows competitive performance on many problem types, including some that BNNs typically struggle with. We build on variational Bayesian last layers (VBLLs), and connect training of these models to exact conditioning in GPs. We exploit this connection to develop an efficient online training algorithm that interleaves conditioning and optimization. Our findings suggest that VBLL networks significantly outperform GPs and other BNN architectures on tasks with complex input correlations, and match the performance of well-tuned GPs on established benchmark tasks.