Efficient Benchmarking Is Just Feature Selection and Multiple Regression

Efficient benchmarking techniques aim to lower the computational cost of evaluating LLMs by predicting full benchmark scores using only a subset of a benchmark's questions. By reframing this problem as an instance of multiple regression with feature selection, we find that existing efficient benchmarking methods can be greatly improved by simply using kernel ridge regression at the prediction stage. Additionally, using an information-theoretic feature-selection algorithm called minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), we can further improve upon these methods by selecting question subsets that will be maximally useful for prediction. Except in very data-poor settings, these approaches consistently achieve smaller prediction errors (in both MAE and RMSE), and greater ranking correlation between predicted and true scores (in both Spearman $ρ$ and Kendall $τ$) across a range of benchmarks using both binary and continuous metrics. Furthermore, mRMR subsampling is much faster than competitor methods (which often involve fitting probabilistic models or running clustering algorithms), and is more likely to select the same questions under different random seeds or training data splits. Tutorial code can be found at https://github.com/sambowyer/mrmr_eval .

Learning Generation Orders for Masked Discrete Diffusion Models via Variational Inference

Masked discrete diffusion models (MDMs) are a promising new approach to generative modelling, offering the ability for parallel token generation and therefore greater efficiency than autoregressive counterparts. However, achieving an optimal balance between parallel generation and sample quality remains an open problem. Current approaches primarily address this issue through fixed, heuristic parallel sampling methods. There exist some recent learning based approaches to this problem, but its formulation from the perspective of variational inference remains underexplored. In this work, we propose a variational inference framework for learning parallel generation orders for MDMs. As part of our method, we propose a parameterisation for the approximate posterior of generation orders which facilitates parallelism and efficient sampling during training. Using this method, we conduct preliminary experiments on the GSM8K dataset, where our method performs competitively against heuristic sampling strategies in the regime of highly parallel generation. For example, our method achieves 33.1\% accuracy with an average of only only 4 generation steps, compared to 23.7-29.0\% accuracy achieved by standard competitor methods in the same number of steps. We believe further experiments and analysis of the method will yield valuable insights into the problem of parallel generation with MDMs.

Massively Parallel Expectation Maximization For Approximate Posteriors

Bayesian inference for hierarchical models can be very challenging. MCMC methods have difficulty scaling to large models with many observations and latent variables. While variational inference (VI) and reweighted wake-sleep (RWS) can be more scalable, they are gradient-based methods and so often require many iterations to converge. Our key insight was that modern massively parallel importance weighting methods (Bowyer et al., 2024) give fast and accurate posterior moment estimates, and we can use these moment estimates to rapidly learn an approximate posterior. Specifically, we propose using expectation maximization to fit the approximate posterior, which we call QEM. The expectation step involves computing the posterior moments using high-quality massively parallel estimates from Bowyer et al. (2024). The maximization step involves fitting the approximate posterior using these moments, which can be done straightforwardly for simple approximate posteriors such as Gaussian, Gamma, Beta, Dirichlet, Binomial, Multinomial, Categorical, etc. (or combinations thereof). We show that QEM is faster than state-of-the-art, massively parallel variants of RWS and VI, and is invariant to reparameterizations of the model that dramatically slow down gradient based methods.

Position: Don't use the CLT in LLM evals with fewer than a few hundred datapoints

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .