Towards Personalised Patient Risk Prediction Using Temporal Hospital Data Trajectories

Quantifying a patient's health status provides clinicians with insight into patient risk, and the ability to better triage and manage resources. Early Warning Scores (EWS) are widely deployed to measure overall health status, and risk of adverse outcomes, in hospital patients. However, current EWS are limited both by their lack of personalisation and use of static observations. We propose a pipeline that groups intensive care unit patients by the trajectories of observations data throughout their stay as a basis for the development of personalised risk predictions. Feature importance is considered to provide model explainability. Using the MIMIC-IV dataset, six clusters were identified, capturing differences in disease codes, observations, lengths of admissions and outcomes. Applying the pipeline to data from just the first four hours of each ICU stay assigns the majority of patients to the same cluster as when the entire stay duration is considered. In-hospital mortality prediction models trained on individual clusters had higher F1 score performance in five of the six clusters when compared against the unclustered patient cohort. The pipeline could form the basis of a clinical decision support tool, working to improve the clinical characterisation of risk groups and the early detection of patient deterioration.

Safe and Robust Reinforcement Learning: Principles and Practice

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown remarkable success in solving relatively complex tasks, yet the deployment of RL systems in real-world scenarios poses significant challenges related to safety and robustness. This paper aims to identify and further understand those challenges thorough the exploration of the main dimensions of the safe and robust RL landscape, encompassing algorithmic, ethical, and practical considerations. We conduct a comprehensive review of methodologies and open problems that summarizes the efforts in recent years to address the inherent risks associated with RL applications. After discussing and proposing definitions for both safe and robust RL, the paper categorizes existing research works into different algorithmic approaches that enhance the safety and robustness of RL agents. We examine techniques such as uncertainty estimation, optimisation methodologies, exploration-exploitation trade-offs, and adversarial training. Environmental factors, including sim-to-real transfer and domain adaptation, are also scrutinized to understand how RL systems can adapt to diverse and dynamic surroundings. Moreover, human involvement is an integral ingredient of the analysis, acknowledging the broad set of roles that humans can take in this context. Importantly, to aid practitioners in navigating the complexities of safe and robust RL implementation, this paper introduces a practical checklist derived from the synthesized literature. The checklist encompasses critical aspects of algorithm design, training environment considerations, and ethical guidelines. It will serve as a resource for developers and policymakers alike to ensure the responsible deployment of RL systems in many application domains.

Evaluating Perceptual Distances by Fitting Binomial Distributions to Two-Alternative Forced Choice Data

The two-alternative forced choice (2AFC) experimental setup is popular in the visual perception literature, where practitioners aim to understand how human observers perceive distances within triplets that consist of a reference image and two distorted versions of that image. In the past, this had been conducted in controlled environments, with a tournament-style algorithm dictating which images are shown to each participant to rank the distorted images. Recently, crowd-sourced perceptual datasets have emerged, with no images shared between triplets, making ranking impossible. Evaluating perceptual distances using this data is non-trivial, relying on reducing the collection of judgements on a triplet to a binary decision -- which is suboptimal and prone to misleading conclusions. Instead, we statistically model the underlying decision-making process during 2AFC experiments using a binomial distribution. We use maximum likelihood estimation to fit a distribution to the perceptual judgements, conditioned on the perceptual distance to test and impose consistency and smoothness between our empirical estimates of the density. This way, we can evaluate a different number of judgements per triplet, and can calculate metrics such as likelihoods of judgements according to a set of distances -- key ingredients that neural network counterparts lack.

Data is Overrated: Perceptual Metrics Can Lead Learning in the Absence of Training Data

Perceptual metrics are traditionally used to evaluate the quality of natural signals, such as images and audio. They are designed to mimic the perceptual behaviour of human observers and usually reflect structures found in natural signals. This motivates their use as loss functions for training generative models such that models will learn to capture the structure held in the metric. We take this idea to the extreme in the audio domain by training a compressive autoencoder to reconstruct uniform noise, in lieu of natural data. We show that training with perceptual losses improves the reconstruction of spectrograms and re-synthesized audio at test time over models trained with a standard Euclidean loss. This demonstrates better generalisation to unseen natural signals when using perceptual metrics.

LL-VQ-VAE: Learnable Lattice Vector-Quantization For Efficient Representations

In this paper we introduce learnable lattice vector quantization and demonstrate its effectiveness for learning discrete representations. Our method, termed LL-VQ-VAE, replaces the vector quantization layer in VQ-VAE with lattice-based discretization. The learnable lattice imposes a structure over all discrete embeddings, acting as a deterrent against codebook collapse, leading to high codebook utilization. Compared to VQ-VAE, our method obtains lower reconstruction errors under the same training conditions, trains in a fraction of the time, and with a constant number of parameters (equal to the embedding dimension $D$), making it a very scalable approach. We demonstrate these results on the FFHQ-1024 dataset and include FashionMNIST and Celeb-A.

TraCE: Trajectory Counterfactual Explanation Scores

Counterfactual explanations, and their associated algorithmic recourse, are typically leveraged to understand, explain, and potentially alter a prediction coming from a black-box classifier. In this paper, we propose to extend the use of counterfactuals to evaluate progress in sequential decision making tasks. To this end, we introduce a model-agnostic modular framework, TraCE (Trajectory Counterfactual Explanation) scores, which is able to distill and condense progress in highly complex scenarios into a single value. We demonstrate TraCE's utility across domains by showcasing its main properties in two case studies spanning healthcare and climate change.

Counterfactual Explanations via Locally-guided Sequential Algorithmic Recourse

Counterfactuals operationalised through algorithmic recourse have become a powerful tool to make artificial intelligence systems explainable. Conceptually, given an individual classified as y -- the factual -- we seek actions such that their prediction becomes the desired class y' -- the counterfactual. This process offers algorithmic recourse that is (1) easy to customise and interpret, and (2) directly aligned with the goals of each individual. However, the properties of a "good" counterfactual are still largely debated; it remains an open challenge to effectively locate a counterfactual along with its corresponding recourse. Some strategies use gradient-driven methods, but these offer no guarantees on the feasibility of the recourse and are open to adversarial attacks on carefully created manifolds. This can lead to unfairness and lack of robustness. Other methods are data-driven, which mostly addresses the feasibility problem at the expense of privacy, security and secrecy as they require access to the entire training data set. Here, we introduce LocalFACE, a model-agnostic technique that composes feasible and actionable counterfactual explanations using locally-acquired information at each step of the algorithmic recourse. Our explainer preserves the privacy of users by only leveraging data that it specifically requires to construct actionable algorithmic recourse, and protects the model by offering transparency solely in the regions deemed necessary for the intervention.

MIDI-Draw: Sketching to Control Melody Generation

We describe a proof-of-principle implementation of a system for drawing melodies that abstracts away from a note-level input representation via melodic contours. The aim is to allow users to express their musical intentions without requiring prior knowledge of how notes fit together melodiously. Current approaches to controllable melody generation often require users to choose parameters that are static across a whole sequence, via buttons or sliders. In contrast, our method allows users to quickly specify how parameters should change over time by drawing a contour.

What You Hear Is What You See: Audio Quality Metrics From Image Quality Metrics

In this study, we investigate the feasibility of utilizing state-of-the-art image perceptual metrics for evaluating audio signals by representing them as spectrograms. The encouraging outcome of the proposed approach is based on the similarity between the neural mechanisms in the auditory and visual pathways. Furthermore, we customise one of the metrics which has a psychoacoustically plausible architecture to account for the peculiarities of sound signals. We evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed metric and several baseline metrics using a music dataset, with promising results in terms of the correlation between the metrics and the perceived quality of audio as rated by human evaluators.

Disentangling the Link Between Image Statistics and Human Perception

In the 1950s Horace Barlow and Fred Attneave suggested a connection between sensory systems and how they are adapted to the environment: early vision evolved to maximise the information it conveys about incoming signals. Following Shannon's definition, this information was described using the probability of the images taken from natural scenes. Previously, direct accurate predictions of image probabilities were not possible due to computational limitations. Despite the exploration of this idea being indirect, mainly based on oversimplified models of the image density or on system design methods, these methods had success in reproducing a wide range of physiological and psychophysical phenomena. In this paper, we directly evaluate the probability of natural images and analyse how it may determine perceptual sensitivity. We employ image quality metrics that correlate well with human opinion as a surrogate of human vision, and an advanced generative model to directly estimate the probability. Specifically, we analyse how the sensitivity of full-reference image quality metrics can be predicted from quantities derived directly from the probability distribution of natural images. First, we compute the mutual information between a wide range of probability surrogates and the sensitivity of the metrics and find that the most influential factor is the probability of the noisy image. Then we explore how these probability surrogates can be combined using a simple model to predict the metric sensitivity, giving an upper bound for the correlation of 0.85 between the model predictions and the actual perceptual sensitivity. Finally, we explore how to combine the probability surrogates using simple expressions, and obtain two functional forms (using one or two surrogates) that can be used to predict the sensitivity of the human visual system given a particular pair of images.