Data-Driven Covariate Selection for Nonparametric and Cycle-Agnostic Causal Effect Estimation

Estimating causal effects from observational data requires identifying valid adjustment sets. This task is especially challenging in realistic settings where latent confounding and feedback loops are present. Existing approaches typically assume acyclicity or rely on global causal structure learning, limiting applicability and computational efficiency. In this work, we study a local, data-driven method for covariate selection based on conditional independence information. While this method is known to be sound and complete in acyclic causal models, its validity in the presence of cycles has remained unclear. Our main contribution is to show that these guarantees extend to cyclic causal models. In particular, our result relies on the invariance of conditional independence assertions under $σ$-acyclification. These findings establish a unified, cycle-agnostic perspective on covariate selection and causal effect estimation, showing that the method applies across cyclic and acyclic settings without modification. Empirically, we validate this on extensive synthetic data, showing reliable performance in cyclic causal models.

Sign Identifiability of Causal Effects in Stationary Stochastic Dynamical Systems

We study identifiability in continuous-time linear stationary stochastic differential equations with known causal structure. Unlike existing approaches, we relax the assumption of a known diffusion matrix, thereby respecting the model's intrinsic scale invariance. Rather than recovering drift coefficients themselves, we introduce edge-sign identifiability: for a given causal structure, we ask whether the sign of a given drift entry is uniquely determined across all observational covariance matrices induced by parametrizations compatible with that structure. Under a notion of faithfulness, we derive criteria for characterising identifiability, non-identifiability, and partial identifiability for general graphs. Applying our criteria to specific causal structures, both analogous to classical causal settings (e.g., instrumental variables) and novel cyclic settings, we determine their edge-sign identifiability and, in some cases, obtain explicit expressions for the sign of a target edge in terms of the observational covariance matrix.

Causal Effect Identification in Heterogeneous Environments from Higher-Order Moments

We investigate the estimation of the causal effect of a treatment variable on an outcome in the presence of a latent confounder. We first show that the causal effect is identifiable under certain conditions when data is available from multiple environments, provided that the target causal effect remains invariant across these environments. Secondly, we propose a moment-based algorithm for estimating the causal effect as long as only a single parameter of the data-generating mechanism varies across environments -- whether it be the exogenous noise distribution or the causal relationship between two variables. Conversely, we prove that identifiability is lost if both exogenous noise distributions of both the latent and treatment variables vary across environments. Finally, we propose a procedure to identify which parameter of the data-generating mechanism has varied across the environments and evaluate the performance of our proposed methods through experiments on synthetic data.

Causal Effect Identification in lvLiNGAM from Higher-Order Cumulants

This paper investigates causal effect identification in latent variable Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models (lvLiNGAM) using higher-order cumulants, addressing two prominent setups that are challenging in the presence of latent confounding: (1) a single proxy variable that may causally influence the treatment and (2) underspecified instrumental variable cases where fewer instruments exist than treatments. We prove that causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument and provide corresponding estimation methods. Experimental results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of our approaches compared to existing methods, advancing the theoretical and practical understanding of causal inference in linear systems with latent confounders.

Multi-Domain Causal Discovery in Bijective Causal Models

We consider the problem of causal discovery (a.k.a., causal structure learning) in a multi-domain setting. We assume that the causal functions are invariant across the domains, while the distribution of the exogenous noise may vary. Under causal sufficiency (i.e., no confounders exist), we show that the causal diagram can be discovered under less restrictive functional assumptions compared to previous work. What enables causal discovery in this setting is bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), which ensures that the functional relation between the exogenous noise $E$ and the endogenous variable $Y$ is bijective and differentiable in both directions at every level of the cause variable $X = x$. BGM generalizes a variety of models including additive noise model, LiNGAM, post-nonlinear model, and location-scale noise model. Further, we derive a statistical test to find the parents set of the target variable. Experiments on various synthetic and real-world datasets validate our theoretical findings.

ACTIVA: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation without Graphs via Transformer-based Variational Autoencoder

Predicting the distribution of outcomes under hypothetical interventions is crucial in domains like healthcare, economics, and policy-making. Current methods often rely on strong assumptions, such as known causal graphs or parametric models, and lack amortization across problem instances, limiting their practicality. We propose a novel transformer-based conditional variational autoencoder architecture, named ACTIVA, that extends causal transformer encoders to predict causal effects as mixtures of Gaussians. Our method requires no causal graph and predicts interventional distributions given only observational data and a queried intervention. By amortizing over many simulated instances, it enables zero-shot generalization to novel datasets without retraining. Experiments demonstrate accurate predictions for synthetic and semi-synthetic data, showcasing the effectiveness of our graph-free, amortized causal inference approach.

Complexity of Minimizing Projected-Gradient-Dominated Functions with Stochastic First-order Oracles

This work investigates the performance limits of projected stochastic first-order methods for minimizing functions under the $(\alpha,\tau,\mathcal{X})$-projected-gradient-dominance property, that asserts the sub-optimality gap $F(\mathbf{x})-\min_{\mathbf{x}'\in \mathcal{X}}F(\mathbf{x}')$ is upper-bounded by $\tau\cdot\|\mathcal{G}_{\eta,\mathcal{X}}(\mathbf{x})\|^{\alpha}$ for some $\alpha\in[1,2)$ and $\tau>0$ and $\mathcal{G}_{\eta,\mathcal{X}}(\mathbf{x})$ is the projected-gradient mapping with $\eta>0$ as a parameter. For non-convex functions, we show that the complexity lower bound of querying a batch smooth first-order stochastic oracle to obtain an $\epsilon$-global-optimum point is $\Omega(\epsilon^{-{2}/{\alpha}})$. Furthermore, we show that a projected variance-reduced first-order algorithm can obtain the upper complexity bound of $\mathcal{O}(\epsilon^{-{2}/{\alpha}})$, matching the lower bound. For convex functions, we establish a complexity lower bound of $\Omega(\log(1/\epsilon)\cdot\epsilon^{-{2}/{\alpha}})$ for minimizing functions under a local version of gradient-dominance property, which also matches the upper complexity bound of accelerated stochastic subgradient methods.

Causal Effect Identification in LiNGAM Models with Latent Confounders

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

Soft Preference Optimization: Aligning Language Models to Expert Distributions

We propose Soft Preference Optimization (SPO), a method for aligning generative models, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), with human preferences, without the need for a reward model. SPO optimizes model outputs directly over a preference dataset through a natural loss function that integrates preference loss with a regularization term across the model's entire output distribution rather than limiting it to the preference dataset. Although SPO does not require the assumption of an existing underlying reward model, we demonstrate that, under the Bradley-Terry (BT) model assumption, it converges to a softmax of scaled rewards, with the distribution's "softness" adjustable via the softmax exponent, an algorithm parameter. We showcase SPO's methodology, its theoretical foundation, and its comparative advantages in simplicity, computational efficiency, and alignment precision.

MetaOptimize: A Framework for Optimizing Step Sizes and Other Meta-parameters

This paper addresses the challenge of optimizing meta-parameters (i.e., hyperparameters) in machine learning algorithms, a critical factor influencing training efficiency and model performance. Moving away from the computationally expensive traditional meta-parameter search methods, we introduce MetaOptimize framework that dynamically adjusts meta-parameters, particularly step sizes (also known as learning rates), during training. More specifically, MetaOptimize can wrap around any first-order optimization algorithm, tuning step sizes on the fly to minimize a specific form of regret that accounts for long-term effect of step sizes on training, through a discounted sum of future losses. We also introduce low complexity variants of MetaOptimize that, in conjunction with its adaptability to multiple optimization algorithms, demonstrate performance competitive to those of best hand-crafted learning rate schedules across various machine learning applications.