Efficient Temporally-Aware DeepFake Detection using H.264 Motion Vectors

Video DeepFakes are fake media created with Deep Learning (DL) that manipulate a person's expression or identity. Most current DeepFake detection methods analyze each frame independently, ignoring inconsistencies and unnatural movements between frames. Some newer methods employ optical flow models to capture this temporal aspect, but they are computationally expensive. In contrast, we propose using the related but often ignored Motion Vectors (MVs) and Information Masks (IMs) from the H.264 video codec, to detect temporal inconsistencies in DeepFakes. Our experiments show that this approach is effective and has minimal computational costs, compared with per-frame RGB-only methods. This could lead to new, real-time temporally-aware DeepFake detection methods for video calls and streaming.

Deep Learning for Post-Processing Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts typically employs ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed trajectories run in parallel. These systems are associated with a high computational cost and often include statistical post-processing steps to inexpensively improve their raw prediction qualities. We propose a mixed prediction and post-processing model based on a subset of the original trajectories. In the model, we implement methods from deep learning to account for non-linear relationships that are not captured by current numerical models or other post-processing methods. Applied to global data, our mixed models achieve a relative improvement of the ensemble forecast skill of over 13%. We demonstrate that this is especially the case for extreme weather events on selected case studies, where we see an improvement in predictions by up to 26%. In addition, by using only half the trajectories, the computational costs of ensemble prediction systems can potentially be reduced, allowing weather forecasting pipelines to run higher resolution trajectories, and resulting in even more accurate raw ensemble forecasts.

Predicting Weather Uncertainty with Deep Convnets

Modern weather forecast models perform uncertainty quantification using ensemble prediction systems, which collect nonparametric statistics based on multiple perturbed simulations. To provide accurate estimation, dozens of such computationally intensive simulations must be run. We show that deep neural networks can be used on a small set of numerical weather simulations to estimate the spread of a weather forecast, significantly reducing computational cost. To train the system, we both modify the 3D U-Net architecture and explore models that incorporate temporal data. Our models serve as a starting point to improve uncertainty quantification in current real-time weather forecasting systems, which is vital for predicting extreme events.