Counterfactual Causal Inference in Natural Language with Large Language Models

Causal structure discovery methods are commonly applied to structured data where the causal variables are known and where statistical testing can be used to assess the causal relationships. By contrast, recovering a causal structure from unstructured natural language data such as news articles contains numerous challenges due to the absence of known variables or counterfactual data to estimate the causal links. Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promising results in this direction but also exhibit limitations. This work investigates LLM's abilities to build causal graphs from text documents and perform counterfactual causal inference. We propose an end-to-end causal structure discovery and causal inference method from natural language: we first use an LLM to extract the instantiated causal variables from text data and build a causal graph. We merge causal graphs from multiple data sources to represent the most exhaustive set of causes possible. We then conduct counterfactual inference on the estimated graph. The causal graph conditioning allows reduction of LLM biases and better represents the causal estimands. We use our method to show that the limitations of LLMs in counterfactual causal reasoning come from prediction errors and propose directions to mitigate them. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on real-world news articles.

Robust Domain Generalisation with Causal Invariant Bayesian Neural Networks

Deep neural networks can obtain impressive performance on various tasks under the assumption that their training domain is identical to their target domain. Performance can drop dramatically when this assumption does not hold. One explanation for this discrepancy is the presence of spurious domain-specific correlations in the training data that the network exploits. Causal mechanisms, in the other hand, can be made invariant under distribution changes as they allow disentangling the factors of distribution underlying the data generation. Yet, learning causal mechanisms to improve out-of-distribution generalisation remains an under-explored area. We propose a Bayesian neural architecture that disentangles the learning of the the data distribution from the inference process mechanisms. We show theoretically and experimentally that our model approximates reasoning under causal interventions. We demonstrate the performance of our method, outperforming point estimate-counterparts, on out-of-distribution image recognition tasks where the data distribution acts as strong adversarial confounders.

Neural Fourier Modelling: A Highly Compact Approach to Time-Series Analysis

Neural time-series analysis has traditionally focused on modeling data in the time domain, often with some approaches incorporating equivalent Fourier domain representations as auxiliary spectral features. In this work, we shift the main focus to frequency representations, modeling time-series data fully and directly in the Fourier domain. We introduce Neural Fourier Modelling (NFM), a compact yet powerful solution for time-series analysis. NFM is grounded in two key properties of the Fourier transform (FT): (i) the ability to model finite-length time series as functions in the Fourier domain, treating them as continuous-time elements in function space, and (ii) the capacity for data manipulation (such as resampling and timespan extension) within the Fourier domain. We reinterpret Fourier-domain data manipulation as frequency extrapolation and interpolation, incorporating this as a core learning mechanism in NFM, applicable across various tasks. To support flexible frequency extension with spectral priors and effective modulation of frequency representations, we propose two learning modules: Learnable Frequency Tokens (LFT) and Implicit Neural Fourier Filters (INFF). These modules enable compact and expressive modeling in the Fourier domain. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NFM achieves state-of-the-art performance on a wide range of tasks (forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification), including challenging time-series scenarios with previously unseen sampling rates at test time. Moreover, NFM is highly compact, requiring fewer than 40K parameters in each task, with time-series lengths ranging from 100 to 16K.

Transformers As Approximations of Solomonoff Induction

Solomonoff Induction is an optimal-in-the-limit unbounded algorithm for sequence prediction, representing a Bayesian mixture of every computable probability distribution and performing close to optimally in predicting any computable sequence. Being an optimal form of computational sequence prediction, it seems plausible that it may be used as a model against which other methods of sequence prediction might be compared. We put forth and explore the hypothesis that Transformer models - the basis of Large Language Models - approximate Solomonoff Induction better than any other extant sequence prediction method. We explore evidence for and against this hypothesis, give alternate hypotheses that take this evidence into account, and outline next steps for modelling Transformers and other kinds of AI in this way.

Using Large Language Models for the Interpretation of Building Regulations

Compliance checking is an essential part of a construction project. The recent rapid uptake of building information models (BIM) in the construction industry has created more opportunities for automated compliance checking (ACC). BIM enables sharing of digital building design data that can be used for compliance checking with legal requirements, which are conventionally conveyed in natural language and not intended for machine processing. Creating a computable representation of legal requirements suitable for ACC is complex, costly, and time-consuming. Large language models (LLMs) such as the generative pre-trained transformers (GPT), GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, powering OpenAI's ChatGPT, can generate logically coherent text and source code responding to user prompts. This capability could be used to automate the conversion of building regulations into a semantic and computable representation. This paper evaluates the performance of LLMs in translating building regulations into LegalRuleML in a few-shot learning setup. By providing GPT-3.5 with only a few example translations, it can learn the basic structure of the format. Using a system prompt, we further specify the LegalRuleML representation and explore the existence of expert domain knowledge in the model. Such domain knowledge might be ingrained in GPT-3.5 through the broad pre-training but needs to be brought forth by careful contextualisation. Finally, we investigate whether strategies such as chain-of-thought reasoning and self-consistency could apply to this use case. As LLMs become more sophisticated, the increased common sense, logical coherence, and means to domain adaptation can significantly support ACC, leading to more efficient and effective checking processes.

Recurrence over Video Frames for the Re-identification of Meerkats

Deep learning approaches for animal re-identification have had a major impact on conservation, significantly reducing the time required for many downstream tasks, such as well-being monitoring. We propose a method called Recurrence over Video Frames (RoVF), which uses a recurrent head based on the Perceiver architecture to iteratively construct an embedding from a video clip. RoVF is trained using triplet loss based on the co-occurrence of individuals in the video frames, where the individual IDs are unavailable. We tested this method and various models based on the DINOv2 transformer architecture on a dataset of meerkats collected at the Wellington Zoo. Our method achieves a top-1 re-identification accuracy of $49\%$, which is higher than that of the best DINOv2 model ($42\%$). We found that the model can match observations of individuals where humans cannot, and our model (RoVF) performs better than the comparisons with minimal fine-tuning. In future work, we plan to improve these models by using pre-text tasks, apply them to animal behaviour classification, and perform a hyperparameter search to optimise the models further.

Can Large Language Models Learn Independent Causal Mechanisms?

Despite impressive performance on language modelling and complex reasoning tasks, Large Language Models (LLMs) fall short on the same tasks in uncommon settings or with distribution shifts, exhibiting some lack of generalisation ability. This issue has usually been alleviated by feeding more training data into the LLM. However, this method is brittle, as the scope of tasks may not be readily predictable or may evolve, and updating the model with new data generally requires extensive additional training. By contrast, systems, such as causal models, that learn abstract variables and causal relationships can demonstrate increased robustness against changes in the distribution. One reason for this success is the existence and use of Independent Causal Mechanisms (ICMs) representing high-level concepts that only sparsely interact. In this work, we apply two concepts from causality to learn ICMs within LLMs. We develop a new LLM architecture composed of multiple sparsely interacting language modelling modules. We introduce a routing scheme to induce specialisation of the network into domain-specific modules. We also present a Mutual Information minimisation objective that trains a separate module to learn abstraction and domain-invariant mechanisms. We show that such causal constraints can improve out-of-distribution performance on abstract and causal reasoning tasks.

Behaviour Modelling of Social Animals via Causal Structure Discovery and Graph Neural Networks

Better understanding the natural world is a crucial task with a wide range of applications. In environments with close proximity between humans and animals, such as zoos, it is essential to better understand the causes behind animal behaviour and what interventions are responsible for changes in their behaviours. This can help to predict unusual behaviours, mitigate detrimental effects and increase the well-being of animals. There has been work on modelling the dynamics behind swarms of birds and insects but the complex social behaviours of mammalian groups remain less explored. In this work, we propose a method to build behavioural models using causal structure discovery and graph neural networks for time series. We apply this method to a mob of meerkats in a zoo environment and study its ability to predict future actions and model the behaviour distribution at an individual-level and at a group level. We show that our method can match and outperform standard deep learning architectures and generate more realistic data, while using fewer parameters and providing increased interpretability.

Do Smaller Language Models Answer Contextualised Questions Through Memorisation Or Generalisation?

A distinction is often drawn between a model's ability to predict a label for an evaluation sample that is directly memorised from highly similar training samples versus an ability to predict the label via some method of generalisation. In the context of using Language Models for question-answering, discussion continues to occur as to the extent to which questions are answered through memorisation. We consider this issue for questions that would ideally be answered through reasoning over an associated context. We propose a method of identifying evaluation samples for which it is very unlikely our model would have memorised the answers. Our method is based on semantic similarity of input tokens and label tokens between training and evaluation samples. We show that our method offers advantages upon some prior approaches in that it is able to surface evaluation-train pairs that have overlap in either contiguous or discontiguous sequences of tokens. We use this method to identify unmemorisable subsets of our evaluation datasets. We train two Language Models in a multitask fashion whereby the second model differs from the first only in that it has two additional datasets added to the training regime that are designed to impart simple numerical reasoning strategies of a sort known to improve performance on some of our evaluation datasets but not on others. We then show that there is performance improvement between the two models on the unmemorisable subsets of the evaluation datasets that were expected to benefit from the additional training datasets. Specifically, performance on unmemorisable subsets of two of our evaluation datasets, DROP and ROPES significantly improves by 9.0%, and 25.7% respectively while other evaluation datasets have no significant change in performance.

A Systematic Evaluation of Large Language Models on Out-of-Distribution Logical Reasoning Tasks

Large language models (LLMs), such as GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, have greatly advanced the performance of artificial systems on various natural language processing tasks to human-like levels. However, their generalisation and robustness to perform logical reasoning remain under-evaluated. To probe this ability, we propose three new logical reasoning datasets named "ReClor-plus", "LogiQA-plus" and "LogiQAv2-plus", each featuring three subsets: the first with randomly shuffled options, the second with the correct choices replaced by "none of the other options are correct", and a combination of the previous two subsets. We carry out experiments on these datasets with both discriminative and generative LLMs and show that these simple tricks greatly hinder the performance of the language models. Despite their superior performance on the original publicly available datasets, we find that all models struggle to answer our newly constructed datasets. We show that introducing task variations by perturbing a sizable training set can markedly improve the model's generalisation and robustness in logical reasoning tasks. Moreover, applying logic-driven data augmentation for fine-tuning, combined with prompting can enhance the generalisation performance of both discriminative large language models and generative large language models. These results offer insights into assessing and improving the generalisation and robustness of large language models for logical reasoning tasks. We make our source code and data publicly available \url{https://github.com/Strong-AI-Lab/Logical-and-abstract-reasoning}.