Neural machine translation for automated feedback on children's early-stage writing

In this work, we address the problem of assessing and constructing feedback for early-stage writing automatically using machine learning. Early-stage writing is typically vastly different from conventional writing due to phonetic spelling and lack of proper grammar, punctuation, spacing etc. Consequently, early-stage writing is highly non-trivial to analyze using common linguistic metrics. We propose to use sequence-to-sequence models for "translating" early-stage writing by students into "conventional" writing, which allows the translated text to be analyzed using linguistic metrics. Furthermore, we propose a novel robust likelihood to mitigate the effect of noise in the dataset. We investigate the proposed methods using a set of numerical experiments and demonstrate that the conventional text can be predicted with high accuracy.

Polygonizer: An auto-regressive building delineator

In geospatial planning, it is often essential to represent objects in a vectorized format, as this format easily translates to downstream tasks such as web development, graphics, or design. While these problems are frequently addressed using semantic segmentation, which requires additional post-processing to vectorize objects in a non-trivial way, we present an Image-to-Sequence model that allows for direct shape inference and is ready for vector-based workflows out of the box. We demonstrate the model's performance in various ways, including perturbations to the image input that correspond to variations or artifacts commonly encountered in remote sensing applications. Our model outperforms prior works when using ground truth bounding boxes (one object per image), achieving the lowest maximum tangent angle error.

Learning to Generate 3D Representations of Building Roofs Using Single-View Aerial Imagery

We present a novel pipeline for learning the conditional distribution of a building roof mesh given pixels from an aerial image, under the assumption that roof geometry follows a set of regular patterns. Unlike alternative methods that require multiple images of the same object, our approach enables estimating 3D roof meshes using only a single image for predictions. The approach employs the PolyGen, a deep generative transformer architecture for 3D meshes. We apply this model in a new domain and investigate the sensitivity of the image resolution. We propose a novel metric to evaluate the performance of the inferred meshes, and our results show that the model is robust even at lower resolutions, while qualitatively producing realistic representations for out-of-distribution samples.

On the role of Model Uncertainties in Bayesian Optimization

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for black-box optimization, which relies on uncertainty as part of its decision-making process when deciding which experiment to perform next. However, not much work has addressed the effect of uncertainty on the performance of the BO algorithm and to what extent calibrated uncertainties improve the ability to find the global optimum. In this work, we provide an extensive study of the relationship between the BO performance (regret) and uncertainty calibration for popular surrogate models and compare them across both synthetic and real-world experiments. Our results confirm that Gaussian Processes are strong surrogate models and that they tend to outperform other popular models. Our results further show a positive association between calibration error and regret, but interestingly, this association disappears when we control for the type of model in the analysis. We also studied the effect of re-calibration and demonstrate that it generally does not lead to improved regret. Finally, we provide theoretical justification for why uncertainty calibration might be difficult to combine with BO due to the small sample sizes commonly used.

SolarDK: A high-resolution urban solar panel image classification and localization dataset

The body of research on classification of solar panel arrays from aerial imagery is increasing, yet there are still not many public benchmark datasets. This paper introduces two novel benchmark datasets for classifying and localizing solar panel arrays in Denmark: A human annotated dataset for classification and segmentation, as well as a classification dataset acquired using self-reported data from the Danish national building registry. We explore the performance of prior works on the new benchmark dataset, and present results after fine-tuning models using a similar approach as recent works. Furthermore, we train models of newer architectures and provide benchmark baselines to our datasets in several scenarios. We believe the release of these datasets may improve future research in both local and global geospatial domains for identifying and mapping of solar panel arrays from aerial imagery. The data is accessible at https://osf.io/aj539/.

Robust, Automated, and Accurate Black-box Variational Inference

Black-box variational inference (BBVI) now sees widespread use in machine learning and statistics as a fast yet flexible alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, stochastic optimization methods for BBVI remain unreliable and require substantial expertise and hand-tuning to apply effectively. In this paper, we propose Robust, Automated, and Accurate BBVI (RAABBVI), a framework for reliable BBVI optimization. RAABBVI is based on rigorously justified automation techniques, includes just a small number of intuitive tuning parameters, and detects inaccurate estimates of the optimal variational approximation. RAABBVI adaptively decreases the learning rate by detecting convergence of the fixed--learning-rate iterates, then estimates the symmetrized Kullback--Leiber (KL) divergence between the current variational approximation and the optimal one. It also employs a novel optimization termination criterion that enables the user to balance desired accuracy against computational cost by comparing (i) the predicted relative decrease in the symmetrized KL divergence if a smaller learning were used and (ii) the predicted computation required to converge with the smaller learning rate. We validate the robustness and accuracy of RAABBVI through carefully designed simulation studies and on a diverse set of real-world model and data examples.

Challenges and Opportunities in High-dimensional Variational Inference

We explore the limitations of and best practices for using black-box variational inference to estimate posterior summaries of the model parameters. By taking an importance sampling perspective, we are able to explain and empirically demonstrate: 1) why the intuitions about the behavior of approximate families and divergences for low-dimensional posteriors fail for higher-dimensional posteriors, 2) how we can diagnose the pre-asymptotic reliability of variational inference in practice by examining the behavior of the density ratios (i.e., importance weights), 3) why the choice of variational objective is not as relevant for higher-dimensional posteriors, and 4) why, although flexible variational families can provide some benefits in higher dimensions, they also introduce additional optimization challenges. Based on these findings, for high-dimensional posteriors we recommend using the exclusive KL divergence that is most stable and easiest to optimize, and then focusing on improving the variational family or using model parameter transformations to make the posterior more similar to the approximating family. Our results also show that in low to moderate dimensions, heavy-tailed variational families and mass-covering divergences can increase the chances that the approximation can be improved by importance sampling.

Robust, Accurate Stochastic Optimization for Variational Inference

We consider the problem of fitting variational posterior approximations using stochastic optimization methods. The performance of these approximations depends on (1) how well the variational family matches the true posterior distribution,(2) the choice of divergence, and (3) the optimization of the variational objective. We show that even in the best-case scenario when the exact posterior belongs to the assumed variational family, common stochastic optimization methods lead to poor variational approximations if the problem dimension is moderately large. We also demonstrate that these methods are not robust across diverse model types. Motivated by these findings, we develop a more robust and accurate stochastic optimization framework by viewing the underlying optimization algorithm as producing a Markov chain. Our approach is theoretically motivated and includes a diagnostic for convergence and a novel stopping rule, both of which are robust to noisy evaluations of the objective function. We show empirically that the proposed framework works well on a diverse set of models: it can automatically detect stochastic optimization failure or inaccurate variational approximation

State Space Expectation Propagation: Efficient Inference Schemes for Temporal Gaussian Processes

We formulate approximate Bayesian inference in non-conjugate temporal and spatio-temporal Gaussian process models as a simple parameter update rule applied during Kalman smoothing. This viewpoint encompasses most inference schemes, including expectation propagation (EP), the classical (Extended, Unscented, etc.) Kalman smoothers, and variational inference. We provide a unifying perspective on these algorithms, showing how replacing the power EP moment matching step with linearisation recovers the classical smoothers. EP provides some benefits over the traditional methods via introduction of the so-called cavity distribution, and we combine these benefits with the computational efficiency of linearisation, providing extensive empirical analysis demonstrating the efficacy of various algorithms under this unifying framework. We provide a fast implementation of all methods in JAX.

Preferential Batch Bayesian Optimization

Most research in Bayesian optimization (BO) has focused on direct feedback scenarios, where one has access to exact, or perturbed, values of some expensive-to-evaluate objective. This direction has been mainly driven by the use of BO in machine learning hyper-parameter configuration problems. However, in domains such as modelling human preferences, A/B tests or recommender systems, there is a need of methods that are able to replace direct feedback with preferential feedback, obtained via rankings or pairwise comparisons. In this work, we present Preferential Batch Bayesian Optimization (PBBO), a new framework that allows to find the optimum of a latent function of interest, given any type of parallel preferential feedback for a group of two or more points. We do so by using a Gaussian process model with a likelihood specially designed to enable parallel and efficient data collection mechanisms, which are key in modern machine learning. We show how the acquisitions developed under this framework generalize and augment previous approaches in Bayesian optimization, expanding the use of these techniques to a wider range of domains. An extensive simulation study shows the benefits of this approach, both with simulated functions and four real data sets.