NovelCraft: A Dataset for Novelty Detection and Discovery in Open Worlds

In order for artificial agents to perform useful tasks in changing environments, they must be able to both detect and adapt to novelty. However, visual novelty detection research often only evaluates on repurposed datasets such as CIFAR-10 originally intended for object classification. This practice restricts novelties to well-framed images of distinct object types. We suggest that new benchmarks are needed to represent the challenges of navigating an open world. Our new NovelCraft dataset contains multi-modal episodic data of the images and symbolic world-states seen by an agent completing a pogo-stick assembly task within a video game world. In some episodes, we insert novel objects that can impact gameplay. Novelty can vary in size, position, and occlusion within complex scenes. We benchmark state-of-the-art novelty detection and generalized category discovery models with a focus on comprehensive evaluation. Results suggest an opportunity for future research: models aware of task-specific costs of different types of mistakes could more effectively detect and adapt to novelty in open worlds.

Easy Variational Inference for Categorical Models via an Independent Binary Approximation

We pursue tractable Bayesian analysis of generalized linear models (GLMs) for categorical data. Thus far, GLMs are difficult to scale to more than a few dozen categories due to non-conjugacy or strong posterior dependencies when using conjugate auxiliary variable methods. We define a new class of GLMs for categorical data called categorical-from-binary (CB) models. Each CB model has a likelihood that is bounded by the product of binary likelihoods, suggesting a natural posterior approximation. This approximation makes inference straightforward and fast; using well-known auxiliary variables for probit or logistic regression, the product of binary models admits conjugate closed-form variational inference that is embarrassingly parallel across categories and invariant to category ordering. Moreover, an independent binary model simultaneously approximates multiple CB models. Bayesian model averaging over these can improve the quality of the approximation for any given dataset. We show that our approach scales to thousands of categories, outperforming posterior estimation competitors like Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) and No U-Turn Sampling (NUTS) in the time required to achieve fixed prediction quality.

Dynamical Wasserstein Barycenters for Time-series Modeling

Many time series can be modeled as a sequence of segments representing high-level discrete states, such as running and walking in a human activity application. Flexible models should describe the system state and observations in stationary "pure-state" periods as well as transition periods between adjacent segments, such as a gradual slowdown between running and walking. However, most prior work assumes instantaneous transitions between pure discrete states. We propose a dynamical Wasserstein barycentric (DWB) model that estimates the system state over time as well as the data-generating distributions of pure states in an unsupervised manner. Our model assumes each pure state generates data from a multivariate normal distribution, and characterizes transitions between states via displacement-interpolation specified by the Wasserstein barycenter. The system state is represented by a barycentric weight vector which evolves over time via a random walk on the simplex. Parameter learning leverages the natural Riemannian geometry of Gaussian distributions under the Wasserstein distance, which leads to improved convergence speeds. Experiments on several human activity datasets show that our proposed DWB model accurately learns the generating distribution of pure states while improving state estimation for transition periods compared to the commonly used linear interpolation mixture models.

A New Semi-supervised Learning Benchmark for Classifying View and Diagnosing Aortic Stenosis from Echocardiograms

Semi-supervised image classification has shown substantial progress in learning from limited labeled data, but recent advances remain largely untested for clinical applications. Motivated by the urgent need to improve timely diagnosis of life-threatening heart conditions, especially aortic stenosis, we develop a benchmark dataset to assess semi-supervised approaches to two tasks relevant to cardiac ultrasound (echocardiogram) interpretation: view classification and disease severity classification. We find that a state-of-the-art method called MixMatch achieves promising gains in heldout accuracy on both tasks, learning from a large volume of truly unlabeled images as well as a labeled set collected at great expense to achieve better performance than is possible with the labeled set alone. We further pursue patient-level diagnosis prediction, which requires aggregating across hundreds of images of diverse view types, most of which are irrelevant, to make a coherent prediction. The best patient-level performance is achieved by new methods that prioritize diagnosis predictions from images that are predicted to be clinically-relevant views and transfer knowledge from the view task to the diagnosis task. We hope our released Tufts Medical Echocardiogram Dataset and evaluation framework inspire further improvements in multi-task semi-supervised learning for clinical applications.

Evaluating the Use of Reconstruction Error for Novelty Localization

The pixelwise reconstruction error of deep autoencoders is often utilized for image novelty detection and localization under the assumption that pixels with high error indicate which parts of the input image are unfamiliar and therefore likely to be novel. This assumed correlation between pixels with high reconstruction error and novel regions of input images has not been verified and may limit the accuracy of these methods. In this paper we utilize saliency maps to evaluate whether this correlation exists. Saliency maps reveal directly how much a change in each input pixel would affect reconstruction loss, while each pixel's reconstruction error may be attributed to many input pixels when layers are fully connected. We compare saliency maps to reconstruction error maps via qualitative visualizations as well as quantitative correspondence between the top K elements of the maps for both novel and normal images. Our results indicate that reconstruction error maps do not closely correlate with the importance of pixels in the input images, making them insufficient for novelty localization.

Stochastic Iterative Graph Matching

Recent works leveraging Graph Neural Networks to approach graph matching tasks have shown promising results. Recent progress in learning discrete distributions poses new opportunities for learning graph matching models. In this work, we propose a new model, Stochastic Iterative Graph MAtching (SIGMA), to address the graph matching problem. Our model defines a distribution of matchings for a graph pair so the model can explore a wide range of possible matchings. We further introduce a novel multi-step matching procedure, which learns how to refine a graph pair's matching results incrementally. The model also includes dummy nodes so that the model does not have to find matchings for nodes without correspondence. We fit this model to data via scalable stochastic optimization. We conduct extensive experiments across synthetic graph datasets as well as biochemistry and computer vision applications. Across all tasks, our results show that SIGMA can produce significantly improved graph matching results compared to state-of-the-art models. Ablation studies verify that each of our components (stochastic training, iterative matching, and dummy nodes) offers noticeable improvement.

Approximate Bayesian Computation for an Explicit-Duration Hidden Markov Model of COVID-19 Hospital Trajectories

We address the problem of modeling constrained hospital resources in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic in order to inform decision-makers of future demand and assess the societal value of possible interventions. For broad applicability, we focus on the common yet challenging scenario where patient-level data for a region of interest are not available. Instead, given daily admissions counts, we model aggregated counts of observed resource use, such as the number of patients in the general ward, in the intensive care unit, or on a ventilator. In order to explain how individual patient trajectories produce these counts, we propose an aggregate count explicit-duration hidden Markov model, nicknamed the ACED-HMM, with an interpretable, compact parameterization. We develop an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach that draws samples from the posterior distribution over the model's transition and duration parameters given aggregate counts from a specific location, thus adapting the model to a region or individual hospital site of interest. Samples from this posterior can then be used to produce future forecasts of any counts of interest. Using data from the United States and the United Kingdom, we show our mechanistic approach provides competitive probabilistic forecasts for the future even as the dynamics of the pandemic shift. Furthermore, we show how our model provides insight about recovery probabilities or length of stay distributions, and we suggest its potential to answer challenging what-if questions about the societal value of possible interventions.

Modeling Graph Node Correlations with Neighbor Mixture Models

We propose a new model, the Neighbor Mixture Model (NMM), for modeling node labels in a graph. This model aims to capture correlations between the labels of nodes in a local neighborhood. We carefully design the model so it could be an alternative to a Markov Random Field but with more affordable computations. In particular, drawing samples and evaluating marginal probabilities of single labels can be done in linear time. To scale computations to large graphs, we devise a variational approximation without introducing extra parameters. We further use graph neural networks (GNNs) to parameterize the NMM, which reduces the number of learnable parameters while allowing expressive representation learning. The proposed model can be either fit directly to large observed graphs or used to enable scalable inference that preserves correlations for other distributions such as deep generative graph models. Across a diverse set of node classification, image denoising, and link prediction tasks, we show our proposed NMM advances the state-of-the-art in modeling real-world labeled graphs.

Forecasting COVID-19 Counts At A Single Hospital: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

We consider the problem of forecasting the daily number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a single hospital site, in order to help administrators with logistics and planning. We develop several candidate hierarchical Bayesian models which directly capture the count nature of data via a generalized Poisson likelihood, model time-series dependencies via autoregressive and Gaussian process latent processes, and share statistical strength across related sites. We demonstrate our approach on public datasets for 8 hospitals in Massachusetts, U.S.A. and 10 hospitals in the United Kingdom. Further prospective evaluation compares our approach favorably to baselines currently used by stakeholders at 3 related hospitals to forecast 2-week-ahead demand by rescaling state-level forecasts.