Optimal kernel regression bounds under energy-bounded noise

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are key for both assessing an estimation algorithm's accuracy and in view of downstream tasks, such as its deployment in safety-critical contexts. In this paper, we derive a tight, non-asymptotic uncertainty bound for kernel-based estimation, which can also handle correlated noise sequences. Its computation relies on a mild norm-boundedness assumption on the unknown function and the noise, returning the worst-case function realization within the hypothesis class at an arbitrary query input location. The value of this function is shown to be given in terms of the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian process for an optimal choice of the measurement noise covariance. By rigorously analyzing the proposed approach and comparing it with other results in the literature, we show its effectiveness in returning tight and easy-to-compute bounds for kernel-based estimates.

Finite-Sample-Based Reachability for Safe Control with Gaussian Process Dynamics

Gaussian Process (GP) regression is shown to be effective for learning unknown dynamics, enabling efficient and safety-aware control strategies across diverse applications. However, existing GP-based model predictive control (GP-MPC) methods either rely on approximations, thus lacking guarantees, or are overly conservative, which limits their practical utility. To close this gap, we present a sampling-based framework that efficiently propagates the model's epistemic uncertainty while avoiding conservatism. We establish a novel sample complexity result that enables the construction of a reachable set using a finite number of dynamics functions sampled from the GP posterior. Building on this, we design a sampling-based GP-MPC scheme that is recursively feasible and guarantees closed-loop safety and stability with high probability. Finally, we showcase the effectiveness of our method on two numerical examples, highlighting accurate reachable set over-approximation and safe closed-loop performance.

Performance-driven Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC

A key challenge in tuning Model Predictive Control (MPC) cost function parameters is to ensure that the system performance stays consistently above a certain threshold. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method, COAT-MPC, Constrained Optimal Auto-Tuner for MPC. With every tuning iteration, COAT-MPC gathers performance data and learns by updating its posterior belief. It explores the tuning parameters' domain towards optimistic parameters in a goal-directed fashion, which is key to its sample efficiency. We theoretically analyze COAT-MPC, showing that it satisfies performance constraints with arbitrarily high probability at all times and provably converges to the optimum performance within finite time. Through comprehensive simulations and comparative analyses with a hardware platform, we demonstrate the effectiveness of COAT-MPC in comparison to classical Bayesian Optimization (BO) and other state-of-the-art methods. When applied to autonomous racing, our approach outperforms baselines in terms of constraint violations and cumulative regret over time.

Moving Horizon Estimation for Simultaneous Localization and Mapping with Robust Estimation Error Bounds

This paper presents a robust moving horizon estimation (MHE) approach with provable estimation error bounds for solving the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) problem. We derive sufficient conditions to guarantee robust stability in ego-state estimates and bounded errors in landmark position estimates, even under limited landmark visibility which directly affects overall system detectability. This is achieved by decoupling the MHE updates for the ego-state and landmark positions, enabling individual landmark updates only when the required detectability conditions are met. The decoupled MHE structure also allows for parallelization of landmark updates, improving computational efficiency. We discuss the key assumptions, including ego-state detectability and Lipschitz continuity of the landmark measurement model, with respect to typical SLAM sensor configurations, and introduce a streamlined method for the range measurement model. Simulation results validate the considered method, highlighting its efficacy and robustness to noise.

Lambda-Skip Connections: the architectural component that prevents Rank Collapse

Rank collapse, a phenomenon where embedding vectors in sequence models rapidly converge to a uniform token or equilibrium state, has recently gained attention in the deep learning literature. This phenomenon leads to reduced expressivity and potential training instabilities due to vanishing gradients. Empirical evidence suggests that architectural components like skip connections, LayerNorm, and MultiLayer Perceptrons (MLPs) play critical roles in mitigating rank collapse. While this issue is well-documented for transformers, alternative sequence models, such as State Space Models (SSMs), which have recently gained prominence, have not been thoroughly examined for similar vulnerabilities. This paper extends the theory of rank collapse from transformers to SSMs using a unifying framework that captures both architectures. We study how a parametrized version of the classic skip connection component, which we call \emph{lambda-skip connections}, provides guarantees for rank collapse prevention. Through analytical results, we present a sufficient condition to guarantee prevention of rank collapse across all the aforementioned architectures. We also study the necessity of this condition via ablation studies and analytical examples. To our knowledge, this is the first study that provides a general guarantee to prevent rank collapse, and that investigates rank collapse in the context of SSMs, offering valuable understanding for both theoreticians and practitioners. Finally, we validate our findings with experiments demonstrating the crucial role of architectural components such as skip connections and gating mechanisms in preventing rank collapse.

Towards safe and tractable Gaussian process-based MPC: Efficient sampling within a sequential quadratic programming framework

Learning uncertain dynamics models using Gaussian process~(GP) regression has been demonstrated to enable high-performance and safety-aware control strategies for challenging real-world applications. Yet, for computational tractability, most approaches for Gaussian process-based model predictive control (GP-MPC) are based on approximations of the reachable set that are either overly conservative or impede the controller's safety guarantees. To address these challenges, we propose a robust GP-MPC formulation that guarantees constraint satisfaction with high probability. For its tractable implementation, we propose a sampling-based GP-MPC approach that iteratively generates consistent dynamics samples from the GP within a sequential quadratic programming framework. We highlight the improved reachable set approximation compared to existing methods, as well as real-time feasible computation times, using two numerical examples.

Understanding the differences in Foundation Models: Attention, State Space Models, and Recurrent Neural Networks

Softmax attention is the principle backbone of foundation models for various artificial intelligence applications, yet its quadratic complexity in sequence length can limit its inference throughput in long-context settings. To address this challenge, alternative architectures such as linear attention, State Space Models (SSMs), and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have been considered as more efficient alternatives. While connections between these approaches exist, such models are commonly developed in isolation and there is a lack of theoretical understanding of the shared principles underpinning these architectures and their subtle differences, greatly influencing performance and scalability. In this paper, we introduce the Dynamical Systems Framework (DSF), which allows a principled investigation of all these architectures in a common representation. Our framework facilitates rigorous comparisons, providing new insights on the distinctive characteristics of each model class. For instance, we compare linear attention and selective SSMs, detailing their differences and conditions under which both are equivalent. We also provide principled comparisons between softmax attention and other model classes, discussing the theoretical conditions under which softmax attention can be approximated. Additionally, we substantiate these new insights with empirical validations and mathematical arguments. This shows the DSF's potential to guide the systematic development of future more efficient and scalable foundation models.

Optimization-Based System Identification and Moving Horizon Estimation Using Low-Cost Sensors for a Miniature Car-Like Robot

This paper presents an open-source miniature car-like robot with low-cost sensing and a pipeline for optimization-based system identification, state estimation, and control. The overall robotics platform comes at a cost of less than $700 and thus significantly simplifies the verification of advanced algorithms in a realistic setting. We present a modified bicycle model with Pacejka tire forces to model the dynamics of the considered all-wheel drive vehicle and to prevent singularities of the model at low velocities. Furthermore, we provide an optimization-based system identification approach and a moving horizon estimation (MHE) scheme. In extensive hardware experiments, we show that the presented system identification approach results in a model with high prediction accuracy, while the MHE results in accurate state estimates. Finally, the overall closed-loop system is shown to perform well even in the presence of sensor failure for limited time intervals. All hardware, firmware, and control and estimation software is released under a BSD 2-clause license to promote widespread adoption and collaboration within the community.

Perfecting Periodic Trajectory Tracking: Model Predictive Control with a Periodic Observer ($Π$-MPC)

In Model Predictive Control (MPC), discrepancies between the actual system and the predictive model can lead to substantial tracking errors and significantly degrade performance and reliability. While such discrepancies can be alleviated with more complex models, this often complicates controller design and implementation. By leveraging the fact that many trajectories of interest are periodic, we show that perfect tracking is possible when incorporating a simple observer that estimates and compensates for periodic disturbances. We present the design of the observer and the accompanying tracking MPC scheme, proving that their combination achieves zero tracking error asymptotically, regardless of the complexity of the unmodelled dynamics. We validate the effectiveness of our method, demonstrating asymptotically perfect tracking on a high-dimensional soft robot with nearly 10,000 states and a fivefold reduction in tracking errors compared to a baseline MPC on small-scale autonomous race car experiments.

State Space Models as Foundation Models: A Control Theoretic Overview

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in integrating linear state-space models (SSM) in deep neural network architectures of foundation models. This is exemplified by the recent success of Mamba, showing better performance than the state-of-the-art Transformer architectures in language tasks. Foundation models, like e.g. GPT-4, aim to encode sequential data into a latent space in order to learn a compressed representation of the data. The same goal has been pursued by control theorists using SSMs to efficiently model dynamical systems. Therefore, SSMs can be naturally connected to deep sequence modeling, offering the opportunity to create synergies between the corresponding research areas. This paper is intended as a gentle introduction to SSM-based architectures for control theorists and summarizes the latest research developments. It provides a systematic review of the most successful SSM proposals and highlights their main features from a control theoretic perspective. Additionally, we present a comparative analysis of these models, evaluating their performance on a standardized benchmark designed for assessing a model's efficiency at learning long sequences.