Optimal uncertainty bounds for multivariate kernel regression under bounded noise: A Gaussian process-based dual function

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are essential for making reliable predictions about latent functions from noisy data--and thus, a key enabler for safe learning-based control. In this domain, kernel methods such as Gaussian process regression are established techniques, thanks to their inherent uncertainty quantification mechanism. Still, existing bounds either pose strong assumptions on the underlying noise distribution, are conservative, do not scale well in the multi-output case, or are difficult to integrate into downstream tasks. This paper addresses these limitations by presenting a tight, distribution-free bound for multi-output kernel-based estimates. It is obtained through an unconstrained, duality-based formulation, which shares the same structure of classic Gaussian process confidence bounds and can thus be straightforwardly integrated into downstream optimization pipelines. We show that the proposed bound generalizes many existing results and illustrate its application using an example inspired by quadrotor dynamics learning.

Optimal kernel regression bounds under energy-bounded noise

Non-conservative uncertainty bounds are key for both assessing an estimation algorithm's accuracy and in view of downstream tasks, such as its deployment in safety-critical contexts. In this paper, we derive a tight, non-asymptotic uncertainty bound for kernel-based estimation, which can also handle correlated noise sequences. Its computation relies on a mild norm-boundedness assumption on the unknown function and the noise, returning the worst-case function realization within the hypothesis class at an arbitrary query input location. The value of this function is shown to be given in terms of the posterior mean and covariance of a Gaussian process for an optimal choice of the measurement noise covariance. By rigorously analyzing the proposed approach and comparing it with other results in the literature, we show its effectiveness in returning tight and easy-to-compute bounds for kernel-based estimates.

Bayesian Multi-Task Learning MPC for Robotic Mobile Manipulation

Mobile manipulation in robotics is challenging due to the need of solving many diverse tasks, such as opening a door or picking-and-placing an object. Typically, a basic first-principles system description of the robot is available, thus motivating the use of model-based controllers. However, the robot dynamics and its interaction with an object are affected by uncertainty, limiting the controller's performance. To tackle this problem, we propose a Bayesian multi-task learning model that uses trigonometric basis functions to identify the error in the dynamics. In this way, data from different but related tasks can be leveraged to provide a descriptive error model that can be efficiently updated online for new, unseen tasks. We combine this learning scheme with a model predictive controller, and extensively test the effectiveness of the proposed approach, including comparisons with available baseline controllers. We present simulation tests with a ball-balancing robot, and door-opening hardware experiments with a quadrupedal manipulator.