Is Temporal Difference Learning Optimal? An Instance-Dependent Analysis

We address the problem of policy evaluation in discounted Markov decision processes, and provide instance-dependent guarantees on the $\ell_\infty$-error under a generative model. We establish both asymptotic and non-asymptotic versions of local minimax lower bounds for policy evaluation, thereby providing an instance-dependent baseline by which to compare algorithms. Theory-inspired simulations show that the widely-used temporal difference (TD) algorithm is strictly suboptimal when evaluated in a non-asymptotic setting, even when combined with Polyak-Ruppert iterate averaging. We remedy this issue by introducing and analyzing variance-reduced forms of stochastic approximation, showing that they achieve non-asymptotic, instance-dependent optimality up to logarithmic factors.

Sampling for Bayesian Mixture Models: MCMC with Polynomial-Time Mixing

We study the problem of sampling from the power posterior distribution in Bayesian Gaussian mixture models, a robust version of the classical posterior. This power posterior is known to be non-log-concave and multi-modal, which leads to exponential mixing times for some standard MCMC algorithms. We introduce and study the Reflected Metropolis-Hastings Random Walk (RMRW) algorithm for sampling. For symmetric two-component Gaussian mixtures, we prove that its mixing time is bounded as $d^{1.5}(d + \Vert \theta_{0} \Vert^2)^{4.5}$ as long as the sample size $n$ is of the order $d (d + \Vert \theta_{0} \Vert^2)$. Notably, this result requires no conditions on the separation of the two means. En route to proving this bound, we establish some new results of possible independent interest that allow for combining Poincar\'{e} inequalities for conditional and marginal densities.

An Efficient Sampling Algorithm for Non-smooth Composite Potentials

We consider the problem of sampling from a density of the form $p(x) \propto \exp(-f(x)- g(x))$, where $f: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a smooth and strongly convex function and $g: \mathbb{R}^d \rightarrow \mathbb{R}$ is a convex and Lipschitz function. We propose a new algorithm based on the Metropolis-Hastings framework, and prove that it mixes to within TV distance $\varepsilon$ of the target density in at most $O(d \log (d/\varepsilon))$ iterations. This guarantee extends previous results on sampling from distributions with smooth log densities ($g = 0$) to the more general composite non-smooth case, with the same mixing time up to a multiple of the condition number. Our method is based on a novel proximal-based proposal distribution that can be efficiently computed for a large class of non-smooth functions $g$.

Value function estimation in Markov reward processes: Instance-dependent $\ell_\infty$-bounds for policy evaluation

Markov reward processes (MRPs) are used to model stochastic phenomena arising in operations research, control engineering, robotics, artificial intelligence, as well as communication and transportation networks. In many of these cases, such as in the policy evaluation problem encountered in reinforcement learning, the goal is to estimate the long-term value function of such a process without access to the underlying population transition and reward functions. Working with samples generated under the synchronous model, we study the problem of estimating the value function of an infinite-horizon, discounted MRP in the $\ell_\infty$-norm. We analyze both the standard plug-in approach to this problem and a more robust variant, and establish non-asymptotic bounds that depend on the (unknown) problem instance, as well as data-dependent bounds that can be evaluated based on the observed data. We show that these approaches are minimax-optimal up to constant factors over natural sub-classes of MRPs. Our analysis makes use of a leave-one-out decoupling argument tailored to the policy evaluation problem, one which may be of independent interest.

High-Order Langevin Diffusion Yields an Accelerated MCMC Algorithm

We propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm based on third-order Langevin dynamics for sampling from distributions with log-concave and smooth densities. The higher-order dynamics allow for more flexible discretization schemes, and we develop a specific method that combines splitting with more accurate integration. For a broad class of $d$-dimensional distributions arising from generalized linear models, we prove that the resulting third-order algorithm produces samples from a distribution that is at most $\varepsilon > 0$ in Wasserstein distance from the target distribution in $O\left(\frac{d^{1/3}}{ \varepsilon^{2/3}} \right)$ steps. This result requires only Lipschitz conditions on the gradient. For general strongly convex potentials with $\alpha$-th order smoothness, we prove that the mixing time scales as $O \left(\frac{d^{1/3}}{\varepsilon^{2/3}} + \frac{d^{1/2}}{\varepsilon^{1/(\alpha - 1)}} \right)$.

Improved Bounds for Discretization of Langevin Diffusions: Near-Optimal Rates without Convexity

We present an improved analysis of the Euler-Maruyama discretization of the Langevin diffusion. Our analysis does not require global contractivity, and yields polynomial dependence on the time horizon. Compared to existing approaches, we make an additional smoothness assumption, and improve the existing rate from $O(\eta)$ to $O(\eta^2)$ in terms of the KL divergence. This result matches the correct order for numerical SDEs, without suffering from exponential time dependence. When applied to algorithms for sampling and learning, this result simultaneously improves all those methods based on Dalayan's approach.

Variance-reduced $Q$-learning is minimax optimal

We introduce and analyze a form of variance-reduced $Q$-learning. For $\gamma$-discounted MDPs with finite state space $\mathcal{X}$ and action space $\mathcal{U}$, we prove that it yields an $\epsilon$-accurate estimate of the optimal $Q$-function in the $\ell_\infty$-norm using $\mathcal{O} \left(\left(\frac{D}{ \epsilon^2 (1-\gamma)^3} \right) \; \log \left( \frac{D}{(1-\gamma)} \right) \right)$ samples, where $D = |\mathcal{X}| \times |\mathcal{U}|$. This guarantee matches known minimax lower bounds up to a logarithmic factor in the discount complexity, and is the first form of model-free $Q$-learning proven to achieve the worst-case optimal cubic scaling in the discount complexity parameter $1/(1-\gamma)$ accompanied by optimal linear scaling in the state and action space sizes. By contrast, our past work shows that ordinary $Q$-learning has worst-case quartic scaling in the discount complexity.

Fast mixing of Metropolized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo: Benefits of multi-step gradients

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a state-of-the-art Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm for drawing samples from smooth probability densities over continuous spaces. We study the variant most widely used in practice, Metropolized HMC with the St\"{o}rmer-Verlet or leapfrog integrator, and make two primary contributions. First, we provide a non-asymptotic upper bound on the mixing time of the Metropolized HMC with explicit choices of stepsize and number of leapfrog steps. This bound gives a precise quantification of the faster convergence of Metropolized HMC relative to simpler MCMC algorithms such as the Metropolized random walk, or Metropolized Langevin algorithm. Second, we provide a general framework for sharpening mixing time bounds Markov chains initialized at a substantial distance from the target distribution over continuous spaces. We apply this sharpening device to the Metropolized random walk and Langevin algorithms, thereby obtaining improved mixing time bounds from a non-warm initial distribution.

Stochastic approximation with cone-contractive operators: Sharp $\ell_\infty$-bounds for $Q$-learning

Motivated by the study of $Q$-learning algorithms in reinforcement learning, we study a class of stochastic approximation procedures based on operators that satisfy monotonicity and quasi-contractivity conditions with respect to an underlying cone. We prove a general sandwich relation on the iterate error at each time, and use it to derive non-asymptotic bounds on the error in terms of a cone-induced gauge norm. These results are derived within a deterministic framework, requiring no assumptions on the noise. We illustrate these general bounds in application to synchronous $Q$-learning for discounted Markov decision processes with discrete state-action spaces, in particular by deriving non-asymptotic bounds on the $\ell_\infty$-norm for a range of stepsizes. These results are the sharpest known to date, and we show via simulation that the dependence of our bounds cannot be improved in a worst-case sense. These results show that relative to a model-based $Q$-iteration, the $\ell_\infty$-based sample complexity of $Q$-learning is suboptimal in terms of the discount factor $\gamma$.

Challenges with EM in application to weakly identifiable mixture models

We study a class of weakly identifiable location-scale mixture models for which the maximum likelihood estimates based on $n$ i.i.d. samples are known to have lower accuracy than the classical $n^{- \frac{1}{2}}$ error. We investigate whether the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm also converges slowly for these models. We first demonstrate via simulation studies a broad range of over-specified mixture models for which the EM algorithm converges very slowly, both in one and higher dimensions. We provide a complete analytical characterization of this behavior for fitting data generated from a multivariate standard normal distribution using two-component Gaussian mixture with varying location and scale parameters. Our results reveal distinct regimes in the convergence behavior of EM as a function of the dimension $d$. In the multivariate setting ($d \geq 2$), when the covariance matrix is constrained to a multiple of the identity matrix, the EM algorithm converges in order $(n/d)^{\frac{1}{2}}$ steps and returns estimates that are at a Euclidean distance of order ${(n/d)^{-\frac{1}{4}}}$ and ${ (n d)^{- \frac{1}{2}}}$ from the true location and scale parameter respectively. On the other hand, in the univariate setting ($d = 1$), the EM algorithm converges in order $n^{\frac{3}{4} }$ steps and returns estimates that are at a Euclidean distance of order ${ n^{- \frac{1}{8}}}$ and ${ n^{-\frac{1} {4}}}$ from the true location and scale parameter respectively. Establishing the slow rates in the univariate setting requires a novel localization argument with two stages, with each stage involving an epoch-based argument applied to a different surrogate EM operator at the population level. We also show multivariate ($d \geq 2$) examples, involving more general covariance matrices, that exhibit the same slow rates as the univariate case.