Early stopping and non-parametric regression: An optimal data-dependent stopping rule

The strategy of early stopping is a regularization technique based on choosing a stopping time for an iterative algorithm. Focusing on non-parametric regression in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we analyze the early stopping strategy for a form of gradient-descent applied to the least-squares loss function. We propose a data-dependent stopping rule that does not involve hold-out or cross-validation data, and we prove upper bounds on the squared error of the resulting function estimate, measured in either the $L^2(P)$ and $L^2(P_n)$ norm. These upper bounds lead to minimax-optimal rates for various kernel classes, including Sobolev smoothness classes and other forms of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. We show through simulation that our stopping rule compares favorably to two other stopping rules, one based on hold-out data and the other based on Stein's unbiased risk estimate. We also establish a tight connection between our early stopping strategy and the solution path of a kernel ridge regression estimator.

Sampled forms of functional PCA in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces

We consider the sampling problem for functional PCA (fPCA), where the simplest example is the case of taking time samples of the underlying functional components. More generally, we model the sampling operation as a continuous linear map from $\mathcal{H}$ to $\mathbb{R}^m$, where the functional components to lie in some Hilbert subspace $\mathcal{H}$ of $L^2$, such as a reproducing kernel Hilbert space of smooth functions. This model includes time and frequency sampling as special cases. In contrast to classical approach in fPCA in which access to entire functions is assumed, having a limited number m of functional samples places limitations on the performance of statistical procedures. We study these effects by analyzing the rate of convergence of an M-estimator for the subspace spanned by the leading components in a multi-spiked covariance model. The estimator takes the form of regularized PCA, and hence is computationally attractive. We analyze the behavior of this estimator within a nonasymptotic framework, and provide bounds that hold with high probability as a function of the number of statistical samples n and the number of functional samples m. We also derive lower bounds showing that the rates obtained are minimax optimal.

Belief Propagation for Continuous State Spaces: Stochastic Message-Passing with Quantitative Guarantees

The sum-product or belief propagation (BP) algorithm is a widely used message-passing technique for computing approximate marginals in graphical models. We introduce a new technique, called stochastic orthogonal series message-passing (SOSMP), for computing the BP fixed point in models with continuous random variables. It is based on a deterministic approximation of the messages via orthogonal series expansion, and a stochastic approximation via Monte Carlo estimates of the integral updates of the basis coefficients. We prove that the SOSMP iterates converge to a \delta-neighborhood of the unique BP fixed point for any tree-structured graph, and for any graphs with cycles in which the BP updates satisfy a contractivity condition. In addition, we demonstrate how to choose the number of basis coefficients as a function of the desired approximation accuracy \delta and smoothness of the compatibility functions. We illustrate our theory with both simulated examples and in application to optical flow estimation.

Discussion: Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization

Discussion of "Latent variable graphical model selection via convex optimization" by Venkat Chandrasekaran, Pablo A. Parrilo and Alan S. Willsky [arXiv:1008.1290].

High-dimensional regression with noisy and missing data: Provable guarantees with nonconvexity

Although the standard formulations of prediction problems involve fully-observed and noiseless data drawn in an i.i.d. manner, many applications involve noisy and/or missing data, possibly involving dependence, as well. We study these issues in the context of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, and propose novel estimators for the cases of noisy, missing and/or dependent data. Many standard approaches to noisy or missing data, such as those using the EM algorithm, lead to optimization problems that are inherently nonconvex, and it is difficult to establish theoretical guarantees on practical algorithms. While our approach also involves optimizing nonconvex programs, we are able to both analyze the statistical error associated with any global optimum, and more surprisingly, to prove that a simple algorithm based on projected gradient descent will converge in polynomial time to a small neighborhood of the set of all global minimizers. On the statistical side, we provide nonasymptotic bounds that hold with high probability for the cases of noisy, missing and/or dependent data. On the computational side, we prove that under the same types of conditions required for statistical consistency, the projected gradient descent algorithm is guaranteed to converge at a geometric rate to a near-global minimizer. We illustrate these theoretical predictions with simulations, showing close agreement with the predicted scalings.

Fast global convergence of gradient methods for high-dimensional statistical recovery

Many statistical $M$-estimators are based on convex optimization problems formed by the combination of a data-dependent loss function with a norm-based regularizer. We analyze the convergence rates of projected gradient and composite gradient methods for solving such problems, working within a high-dimensional framework that allows the data dimension $\pdim$ to grow with (and possibly exceed) the sample size $\numobs$. This high-dimensional structure precludes the usual global assumptions---namely, strong convexity and smoothness conditions---that underlie much of classical optimization analysis. We define appropriately restricted versions of these conditions, and show that they are satisfied with high probability for various statistical models. Under these conditions, our theory guarantees that projected gradient descent has a globally geometric rate of convergence up to the \emph{statistical precision} of the model, meaning the typical distance between the true unknown parameter $\theta^*$ and an optimal solution $\hat{\theta}$. This result is substantially sharper than previous convergence results, which yielded sublinear convergence, or linear convergence only up to the noise level. Our analysis applies to a wide range of $M$-estimators and statistical models, including sparse linear regression using Lasso ($\ell_1$-regularized regression); group Lasso for block sparsity; log-linear models with regularization; low-rank matrix recovery using nuclear norm regularization; and matrix decomposition. Overall, our analysis reveals interesting connections between statistical precision and computational efficiency in high-dimensional estimation.

Stochastic optimization and sparse statistical recovery: An optimal algorithm for high dimensions

We develop and analyze stochastic optimization algorithms for problems in which the expected loss is strongly convex, and the optimum is (approximately) sparse. Previous approaches are able to exploit only one of these two structures, yielding an $\order(\pdim/T)$ convergence rate for strongly convex objectives in $\pdim$ dimensions, and an $\order(\sqrt{(\spindex \log \pdim)/T})$ convergence rate when the optimum is $\spindex$-sparse. Our algorithm is based on successively solving a series of $\ell_1$-regularized optimization problems using Nesterov's dual averaging algorithm. We establish that the error of our solution after $T$ iterations is at most $\order((\spindex \log\pdim)/T)$, with natural extensions to approximate sparsity. Our results apply to locally Lipschitz losses including the logistic, exponential, hinge and least-squares losses. By recourse to statistical minimax results, we show that our convergence rates are optimal up to multiplicative constant factors. The effectiveness of our approach is also confirmed in numerical simulations, in which we compare to several baselines on a least-squares regression problem.

Stochastic Belief Propagation: A Low-Complexity Alternative to the Sum-Product Algorithm

The sum-product or belief propagation (BP) algorithm is a widely-used message-passing algorithm for computing marginal distributions in graphical models with discrete variables. At the core of the BP message updates, when applied to a graphical model with pairwise interactions, lies a matrix-vector product with complexity that is quadratic in the state dimension $d$, and requires transmission of a $(d-1)$-dimensional vector of real numbers (messages) to its neighbors. Since various applications involve very large state dimensions, such computation and communication complexities can be prohibitively complex. In this paper, we propose a low-complexity variant of BP, referred to as stochastic belief propagation (SBP). As suggested by the name, it is an adaptively randomized version of the BP message updates in which each node passes randomly chosen information to each of its neighbors. The SBP message updates reduce the computational complexity (per iteration) from quadratic to linear in $d$, without assuming any particular structure of the potentials, and also reduce the communication complexity significantly, requiring only $\log{d}$ bits transmission per edge. Moreover, we establish a number of theoretical guarantees for the performance of SBP, showing that it converges almost surely to the BP fixed point for any tree-structured graph, and for graphs with cycles satisfying a contractivity condition. In addition, for these graphical models, we provide non-asymptotic upper bounds on the convergence rate, showing that the $\ell_{\infty}$ norm of the error vector decays no slower than $O(1/\sqrt{t})$ with the number of iterations $t$ on trees and the mean square error decays as $O(1/t)$ for general graphs. These analysis show that SBP can provably yield reductions in computational and communication complexities for various classes of graphical models.

Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Optimization

We analyze convergence rates of stochastic optimization procedures for non-smooth convex optimization problems. By combining randomized smoothing techniques with accelerated gradient methods, we obtain convergence rates of stochastic optimization procedures, both in expectation and with high probability, that have optimal dependence on the variance of the gradient estimates. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first variance-based rates for non-smooth optimization. We give several applications of our results to statistical estimation problems, and provide experimental results that demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. We also describe how a combination of our algorithm with recent work on decentralized optimization yields a distributed stochastic optimization algorithm that is order-optimal.

Noisy matrix decomposition via convex relaxation: Optimal rates in high dimensions

We analyze a class of estimators based on convex relaxation for solving high-dimensional matrix decomposition problems. The observations are noisy realizations of a linear transformation $\mathfrak{X}$ of the sum of an approximately) low rank matrix $\Theta^\star$ with a second matrix $\Gamma^\star$ endowed with a complementary form of low-dimensional structure; this set-up includes many statistical models of interest, including factor analysis, multi-task regression, and robust covariance estimation. We derive a general theorem that bounds the Frobenius norm error for an estimate of the pair $(\Theta^\star, \Gamma^\star)$ obtained by solving a convex optimization problem that combines the nuclear norm with a general decomposable regularizer. Our results utilize a "spikiness" condition that is related to but milder than singular vector incoherence. We specialize our general result to two cases that have been studied in past work: low rank plus an entrywise sparse matrix, and low rank plus a columnwise sparse matrix. For both models, our theory yields non-asymptotic Frobenius error bounds for both deterministic and stochastic noise matrices, and applies to matrices $\Theta^\star$ that can be exactly or approximately low rank, and matrices $\Gamma^\star$ that can be exactly or approximately sparse. Moreover, for the case of stochastic noise matrices and the identity observation operator, we establish matching lower bounds on the minimax error. The sharpness of our predictions is confirmed by numerical simulations.