Benchmarking Artificial Intelligence Models for Daily Coastal Hypoxia Forecasting

Coastal hypoxia, especially in the northern part of Gulf of Mexico, presents a persistent ecological and economic concern. Seasonal models offer coarse forecasts that miss the fine-scale variability needed for daily, responsive ecosystem management. We present study that compares four deep learning architectures for daily hypoxia classification: Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM), Medformer (Medical Transformer), Spatio-Temporal Transformer (ST-Transformer), and Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). We trained our models with twelve years of daily hindcast data from 2009-2020 Our training data consists of 2009-2020 hindcast data from a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model. Similarly, we use hindcast data from 2020 through 2024 as a test data. We constructed classification models incorporating water column stratification, sediment oxygen consumption, and temperature-dependent decomposition rates. We evaluated each architectures using the same data preprocessing, input/output formulation, and validation protocols. Each model achieved high classification accuracy and strong discriminative ability with ST-Transformer achieving the highest performance across all metrics and tests periods (AUC-ROC: 0.982-0.992). We also employed McNemar's method to identify statistically significant differences in model predictions. Our contribution is a reproducible framework for operational real-time hypoxia prediction that can support broader efforts in the environmental and ocean modeling systems community and in ecosystem resilience. The source code is available https://github.com/rmagesh148/hypoxia-ai/

COMBOOD: A Semiparametric Approach for Detecting Out-of-distribution Data for Image Classification

Identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) data at inference time is crucial for many machine learning applications, especially for automation. We present a novel unsupervised semi-parametric framework COMBOOD for OOD detection with respect to image recognition. Our framework combines signals from two distance metrics, nearest-neighbor and Mahalanobis, to derive a confidence score for an inference point to be out-of-distribution. The former provides a non-parametric approach to OOD detection. The latter provides a parametric, simple, yet effective method for detecting OOD data points, especially, in the far OOD scenario, where the inference point is far apart from the training data set in the embedding space. However, its performance is not satisfactory in the near OOD scenarios that arise in practical situations. Our COMBOOD framework combines the two signals in a semi-parametric setting to provide a confidence score that is accurate both for the near-OOD and far-OOD scenarios. We show experimental results with the COMBOOD framework for different types of feature extraction strategies. We demonstrate experimentally that COMBOOD outperforms state-of-the-art OOD detection methods on the OpenOOD (both version 1 and most recent version 1.5) benchmark datasets (for both far-OOD and near-OOD) as well as on the documents dataset in terms of accuracy. On a majority of the benchmark datasets, the improvements in accuracy resulting from the COMBOOD framework are statistically significant. COMBOOD scales linearly with the size of the embedding space, making it ideal for many real-life applications.