DISCOVER: A Solver for Distributional Counterfactual Explanations

Counterfactual explanations (CE) explain model decisions by identifying input modifications that lead to different predictions. Most existing methods operate at the instance level. Distributional Counterfactual Explanations (DCE) extend this setting by optimizing an optimal transport objective that balances proximity to a factual input distribution and alignment to a target output distribution, with statistical certification via chance constrained bounds. However, DCE relies on gradient based optimization, while many real-world tabular pipelines are dominated by non-differentiable models. We propose DISCOVER, a model-agnostic solver for distributional counterfactual explanations. DISCOVER preserves the original DCE objective and certification while replacing gradient descent with a sparse propose-and-select search paradigm. It exploits a sample-wise decomposition of the transport objective to compute per-row impact scores and enforce a top-$k$ intervention budget, focusing edits on the most influential samples. To guide candidate generation without predictor gradients, DISCOVER introduces an OT-guided cone sampling primitive driven by input-side transport geometry. Experiments on multiple tabular datasets demonstrate strong joint alignment of input and output distributions, extending distributional counterfactual reasoning to modern black box learning pipelines. A code repository is available at https://github.com/understanding-ml/DCE.

Axiomatic On-Manifold Shapley via Optimal Generative Flows

Shapley-based attribution is critical for post-hoc XAI but suffers from off-manifold artifacts due to heuristic baselines. While generative methods attempt to address this, they often introduce geometric inefficiency and discretization drift. We propose a formal theory of on-manifold Aumann-Shapley attributions driven by optimal generative flows. We prove a representation theorem establishing the gradient line integral as the unique functional satisfying efficiency and geometric axioms, notably reparameterization invariance. To resolve path ambiguity, we select the kinetic-energy-minimizing Wasserstein-2 geodesic transporting a prior to the data distribution. This yields a canonical attribution family that recovers classical Shapley for additive models and admits provable stability bounds against flow approximation errors. By reframing baseline selection as a variational problem, our method experimentally outperforms baselines, achieving strict manifold adherence via vanishing Flow Consistency Error and superior semantic alignment characterized by Structure-Aware Total Variation. Our code is on https://github.com/cenweizhang/OTFlowSHAP.

xai-cola: A Python library for sparsifying counterfactual explanations

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is an important domain within post-hoc explainability. However, the explanations generated by most CE generators are often highly redundant. This work introduces an open-source Python library xai-cola, which provides an end-to-end pipeline for sparsifying CEs produced by arbitrary generators, reducing superfluous feature changes while preserving their validity. It offers a documented API that takes as input raw tabular data in pandas DataFrame form, a preprocessing object (for standardization and encoding), and a trained scikit-learn or PyTorch model. On this basis, users can either employ the built-in or externally imported CE generators. The library also implements several sparsification policies and includes visualization routines for analysing and comparing sparsified counterfactuals. xai-cola is released under the MIT license and can be installed from PyPI. Empirical experiments indicate that xai-cola produces sparser counterfactuals across several CE generators, reducing the number of modified features by up to 50% in our setting. The source code is available at https://github.com/understanding-ml/COLA.

Epistemic Throughput: Fundamental Limits of Attention-Constrained Inference

Recent generative and tool-using AI systems can surface a large volume of candidates at low marginal cost, yet only a small fraction can be checked carefully. This creates a decoder-side bottleneck: downstream decision-makers must form reliable posteriors from many public records under scarce attention. We formalize this regime via Attention-Constrained Inference (ACI), in which a cheap screening stage processes $K$ records and an expensive verification stage can follow up on at most $B$ of them. Under Bayes log-loss, we study the maximum achievable reduction in posterior uncertainty per window, which we call \emph{epistemic throughput}. Our main result is a ``JaKoB'' scaling law showing that epistemic throughput has a baseline term that grows linearly with verification and prevalence, and an additional \emph{information-leverage} term that scales as $\sqrt{JKB}$, where $J$ summarizes screening quality. Thus, expanding cheap screening can nonlinearly amplify scarce verification, even when informative records are rare. We further show that this scaling is tight in a weak-screening limit, and that in the sparse-verification regime ($B \ll K$), substantial leverage requires heavy-tailed score distributions; for light-tailed scores the amplification is only logarithmic.

Quantifying Model Uniqueness in Heterogeneous AI Ecosystems

As AI systems evolve from isolated predictors into complex, heterogeneous ecosystems of foundation models and specialized adapters, distinguishing genuine behavioral novelty from functional redundancy becomes a critical governance challenge. Here, we introduce a statistical framework for auditing model uniqueness based on In-Silico Quasi-Experimental Design (ISQED). By enforcing matched interventions across models, we isolate intrinsic model identity and quantify uniqueness as the Peer-Inexpressible Residual (PIER), i.e. the component of a target's behavior strictly irreducible to any stochastic convex combination of its peers, with vanishing PIER characterizing when such a routing-based substitution becomes possible. We establish the theoretical foundations of ecosystem auditing through three key contributions. First, we prove a fundamental limitation of observational logs: uniqueness is mathematically non-identifiable without intervention control. Second, we derive a scaling law for active auditing, showing that our adaptive query protocol achieves minimax-optimal sample efficiency ($dσ^2γ^{-2}\log(Nd/δ)$). Third, we demonstrate that cooperative game-theoretic methods, such as Shapley values, fundamentally fail to detect redundancy. We implement this framework via the DISCO (Design-Integrated Synthetic Control) estimator and deploy it across diverse ecosystems, including computer vision models (ResNet/ConvNeXt/ViT), large language models (BERT/RoBERTa), and city-scale traffic forecasters. These results move trustworthy AI beyond explaining single models: they establish a principled, intervention-based science of auditing and governing heterogeneous model ecosystems.

Preventing the Collapse of Peer Review Requires Verification-First AI

This paper argues that AI-assisted peer review should be verification-first rather than review-mimicking. We propose truth-coupling, i.e. how tightly venue scores track latent scientific truth, as the right objective for review tools. We formalize two forces that drive a phase transition toward proxy-sovereign evaluation: verification pressure, when claims outpace verification capacity, and signal shrinkage, when real improvements become hard to separate from noise. In a minimal model that mixes occasional high-fidelity checks with frequent proxy judgment, we derive an explicit coupling law and an incentive-collapse condition under which rational effort shifts from truth-seeking to proxy optimization, even when current decisions still appear reliable. These results motivate actions for tool builders and program chairs: deploy AI as an adversarial auditor that generates auditable verification artifacts and expands effective verification bandwidth, rather than as a score predictor that amplifies claim inflation.

Fairness Research For Machine Learning Should Integrate Societal Considerations

Enhancing fairness in machine learning (ML) systems is increasingly important nowadays. While current research focuses on assistant tools for ML pipelines to promote fairness within them, we argue that: 1) The significance of properly defined fairness measures remains underestimated; and 2) Fairness research in ML should integrate societal considerations. The reasons include that detecting discrimination is critical due to the widespread deployment of ML systems and that human-AI feedback loops amplify biases, even when only small social and political biases persist.

FairSHAP: Preprocessing for Fairness Through Attribution-Based Data Augmentation

Ensuring fairness in machine learning models is critical, particularly in high-stakes domains where biased decisions can lead to serious societal consequences. Existing preprocessing approaches generally lack transparent mechanisms for identifying which features or instances are responsible for unfairness. This obscures the rationale behind data modifications. We introduce FairSHAP, a novel pre-processing framework that leverages Shapley value attribution to improve both individual and group fairness. FairSHAP identifies fairness-critical instances in the training data using an interpretable measure of feature importance, and systematically modifies them through instance-level matching across sensitive groups. This process reduces discriminative risk - an individual fairness metric - while preserving data integrity and model accuracy. We demonstrate that FairSHAP significantly improves demographic parity and equality of opportunity across diverse tabular datasets, achieving fairness gains with minimal data perturbation and, in some cases, improved predictive performance. As a model-agnostic and transparent method, FairSHAP integrates seamlessly into existing machine learning pipelines and provides actionable insights into the sources of bias.Our code is on https://github.com/youlei202/FairSHAP.

Refining Counterfactual Explanations With Joint-Distribution-Informed Shapley Towards Actionable Minimality

Counterfactual explanations (CE) identify data points that closely resemble the observed data but produce different machine learning (ML) model outputs, offering critical insights into model decisions. Despite the diverse scenarios, goals and tasks to which they are tailored, existing CE methods often lack actionable efficiency because of unnecessary feature changes included within the explanations that are presented to users and stakeholders. We address this problem by proposing a method that minimizes the required feature changes while maintaining the validity of CE, without imposing restrictions on models or CE algorithms, whether instance- or group-based. The key innovation lies in computing a joint distribution between observed and counterfactual data and leveraging it to inform Shapley values for feature attributions (FA). We demonstrate that optimal transport (OT) effectively derives this distribution, especially when the alignment between observed and counterfactual data is unclear in used CE methods. Additionally, a counterintuitive finding is uncovered: it may be misleading to rely on an exact alignment defined by the CE generation mechanism in conducting FA. Our proposed method is validated on extensive experiments across multiple datasets, showcasing its effectiveness in refining CE towards greater actionable efficiency.

Self-Supervised Learning of Time Series Representation via Diffusion Process and Imputation-Interpolation-Forecasting Mask

Time Series Representation Learning (TSRL) focuses on generating informative representations for various Time Series (TS) modeling tasks. Traditional Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods in TSRL fall into four main categories: reconstructive, adversarial, contrastive, and predictive, each with a common challenge of sensitivity to noise and intricate data nuances. Recently, diffusion-based methods have shown advanced generative capabilities. However, they primarily target specific application scenarios like imputation and forecasting, leaving a gap in leveraging diffusion models for generic TSRL. Our work, Time Series Diffusion Embedding (TSDE), bridges this gap as the first diffusion-based SSL TSRL approach. TSDE segments TS data into observed and masked parts using an Imputation-Interpolation-Forecasting (IIF) mask. It applies a trainable embedding function, featuring dual-orthogonal Transformer encoders with a crossover mechanism, to the observed part. We train a reverse diffusion process conditioned on the embeddings, designed to predict noise added to the masked part. Extensive experiments demonstrate TSDE's superiority in imputation, interpolation, forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, and clustering. We also conduct an ablation study, present embedding visualizations, and compare inference speed, further substantiating TSDE's efficiency and validity in learning representations of TS data.