Stock Movement and Volatility Prediction from Tweets, Macroeconomic Factors and Historical Prices

Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as government-compiled statistics, to refine stock market predictions. However, prior research using tweet data for stock market prediction faces three challenges. First, the quality of tweets varies widely. While many are filled with noise and irrelevant details, only a few genuinely mirror the actual market scenario. Second, solely focusing on the historical data of a particular stock without considering its sector can lead to oversight. Stocks within the same industry often exhibit correlated price behaviors. Lastly, simply forecasting the direction of price movement without assessing its magnitude is of limited value, as the extent of the rise or fall truly determines profitability. In this paper, diverging from the conventional methods, we pioneer an ECON. The framework has following advantages: First, ECON has an adept tweets filter that efficiently extracts and decodes the vast array of tweet data. Second, ECON discerns multi-level relationships among stocks, sectors, and macroeconomic factors through a self-aware mechanism in semantic space. Third, ECON offers enhanced accuracy in predicting substantial stock price fluctuations by capitalizing on stock price movement. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.

ALERTA-Net: A Temporal Distance-Aware Recurrent Networks for Stock Movement and Volatility Prediction

For both investors and policymakers, forecasting the stock market is essential as it serves as an indicator of economic well-being. To this end, we harness the power of social media data, a rich source of public sentiment, to enhance the accuracy of stock market predictions. Diverging from conventional methods, we pioneer an approach that integrates sentiment analysis, macroeconomic indicators, search engine data, and historical prices within a multi-attention deep learning model, masterfully decoding the complex patterns inherent in the data. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.

LaTeX: Language Pattern-aware Triggering Event Detection for Adverse Experience during Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.

DG-Trans: Dual-level Graph Transformer for Spatiotemporal Incident Impact Prediction on Traffic Networks

The prompt estimation of traffic incident impacts can guide commuters in their trip planning and improve the resilience of transportation agencies' decision-making on resilience. However, it is more challenging than node-level and graph-level forecasting tasks, as it requires extracting the anomaly subgraph or sub-time-series from dynamic graphs. In this paper, we propose DG-Trans, a novel traffic incident impact prediction framework, to foresee the impact of traffic incidents through dynamic graph learning. The proposed framework contains a dual-level spatial transformer and an importance-score-based temporal transformer, and the performance of this framework is justified by two newly constructed benchmark datasets. The dual-level spatial transformer removes unnecessary edges between nodes to isolate the affected subgraph from the other nodes. Meanwhile, the importance-score-based temporal transformer identifies abnormal changes in node features, causing the predictions to rely more on measurement changes after the incident occurs. Therefore, DG-Trans is equipped with dual abilities that extract spatiotemporal dependency and identify anomaly nodes affected by incidents while removing noise introduced by benign nodes. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets verify that DG-Trans outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods, especially in extracting spatiotemporal dependency patterns and predicting traffic accident impacts. It offers promising potential for traffic incident management systems.

Bridging the Gap between Spatial and Spectral Domains: A Unified Framework for Graph Neural Networks

Deep learning's performance has been extensively recognized recently. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed to deal with graph-structural data that classical deep learning does not easily manage. Since most GNNs were created using distinct theories, direct comparisons are impossible. Prior research has primarily concentrated on categorizing existing models, with little attention paid to their intrinsic connections. The purpose of this study is to establish a unified framework that integrates GNNs based on spectral graph and approximation theory. The framework incorporates a strong integration between spatial- and spectral-based GNNs while tightly associating approaches that exist within each respective domain.

Bridging the Gap between Spatial and Spectral Domains: A Theoretical Framework for Graph Neural Networks

During the past decade, deep learning's performance has been widely recognized in a variety of machine learning tasks, ranging from image classification, speech recognition to natural language understanding. Graph neural networks (GNN) are a type of deep learning that is designed to handle non-Euclidean issues using graph-structured data that are difficult to solve with traditional deep learning techniques. The majority of GNNs were created using a variety of processes, including random walk, PageRank, graph convolution, and heat diffusion, making direct comparisons impossible. Previous studies have primarily focused on classifying current models into distinct categories, with little investigation of their internal relationships. This research proposes a unified theoretical framework and a novel perspective that can methodologically integrate existing GNN into our framework. We survey and categorize existing GNN models into spatial and spectral domains, as well as show linkages between subcategories within each domain. Further investigation reveals a strong relationship between the spatial, spectral, and subgroups of these domains.

Bridging the Gap between Spatial and Spectral Domains: A Survey on Graph Neural Networks

The success of deep learning has been widely recognized in many machine learning tasks during the last decades, ranging from image classification and speech recognition to natural language understanding. As an extension of deep learning, Graph neural networks (GNNs) are designed to solve the non-Euclidean problems on graph-structured data which can hardly be handled by general deep learning techniques. Existing GNNs under various mechanisms, such as random walk, PageRank, graph convolution, and heat diffusion, are designed for different types of graphs and problems, which makes it difficult to compare them directly. Previous GNN surveys focus on categorizing current models into independent groups, lacking analysis regarding their internal connection. This paper proposes a unified framework and provides a novel perspective that can widely fit existing GNNs into our framework methodologically. Specifically, we survey and categorize existing GNN models into the spatial and spectral domains, and reveal connections among subcategories in each domain. Further analysis establishes a strong link across the spatial and spectral domains.

TITAN: A Spatiotemporal Feature Learning Framework for Traffic Incident Duration Prediction

Critical incident stages identification and reasonable prediction of traffic incident duration are essential in traffic incident management. In this paper, we propose a traffic incident duration prediction model that simultaneously predicts the impact of the traffic incidents and identifies the critical groups of temporal features via a multi-task learning framework. First, we formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level temporal features based on traffic speed readings and then generalizes higher level features as phases of traffic incidents. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the spatial connectivity of the road network to predict the incident duration. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the orthogonality constraints, non-convexity objective, and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world traffic data and traffic incident records justify the efficacy of our model.