Business Metric-Aware Forecasting for Inventory Management

Time-series forecasts play a critical role in business planning. However, forecasters typically optimize objectives that are agnostic to downstream business goals and thus can produce forecasts misaligned with business preferences. In this work, we demonstrate that optimization of conventional forecasting metrics can often lead to sub-optimal downstream business performance. Focusing on the inventory management setting, we derive an efficient procedure for computing and optimizing proxies of common downstream business metrics in an end-to-end differentiable manner. We explore a wide range of plausible cost trade-off scenarios, and empirically demonstrate that end-to-end optimization often outperforms optimization of standard business-agnostic forecasting metrics (by up to 45.7% for a simple scaling model, and up to 54.0% for an LSTM encoder-decoder model). Finally, we discuss how our findings could benefit other business contexts.

Reinforcement Learning Driven Heuristic Optimization

Heuristic algorithms such as simulated annealing, Concorde, and METIS are effective and widely used approaches to find solutions to combinatorial optimization problems. However, they are limited by the high sample complexity required to reach a reasonable solution from a cold-start. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework to generate better initial solutions for heuristic algorithms using reinforcement learning (RL), named RLHO. We augment the ability of heuristic algorithms to greedily improve upon an existing initial solution generated by RL, and demonstrate novel results where RL is able to leverage the performance of heuristics as a learning signal to generate better initialization. We apply this framework to Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Simulated Annealing (SA). We conduct a series of experiments on the well-known NP-complete bin packing problem, and show that the RLHO method outperforms our baselines. We show that on the bin packing problem, RL can learn to help heuristics perform even better, allowing us to combine the best parts of both approaches.