Language Model Prompt Selection via Simulation Optimization

With the advancement in generative language models, the selection of prompts has gained significant attention in recent years. A prompt is an instruction or description provided by the user, serving as a guide for the generative language model in content generation. Despite existing methods for prompt selection that are based on human labor, we consider facilitating this selection through simulation optimization, aiming to maximize a pre-defined score for the selected prompt. Specifically, we propose a two-stage framework. In the first stage, we determine a feasible set of prompts in sufficient numbers, where each prompt is represented by a moderate-dimensional vector. In the subsequent stage for evaluation and selection, we construct a surrogate model of the score regarding the moderate-dimensional vectors that represent the prompts. We propose sequentially selecting the prompt for evaluation based on this constructed surrogate model. We prove the consistency of the sequential evaluation procedure in our framework. We also conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework, providing practical instructions for implementation.

Causal inference with Machine Learning-Based Covariate Representation

Utilizing covariate information has been a powerful approach to improve the efficiency and accuracy for causal inference, which support massive amount of randomized experiments run on data-driven enterprises. However, state-of-art approaches can become practically unreliable when the dimension of covariate increases to just 50, whereas experiments on large platforms can observe even higher dimension of covariate. We propose a machine-learning-assisted covariate representation approach that can effectively make use of historical experiment or observational data that are run on the same platform to understand which lower dimensions can effectively represent the higher-dimensional covariate. We then propose design and estimation methods with the covariate representation. We prove statistically reliability and performance guarantees for the proposed methods. The empirical performance is demonstrated using numerical experiments.