Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Abstract:Outdoor vision-language navigation (VLN) in long-range, open-world environments is frequently disrupted by semantic-cue interruptions, where informative goal cues become sparse, occluded, or leave the field of view. Once such cues disappear, agents enter a cue-free phase and often degrade into backtracking, oscillatory headings, or aimless exploration. While memory-based methods attempt to bridge these gaps, they often fail under traversability-driven detours: the remembered cue direction may be infeasible, forcing detours that prolong cue-free phases and gradually render robot-centric cues stale and implicit histories blurred. This makes traversability a stability condition for maintaining goal-directed guidance, rather than merely a local safety concern. We propose a unified outdoor VLN framework that survives semantic-cue interruptions by maintaining traversability-consistent executable guidance throughout prolonged cue-free phases. Specifically, our method extracts semantic bearings from visibility-gated goal or exploration cues and grounds them into executable headings using a real-time near-field traversability profile, providing goal-consistent feasible guidance beyond reject-only safety filtering. To prevent guidance degradation during detours, we lift intermittent 2D evidence into a world-aligned 3D cue memory with an uncertainty-aware readout mechanism, ensuring guidance remains continuously reachable and stable as the robot moves. We evaluate the framework on quadrupedal and wheeled platforms over 600--1000 m routes. Our method improves simulation success rate by over 10 percentage points over the strongest baseline and achieves a real-world success rate of 40%, compared to 17.5% for the strongest baseline, with substantially higher robustness during prolonged cue-free intervals.
Abstract:Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage portfolios are exposed to various forms of data drift caused by changing borrower behaviour, macroeconomic conditions, policy regimes and so on. This study investigates the impact of data drift on survival-based credit risk models and proposes a dynamic joint modelling framework to improve robustness under non-stationary environments. The proposed model integrates a longitudinal behavioural marker derived from balance dynamics with a discrete-time hazard formulation, combined with landmark one-hot encoding and isotonic calibration. Three types of data drift (sudden, incremental and recurring) are simulated and analysed on mortgage loan datasets from Freddie Mac. Experiments and corresponding evidence show that the proposed landmark-based joint model consistently outperforms classical survival models, tree-based drift-adaptive learners and gradient boosting methods in terms of discrimination and calibration across all drift scenarios, which confirms the superiority of our model design.