Comparing skill of historical rainfall data based monsoon rainfall prediction in India with NCEP-NWP forecasts

In this draft we consider the problem of forecasting rainfall across India during the four monsoon months, one day as well as three days in advance. We train neural networks using historical daily gridded precipitation data for India obtained from IMD for the time period $1901- 2022$, at a spatial resolution of $1^{\circ} \times 1^{\circ}$. This is compared with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts obtained from NCEP (National Centre for Environmental Prediction) available for the period 2011-2022. We conduct a detailed country wide analysis and separately analyze some of the most populated cities in India. Our conclusion is that forecasts obtained by applying deep learning to historical rainfall data are more accurate compared to NWP forecasts as well as predictions based on persistence. On average, compared to our predictions, forecasts from NCEP-NWP model have about 34% higher error for a single day prediction, and over 68% higher error for a three day prediction. Similarly, persistence estimates report a 29% higher error in a single day forecast, and over 54% error in a three day forecast. We further observe that data up to 20 days in the past is useful in reducing errors of one and three day forecasts, when a transformer based learning architecture, and to a lesser extent when an LSTM is used. A key conclusion suggested by our preliminary analysis is that NWP forecasts can be substantially improved upon through more and diverse data relevant to monsoon prediction combined with carefully selected neural network architecture.

Simplicity Bias in 1-Hidden Layer Neural Networks

Recent works have demonstrated that neural networks exhibit extreme simplicity bias(SB). That is, they learn only the simplest features to solve a task at hand, even in the presence of other, more robust but more complex features. Due to the lack of a general and rigorous definition of features, these works showcase SB on semi-synthetic datasets such as Color-MNIST, MNIST-CIFAR where defining features is relatively easier. In this work, we rigorously define as well as thoroughly establish SB for one hidden layer neural networks. More concretely, (i) we define SB as the network essentially being a function of a low dimensional projection of the inputs (ii) theoretically, we show that when the data is linearly separable, the network primarily depends on only the linearly separable ($1$-dimensional) subspace even in the presence of an arbitrarily large number of other, more complex features which could have led to a significantly more robust classifier, (iii) empirically, we show that models trained on real datasets such as Imagenette and Waterbirds-Landbirds indeed depend on a low dimensional projection of the inputs, thereby demonstrating SB on these datasets, iv) finally, we present a natural ensemble approach that encourages diversity in models by training successive models on features not used by earlier models, and demonstrate that it yields models that are significantly more robust to Gaussian noise.