Multimodal Analytics of Cybersecurity Crisis Preparation Exercises: What Predicts Success?

Instructional alignment, the match between intended cognition and enacted activity, is central to effective instruction but hard to operationalize at scale. We examine alignment in cybersecurity simulations using multimodal traces from 23 teams (76 students) across five exercise sessions. Study 1 codes objectives and team emails with Bloom's taxonomy and models the completion of key exercise tasks with generalized linear mixed models. Alignment, defined as the discrepancy between required and enacted Bloom levels, predicts success, whereas the Bloom category alone does not predict success once discrepancy is considered. Study 2 compares predictive feature families using grouped cross-validation and l1-regularized logistic regression. Text embeddings and log features outperform Bloom-only models (AUC~0.74 and 0.71 vs. 0.55), and their combination performs best (Test AUC~0.80), with Bloom frequencies adding little. Overall, the work offers a measure of alignment for simulations and shows that multimodal traces best forecast performance, while alignment provides interpretable diagnostic insight.

Detecting Unsuccessful Students in Cybersecurity Exercises in Two Different Learning Environments

This full paper in the research track evaluates the usage of data logged from cybersecurity exercises in order to predict students who are potentially at risk of performing poorly. Hands-on exercises are essential for learning since they enable students to practice their skills. In cybersecurity, hands-on exercises are often complex and require knowledge of many topics. Therefore, students may miss solutions due to gaps in their knowledge and become frustrated, which impedes their learning. Targeted aid by the instructor helps, but since the instructor's time is limited, efficient ways to detect struggling students are needed. This paper develops automated tools to predict when a student is having difficulty. We formed a dataset with the actions of 313 students from two countries and two learning environments: KYPO CRP and EDURange. These data are used in machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in exercises deployed in these environments. After extracting features from the data, we trained and cross-validated eight classifiers for predicting the exercise outcome and evaluated their predictive power. The contribution of this paper is comparing two approaches to feature engineering, modeling, and classification performance on data from two learning environments. Using the features from either learning environment, we were able to detect and distinguish between successful and struggling students. A decision tree classifier achieved the highest balanced accuracy and sensitivity with data from both learning environments. The results show that activity data from cybersecurity exercises are suitable for predicting student success. In a potential application, such models can aid instructors in detecting struggling students and providing targeted help. We publish data and code for building these models so that others can adopt or adapt them.

Student Assessment in Cybersecurity Training Automated by Pattern Mining and Clustering

Hands-on cybersecurity training allows students and professionals to practice various tools and improve their technical skills. The training occurs in an interactive learning environment that enables completing sophisticated tasks in full-fledged operating systems, networks, and applications. During the training, the learning environment allows collecting data about trainees' interactions with the environment, such as their usage of command-line tools. These data contain patterns indicative of trainees' learning processes, and revealing them allows to assess the trainees and provide feedback to help them learn. However, automated analysis of these data is challenging. The training tasks feature complex problem-solving, and many different solution approaches are possible. Moreover, the trainees generate vast amounts of interaction data. This paper explores a dataset from 18 cybersecurity training sessions using data mining and machine learning techniques. We employed pattern mining and clustering to analyze 8834 commands collected from 113 trainees, revealing their typical behavior, mistakes, solution strategies, and difficult training stages. Pattern mining proved suitable in capturing timing information and tool usage frequency. Clustering underlined that many trainees often face the same issues, which can be addressed by targeted scaffolding. Our results show that data mining methods are suitable for analyzing cybersecurity training data. Educational researchers and practitioners can apply these methods in their contexts to assess trainees, support them, and improve the training design. Artifacts associated with this research are publicly available.